Black Swan Trips Alarm, Fouls Moderate Outlook on China’s Rise
This excerpt is from Dr. Sutter’s article, which was originally published in PacNet #41, part of CSIS’ Pacific Forum, on June 20, 2018
I have long had a moderate outlook on China’s rise, a view that did not fundamentally change despite widely publicized challenges China poses to US leadership. The constraints on and limitations of China’s actual power and influence remain substantial. China is not dominant in Asia and is not in a position to undertake global leadership, replacing the United States. The US retains the capacity to counter or otherwise deal with China’s challenges.
Unfortunately, my thinking did not take sufficient account of China’s headlong advance to control the advanced technological industries seen as essential to US power.
