[Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture] The Future of American Policy Towards Southeast Asia

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

4:30 pm – 6:00 pm

City View Room

Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E Street NW Washington, D.C. 20052

The lecture will analyze broad trends in the US approach towards Southeast Asia and the drivers of these trends in the context of global and regional developments. These developments include, but are not confined to, US-China strategic competition. It will suggest that American policy towards Southeast Asia and the region’s responses may offer clues towards the development of the broader Indo-Pacific.

Speaker

Bilahari Kausikan is a Singaporean academic and retired diplomat. He was Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the former ambassador to the UN and Russia. Bilahari is currently Chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.

Bilahari Kausikan joined the civil service in 1981. He was appointed as Singapore’s ambassador to the newly formed Russian Federation in 1994, and subsequently as ambassador to the United Nations (1995 – 1998). Bilahari was appointed Second Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2001, and promoted to Permanent Secretary in 2010.

After a 37-year career in Singapore’s foreign relations, Bilahari is known to speak his mind about the issues confronting the country and the wider region. He believes the civil service has become too accommodative and argues that ‘when you are polite, nothing gets done.’ He has called for Singapore to be more muscular in its own delicate diplomatic relations, saying that true neutrality means ‘knowing your own interests, taking positions based on your own interests and not allowing others to define your interests for you by default’. Furthermore, he warns of the danger of passivity in relation to the current US-China split, saying there is no ‘sweet spot’ to keep both the Chinese and Americans ‘happy’.

Bilahari studied political science at the University of Singapore before receiving a scholarship to embark on a PhD in international relations at Columbia University. However, he decided against an academic career and returned to Singapore to join the Foreign Ministry. He is the author of Singapore is Not an Island: Views on Singapore Foreign Policy (2017).

 

Moderator

A picture of William Wise

Janet Steele is professor of Media and Public Affairs and International Affairs, and the interim director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. She received her Ph.D. in History from the Johns Hopkins University, and focuses on how culture is communicated through the mass media.

Dr. Steele is a frequent visitor to Southeast Asia where she lectures on topics ranging from the role of the press in a democratic society to specialized courses on narrative journalism. Her book, “Wars Within: The Story of Tempo, an Independent Magazine in Soeharto’s Indonesia,” focuses on Tempo magazine and its relationship to the politics and culture of New Order Indonesia. “Mediating Islam, Cosmopolitan Journalisms in Muslim Southeast Asia,” explores the relationship between journalism and Islam in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Awarded two Fulbright teaching and research grants to Indonesia and a third to Serbia, she has served as a State Department speaker-specialist in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei, the Philippines, East Timor, Taiwan, Burma, Sudan, Egypt, India, Bangladesh, Jamaica, and Kosovo. The author of numerous articles on journalism theory and practice, her 2014 book, “Email Dari Amerika,” (Email from America), is a collection of newspaper columns written in Indonesian and originally published in the newspaper Surya. Her most recent book, forthcoming in October 2023, is called “Malaysiakini and the power of independent media in Malaysia.”

 

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A graphic for North Korea, Japan, and Biopolitics of Repatriation

5/4/23 | Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture: North Korea, Japan and Biopolitics of Repatriation

Thursday, May 4, 2023

4:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET

Lindner Commons, 602

Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E Street NW Washington, D.C. 20052

On December 14, 1959, amidst much fanfare and tears, the first repatriation boat carried thousands of Koreans from Niigata, Japan, to Cheongjin, North Korea. In the remaining two weeks of December 1959 alone, a total of three trips were made, transporting 2,942 persons to North Korea. Between 1959 and1984, a total of 93,340 persons were relocated from Japan to North Korea. This number included Koreans who had moved from Korea to Japan during the colonial period and their descendants, including family members who had been born in Japan, as well as some 1,830 Japanese spouses; including the descendants of Japanese spouses, the estimate total of about 6,800 Japanese citizens were repatriated to North Korea over the course of this process. Most Koreans who repatriated from Japan to North Korea originated from southern provinces in the peninsula, i.e., today’s South Korea. Reflecting recent declassification of the International Committee for Red Cross papers, scholars have revisited this issue, yet questions remain: how should we understand this phenomenon? In this presentation, Sonia Ryang approaches this question from multiple angles and addresses the issues of power and forms of life.

Registration is free and open to the public.

This event will be recorded and will be available on the Sigur Center YouTube channel after the event.

Speaker

Sonia Ryang was born in Japan to Korean parents and grew up speaking both Korean and Japanese. Ryang received a Ph.D. degree in Social Anthropology from Cambridge University, England, and worked as a Research Fellow at the Research School for Pacific and Asian Studies, the Australian National University, before being appointed as Assistant Professor of Anthropology at Johns Hopkins University. Ryang moved to the University of Iowa as an endowed chair of Korean Studies and professor of Anthropology. At Iowa, she directed the Center for Asian and Pacific Studies and also served as the Director of Academic Programs in the University of Iowa International Programs. She came to Rice in 2014 as the Director of the Chao Center for Asian Studies; after six years of directorship, she joined the Department of Transnational Asian Studies, her home department.

She has been elected the President of the Society for East Asian Anthropology (2020-2022).

Sonia Ryang is a social anthropologist by training, having obtained her PhD from Cambridge University in 1995. She began her anthropological career with research on the Korean minority in Japan as her primary focus of investigation. While, in many senses, this field of research continues to constitute the core of her work, she now also concerns herself with a much broader set of conceptual and ontological questions pertaining to human existence, encompassing ethnic minorities, diaspora, totalitarianism, ideology, romantic (and other forms of) love, language, food, and, more recently, science. While her books explore a wide range of themes, they are all underpinned by a desire to explore and elucidate the socio-historical functions and materiality of ideas that humans have created and subjected themselves to through the self-imposition of various rules, codes, and institutions. While this human journey has been marked by countless demonstrations of imagination and ingenuity, it has also witnessed innumerable examples of tragic error and loss. Sonia’s scholarship tries to address these. Thus, it is unequivocally interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary in nature and orientation, combining area studies, literature, history, gender studies, diaspora and transnational studies, philosophy, and ethics, among others. Geographically, she has focused on Korea (North and South) and Japan (the Korean diaspora in Japan) throughout her career. More recently, envisioning the concept of transnational Asia, she has begun to explore the best means by which the boundaries between Asia and Asian America can be undone, for, when viewed from multiple angles, such a distinction is rapidly becoming an artificial one.

With the grant funding by the National Science Foundation (Proposal ID: BCS-1357207) Sonia Ryang has recently finished a project which forms the sequel to her 2012 book on North Korea’s cultural logic, Reading North Korea: An Ethnological inquiry (Harvard University Press, 2012). The book, based on this research, will be published from the University of Hawaii Press in 2021, under the title Reading North Korea. With the Academy of Korean Studies funding (AKS-2020-R24) Sonia Ryang is currently working on a research that reconsiders the repatriation of Koreans from Japan to North Korea (1959 through 1984).

Moderator

Gregg A. Brazinsky works on U.S.-East Asian relations and East Asian international history. He is interested in the flow of commerce, ideas, and culture among Asian countries and across the Pacific. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese and Korean. He is the author of two books: Winning the Third World (2017), which focuses on Sino-American Rivalry in the Third World and Nation Building in South Korea (2007), which explores U.S.-South Korean relations during the Cold War. Currently, he is working on two other book projects. The first examines American nation-building in Asia during the Cold War. The second explores Sino-North Korean relations between 1949 and 1992 and focuses specifically on the development of cultural and economic ties between the two countries. He has received numerous fellowships to support his research including the Kluge Fellowship from the Library of Congress, the Smith Richardson Foundation junior faculty fellowship, and a fellowship from the Woodrow Wilson Center. Professor Brazinsky also currently serves as the director of the George Washington Cold War Group.

As director of the Asian Studies Program, Professor Brazinsky has attracted some of the brightest students from around the country and the world who share a commitment to pursuing careers related to Asia. He helped to launch a special mentoring program for Asian Studies MA students and has worked to expand fellowship and professional opportunities for students in the program.

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event banner for the 2022 Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture

4/4/2022 | The 25th Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture with Prasenjit Duara

Worldviews and Planetary Politics: Gardens, Jungles and Oceans

Monday, April 4, 2022

5:00 PM – 6:30 PM EDT

Lindner Family Commons

1957 E ST NW Room 602

NOTE: All non-GW affiliated attendees must comply with GW’s COVID-19 policy in order to attend this event, including full vaccination and masking indoors.

About the Event

Contemporary world politics is structured around the world order of nation-states in turn founded largely upon a Newtonian cosmology and an associated worldview. I develop a conceptual framework around the ‘epistemic engine’ which organizes and circulates the cosmological and institutional structures of Enlightenment modernity. Subsequently, I explore how the imperial Chinese world order– functional until at least the late 19th century–reveals a different cosmology shaping a different world order and politics. I also explore the contemporary PRC view of the world order probing the extent to which its historical experiences can be seen to re-shape the hegemonic epistemic engine. In the final section, I draw from a paradigm of ‘oceanic temporality’ to grasp counter-finalities generated by the epistemic engine on the earth and the ocean itself. Can the counter-flows of social movements allow us to imagine what Katzenstein calls a post-Enlightenment, hyper-humanist cosmology?

Speaker

headshot of Prasenjit Duara in professional attire

Prasenjit Duara is the Oscar Tang Chair of East Asian Studies at Duke University. He was born and educated in India and received his PhD in Chinese history from Harvard University. He was previously Professor and Chair of the Dept of History and Chair of the Committee on Chinese Studies at the University of Chicago (1991-2008). Subsequently, he became Raffles Professor of Humanities and Director, Asia Research Institute at National University of Singapore (2008-2015).

In 1988, he published Culture, Power and the State: Rural North China, 1900-1942 (Stanford Univ Press) which won the Fairbank Prize of the AHA and the Levenson Prize of the AAS, USA. Among his other books are Rescuing History from the Nation (U Chicago 1995), Sovereignty and Authenticity: Manchukuo and the East Asian Modern (Rowman 2003) and most recently, The Crisis of Global Modernity: Asian Traditions and a Sustainable Future (Cambridge 2014). He has edited Decolonization: Now and Then (Routledge, 2004) and co-edited A Companion to Global Historical Thought with Viren Murthy and Andrew Sartori (John Wiley, 2014). His work has been widely translated into Chinese, Japanese, Korean and the European languages.

Moderator

Gregg Brazinsky in professional attire

Gregg Brazinsky (he/him) is Professor of History and International Affairs. He is director of the Asian Studies Program, acting director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, and acting co-director of the East Asia National Resource Center. He is the author of two books: Nation Building in South Korea: Koreans, Americans, and the Making of a Democracy and Winning the Third World: Sino-American Rivalry during the Cold War. His articles have appeared in numerous journals including Diplomatic History and the Journal of Korean Studies. He has written op-eds for The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune and several other media outlets. He is currently working on two books. The first explores American nation building in Asia–especially Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. The second explores Sino-North Korean relations during the Cold War.

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logo of the Elliott School of International Affairs at GW

05/05/2016: The 21st Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture: China’s Rise and the Challenge to East Asian Security with Professor Thomas J. Christensen

Thursday, May 5, 2016

5:30 PM – 7:00 PM EDT

Harry Harding Auditorium – Room 213

Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052

About the Event

Concerns that a rising China will attempt to drive America from East Asia or even become a global superpower rival of the United States are both common and misplaced. But China is already powerful enough to destabilize a region of great importance to the United States and the world. China’s impressive growth in military power projection capability and its ability to put at greater risk forward deployed U.S. forces and bases in Asia pose complex challenges for the United States and its allies and security partners. The situation is not as severe or as dangerous as the Cold War. China is not an adversary of the United States. But a combination of geography, psychology, domestic politics, and military technologies renders coercive diplomacy in 21st century EastAsia even more complicated than it was between the superpower camps in the last three decades of the Cold War. The United States and its regional partners face significant and growing difficulties in dissuading China from attempting to solve its many sovereignty disputes through coercion or the use of force. A successful strategy will require a strong U.S. regional presence combined with assurances that the purpose of that presence is not to prevent China’s continued rise to prominence on the international stage.

 

Thomas J. Christensen is William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War and Director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University. At Princeton he is also faculty director of the Masters of Public Policy Program and the Truman Scholars Program. From 2006-2008 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security. His most recent book, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (W.W. Norton, 2015) was an editors’ choice at the New York Times Book Review and was selected as “Book of the Week” on CNN”s Fareed Zakaria GPS. Christensen received his B.A. with honors in History from Haverford College, M.A. in International Relations from the University of Pennsylvania, and Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University. He is currently the Chair of the Editorial Board of the Nancy B. Tucker and Warren I. Cohen Book Series on the United States in Asia at Columbia University Press. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Board for the Schwarzman Scholars Program. Professor Christensen is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a Non-Resident Senior Scholar at the Brookings Institution. In 2002 he was presented with a Distinguished Public Service Award by the United States Department of State.

Transcript

Bruce Dickson:
I learned that 15, 20 minutes ago. With that we were expecting to have more people but given the fire in the Metro, people who tried to get here may not be able to get here. It’s been a great season for Metro hasn’t it. There was one fire and one delay after another. My name is Bruce Dixon. I’m director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. This evening’s event is our annual event remembering Gaston Sigur, both his contribution to GW as well as his involvement in US public service. Gaston Sigur received his PhD in history from the University of Michigan. After which he worked for the Asia Foundation in different locales around the world. He came to GW in 1972 both to teach and to direct, what at that time was the Institute for Sino-Soviet Studies. He was in that role for about 10 years when he was chosen by President Ronald Reagan to become the Senior Director of Asian Affairs on the National Security Council and later became Special Assistant to the President for Asian Affairs.

Bruce Dickson:
He was out of government briefly. Returned to the GW and then went back into government, both as a senior advisor but also Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. While he had that position in the mid ’80s during the Reagan administration, was credited with major achievements in promoting the US Japan relationship as well as having a significant impact on democratization in South Korea. After the 1988 election, when the first Bush administration came into being, President George H. W. Bush appointed him to continue serving as Assistant Secretary of State.

Bruce Dickson:
He finally retired from public service in 1989 and returned to GW. Although 1989, remember at the time the world was changing. What used to be the Sino-Soviet Institute quickly was no longer appropriate, given the change of times. What had been the Sino-Soviet Institute was split into two. One half what is now the Institute for European Russian Eurasian studies, the Soviet half of the Institute. Then the Sigur Center evolved on what had been the Sino half of the Institute. It was originally from the beginning named in honor of Gaston Sigur. The original name was the Gaston Sigur Center for East Asian Studies and was later shortened to simply to the Sigur Center for Asian Studies to be more encompassing, not just an East Asia but South and Southeast Asia as well.

Bruce Dickson:
This event is meant to both memorialize his achievements and his contributions as well as a way of in doing so, having a speaker who had similar profile as Gaston Sigur did in terms of having a bigger role in public service as well as a strong academic background. Before introducing our speaker today, I want to introduce and highlight a few other people who have been a prominent part in the study of Asian studies here at GW. First of all, in the lobby of our center, we have a much larger version of this photograph. Which is with Gaston Sigur meeting in the oval office with President Reagan at that time, Vice President Bush and Secretary of State, George Shultz. We’ve got a much larger version in our lobby, but we want to provide this copy of it to his family. We’re fortunate tonight to have Gaston’s wife, Mrs. Estelle Sigur here, son Paul Sigur. I’d like to share this photo and give it to you for your taking. I also want to recognize Bill Johnson who was the original Associate Director of the Sigur Center. He had been himself a long time professor here at GW and was involved both in the founding of the center and its development in its early years. Bill, thank you for being here. Thank you for your contribution over the years.

Bruce Dickson:
We’re fortunate tonight to have as a speaker, Thomas Christensen. Tom is professor. A William P Boswell professor of Rural politics of Peace and War in Princeton University and also Director of Princeton’s China in the World Program. Also Director of the Masters of Public Policy program and the Truman Scholars program. One of the longest business cards probably you can have. From 2006 to 2008 he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the second Bush administration. With particular responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His most recent book was entitled the China Challenge, Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power, which came out last year. It was an editor’s choice at the New York Times book review. Selected as book of the week on CNN’s GPS with Fareed Zakaria. Tom is a life member of Accounts on Foreign Relations and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Presented in 2002 with a distinguished public service award by the US Department of State. It’s hard to imagine anyone who sort of exhibits the characteristics of Gaston Sigur that we are here to celebrate. So with that, Tom Christensen.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Thanks so much, Bruce for your overly kind introduction. I’m really honored to give this talk here because of the person that it honors. I’m very honored by the presence of the Sigur family. Somebody who made an enormous impact on US foreign policy towards Asia and was a true scholar academic leader. A role model for me in my career, and it’s great to be here in the Harriet Harding auditorium because Harriet Harding was a role model for me as an academic. To see David Shambaugh here, I think he shares that with me, that Harriet was someone who exhibited the way it should be done when you studying US China relations as a scholar. It’s a tremendous honor for me to be here. Before I start, I have to say I still work for the state department as a part time advisor. I have to give a disclaimer because this is being recorded, that all the views are my own and not those of the state department or the U S government. My wife always jokes that anybody who knows your views would know that they don’t represent anybody else’s.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I have to say that. Now it’s done. These are my views. Today what I’m going to talk about is the the regional security environment in Asia, particularly for the United States, its allies and its security partners. which is a large group of nations when you include all of those. How does the rise of China pose challenges for regional stability for all of those actors? I think the real regional security challenge is trying to discourage China, dissuade China from settling its many disputes with its neighbors through coercion and the use of force and thereby destabilizing the region.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That’s very important to the United States and obviously to its regional allies and partners. I think that this challenge is somewhat different than the challenge you’ll read about in the media. The challenge that you’ll read about in punditry circles and sometimes even in academia. What you’ll often read about, is a concerted effort by China to drive the United States out of East Asia entirely, on the one hand, or an effort or a reality where China will become a global challenge or superpower challenger to US leadership around the world and will become a problem for the United States and regions everywhere.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I don’t see either of those challenges as particularly pressing for the next couple of decades. I think that this other challenge is real and present and it’s going to get more intense over the next several years. The reason I say that is I see no persistent evidence that China has as a doctrine or a strategy to drive the United States out of East Asia entirely, in the near term. I don’t see any capabilities that China has, if you do a full net assessment of China’s capabilities that would allow China to become a global challenger to US security interests around the world in the next couple of decades, even if China were so inclined. When you do a net assessment, I can talk about in the Q and A if you like, of military power, economic power, and particularly diplomatic power, where the United States has 60 plus allies and China has North Korea. It doesn’t look like China’s poised to have that kind of global competitive power, even if it were so to choose.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That’s where the good news ends because China doesn’t need to be a peer competitor of the United States to pose a challenge to the U S interests and who in the military sense for deployed U S forces. It is already powerful enough to destabilize East Asia today. That power is only going to grow over the next several years. I think that what the United States and its allies need to do is to dissuade China from using that capacity to try to settle its many disputes with its neighbors in a way that would destabilize this region. That is important, not just to the United States and its regional allies, but the whole world.

Thomas J. Christensen:
The world is highly integrated in a way it’s never been before. When real scholars talk about pre-World Rwanda, Europe, and they said there was a lot of trade interdependence and it didn’t prevent conflict. They’re really exaggerating the analogies to today, because today the world is much more interdependent. So, if East Asia goes in a bad direction, the global economy and the global stakes will be very negatively effected.

Thomas J. Christensen:
What we have in East Asia today is a rising China that you know about from the economic sphere? In the military sphere, it’s rather dramatic as well. China has had a fast growth in its economy since 1978, but it’s had a very fast growth in its military capacity since particularly 1999. It’s a key year in China’s military modernization. What was traditionally a military that was based on two things, a land army that had its dual purpose. I want you to focus on the dual purpose. The protection of the Chinese communist party against domestic and international enemies, right? It’s a party army. It’s not a national army. It’s designed to protect the Chinese communist party against domestic and international enemies. That’s the traditional army and that is supplemented with a relatively rudimentary nuclear deterrent against nuclear powers in the day. By public reports, a couple of dozen liquid fuel, intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach targets like the United States or the former Soviet Union.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Again, according to public reports, with warheads that were separated from those missiles. they would have a long response time as a kind of minimum deterrent against a nuclear attack against the PRC. That’s the traditional military. What’s happened particularly since the late 1990s is China is able to get off shore with military power into the East China sea, in the South China sea in a way that it couldn’t. It has developed these power protection capabilities with its Navy, it’s Air Force, it’s road mobile, accurately tipped ballistic missiles, conventionally tipped ballistic missiles. I’ll talk in a moment about the nuclear tipped missiles.

Thomas J. Christensen:
It continues to modernize its nuclear force and it’s using a solid road mobile missiles now, instead of those liquid fueled ones. Which would have a much shorter response time in a crisis. Therefore provide a much more robust nuclear deterrent against actors who might try to use conventional or nuclear forces to denude China’s nuclear deterrent. China is able to get off shore with these forces, with these Air Forces, with these Navy forces and with the now strategic rocket force, formerly the second artillery to raise costs to superior military forces of the United States in conjunction with its allies.

Thomas J. Christensen:
These are asymmetric capabilities according to China’s own doctrinal writings. Chinese doctrinal writers recognize that the most likely great power adversary that China will face. They don’t use word the United States usually, but it’s pretty clear who they’re talking about, has superior power to the Chinese military. What they’re trying to do is design asymmetric strategies to leverage a weaker military force to achieve political goals against that superior. I say that because a lot of American writings will talk about China closing the gap with the United States overall and maybe keeping the United States from operating at all in the East Asia region under terms like anti-access area denial, which is the Pentagon’s A2/AD phrase. I think some of those phrases exaggerate contemporary Chinese military power in a way that actually provides China more coercive power than it has earned.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Because China’s goal is to make the United States think twice about projecting power to the region by raising costs and by calling it anti access area denial. It kind of implies that China has the capability to physically prevent the United States from projecting power in the region. I don’t think that’s true. The Chinese doctrinal writings don’t portray it that way. They talk about deterring, delaying American intervention and reversing the American decision to intervene if it so chooses, which is consequential enough. I’m not downplaying the importance of those capabilities and doctrines. That’s consequential enough. We don’t need to come up with more dramatic terms to describe it.

Thomas J. Christensen:
The way that China has developed these capabilities is to develop relatively high tech systems in certain areas that pose challenges to the superior US forces. I talked before about accurate conventionally tipped ballistic missiles, road mobile systems, including according to public reports in recent years, the ability to attack moving targets at sea with a ballistic missile. Because the ballistic missile when it reenters the atmosphere is able to do terminal guidance toward a target.

Thomas J. Christensen:
This is important because one of the US advantages around the world is the ability to project Naval aviation power on aircraft carriers to distant places. And if those aircraft carriers are at greater risk, that might give a future U S president pause about putting those carriers in those places to project power. Another capability is submarines. Not quite as high tech, but quite effective. China has imported and reverse engineered various Russian diesel electric submarine technologies that pose challenges to forward deployed US Navy forces. Which again are superior. But now are challenged and the costs of deployment of projecting US power in that region is greater.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Obviously when you’re talking about an ally like Japan, it’s a direct problem for their Navy when China has these submarine capabilities. Those submarines can launch various weapon systems that are quite sophisticated. They can launch submarine launched cruise missiles, some relatively sophisticated ones, especially in recent years. That can pose challenges to forward deployed forces. They have a fairly sophisticated torpedoes and they can lay fairly sophisticated sea mines in a kind of blockade scenario for say a Taiwan conflict that could pose real challenges for what would again otherwise be superior US forces.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Then there are cruise missiles on boats, some fast boats that the Chinese have developed. They can travel in large numbers and those cruise missiles can pose challenges as well. Advanced aircraft, fourth generation aircraft that can again get off the coast into the waters around China and air defenses which I think are underappreciated. China has first imported and then reverse engineered some very sophisticated air defense systems that basically put a kind of umbrella off the Chinese coast and make it more difficult and more costly potentially for advanced air forces to operate in the area around China. Anti-satellite weapons which reduce potentially one of the great advantages of the United States has. Which is what’s called a C4ISR, a fancy term acronym, which basically means the ability to see the battle space and control forces within it from space based assets. If China can attack those lower orbit satellites in a way that denudes that capability, it can reduce US advantages. Cyber attacks, a lot of cyber attacks are talked about in the commercial realm. There are military, imported cyber capabilities that could potentially put at risk US response time.

Thomas J. Christensen:
My colleague James Mulvenna has written about this publicly and he has talked about the fact that while US combat systems are on secure networks that are harder for adversaries to penetrate some of the logistics capabilities of the U S military still rely on unclassified cyber spines that could be attacked in ways that could slow down the US response to a problem. Then there’s the nuclear piece. I want to focus on this for a moment. You’ll see why a little bit later in the talk. China is modernizing its nuclear force to include a larger number of road mobile nuclear tipped, solid fuel missiles that would have shorter response times. They’re supplementing that with submarine based nuclear forces for the first time according to public reports. They will be able to, or they are able to put out to sea nuclear weapons on submarines as a kind of second leg of a dyad, a nuclear dyad.

Thomas J. Christensen:
All of this is a setup for why this force, which is not a pure competitor of the United States poses huge strategic challenges for the United States and its allies. My basic bottom line on this is that in the post cold war era, the United States has become accustomed to dealing with regional conflicts against potential or real adversaries in the following fashion. Putting at risk those target’s ability to put at risk for deployed US forces early on in a conflict. Either as a deterrent or as an actual war fighting strategy to basically take out the capabilities of the other side to hurt US forward deployed forces and raise costs for the United States. That takes the form of taking out air defenses, taking out command and control of adversaries very early on in rather robust attacks. When people say, “Oh, we just need a no fly zone over country X.” If country X is a sophisticated country, that’s a relatively violent operation. Because what you’re doing is you’re taking out all the radar systems and all the air defenses of that country.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Because what you’re doing is you’re taking out all the radar systems and all the air defenses of that country. So there’s going to be a very violent initial set of actions by the United States to set up that no fly zone. So that’s how the United States has gotten used to operating. The problem is that many of the assets that I describe are based on the mainland of China, or are stealthy in the form of submarines, so the temptation would be for a U.S. President or commander to take the fight deep into China early on, to protect the four deployed forces operating out here from potential attack from assets on the mainland. That would make sense from a forced protection point of view, which is the job of a commander and a President is going to be concerned about that as well.

Thomas J. Christensen:
The problem is we’ve never done that type of operation. The United States never has, to a nuclear power. Never taken the fight deep into the homeland of a nuclear power, especially early in a conflict. The idea of doing that, it could be escalatory, and what makes matters worse is that the Chinese conventional course of capability, described in some detail and I did it for a reason, is overlapping in dangerous ways with China’s modernized nuclear force. So that a lot of the conventional course of capacity of China has been built on road mobile, solid fueled, conventionally tipped ballistic missiles, and the new nuclear force is on road mobile, solid fuel, nuclear tipped missiles. Under the same command leadership, the strategic rocket force now, formerly the second artillery. And China has based its naval coercive capability largely on submarines, and now it has introduced nuclear submarines into the mix. Why is this important? If the U.S. carries out its standard relatively offensive way of protecting four deployed forces, it may try to get at early on in the conflict, at the command and control systems in the rocket forces or in the submarine forces.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That might be tempting to do. I’m not saying anything about the U.S. is or isn’t planning to do. I’m just saying it’s logical that the commander might want to take out those forces. The problem with that is, given this overlap a future U.S. President might have to consider whether the Chinese leadership would see such an action as a way of denuding the Chinese nuclear deterrent with potential escalatory implications, because they wouldn’t be able to communicate with the other submarines or a nuclear submarine might be hit in an anti-submarine operation directly, or the command and control for a nuclear force may be compromised when a conventional missile force command and control is compromised. So that makes the problem even more complicated.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Some people take heart in the idea that China has a no first use doctrine for nuclear weapons, so no amount of American conventional strike on the Chinese mainland would ever lead to nuclear escalation because China has a no first use doctrine for nuclear weapons. I’ve done research on Chinese doctrinal writings on nuclear weapons that I found, not from my government work but from scholarly research, that on materials that are not supposed to be read by people outside the Chinese military that have gotten out of China. And it seems like no first use is a serious principle in Chinese doctrinal writings. It’s just something they take very seriously. You wouldn’t dismiss it as a term. If they were to abolish no first use, it would get our attention.

Thomas J. Christensen:
But even in that world, it seems more like a guideline than a rule. There are in the doctrinal writings exceptional circumstances under which Chinese rocketeers at least, they’re not the ones who are going to make the decision, are considering instances in which what they say the threshold of deterrence would be lowered. And that doesn’t give one much confidence that a very robust conventional conflict between the United States and China would necessarily stay at the conventional level. So that’s a concern as well.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Okay. So what does this all mean from a strategic point of view? It means that a China that’s not a peer competitor to the United States has coercive power that American leadership will have to consider, and it makes a strategic environment for the United States, its allies, and strategic partners more difficult than it might appear if you just do a net assessment of the relative military power of the two actors.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And China is a rising nation that’s rubbing up against its neighbors in new ways. And lest I seem like I’m criticizing China directly, and on a cultural level I am not, because when countries rise, they rub up against their neighbors in new ways and the big question will be, are they well equipped or is the situation well structured to encourage that rising power to act in moderate ways as opposed to immoderate ways in handling those new frictions.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So I’m not picking on China, because in 2000 I published an article with my colleague at Columbia University, Richard Betts, in which we said if China handles its rise in its region as badly as the United States handled its rise in its own region in the late 19th century, we’re in really big trouble. Because the United States ended up in totally avoidable war with Spain in the late 19th century, which was followed by a large counterinsurgency war in the Philippines, largely because of domestic politics and jingoism in the United States driving the United States in a bad direction. China has all of that in spades today for reasons related to domestic politics, and one could imagine those types of dynamics playing out in a way that makes China’s ability to respond moderately to the new frictions with its neighbors reduced in probability.

Thomas J. Christensen:
China has unfortunately many points of friction. So if we look around China’s periphery, China has maritime disputes with many of its neighbors. It has what it calls the nine-dash line, which looks something like this on the map. And that claim, which is abstract and vague, it’s not really clear exactly what is included in it. Is it all the waters, is it all the rocks and reefs or all the islands? It’s expansive under any definition, and it overlaps with the claims of other actors.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So if we go around the table, the Philippines now has a rectangular claim around the Philippines that’s consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. That’s a relatively new phenomenon. Then you have Malaysia, which has claims that overlap with the Chinese. They come up like this. Vietnam’s claims go way out into the Filipino claims and way into the Chinese claims out at sea. Brunei has a tight little rectangle that sticks out to sea that overlaps with the Chinese claims.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So you have multiple claimants and these claims overlap. And then if you go up to Taiwan, there’s a sovereignty dispute there, of a different sort. It has to do with the sovereign identity of Taiwan as an island and its relations with the mainland, and it takes different forms with different parties in Taiwan. But all Taiwan political parties have a dispute with the sovereign nature of Taiwan, vis-a-vis the mainland that doesn’t agree with the Beijing’s interpretation of that sovereign status with Taiwan. So you have that, and then you have the East China Sea where you have the dispute between Japan and China over what the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands and what the Japanese call the Senkaku Islands.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So you have all these disputes, and these disputes are really important in the following sense. We’re not in a cold war with China. The United States is not in a cold war with China. The Cold War was terrible. So I want to just preface my comments on that. The Cold War was terrible. It was dangerous. I’m glad the United States fought it. I’m glad the United States won. But it was an extremely unpleasant, nasty, and dangerous experience and people like Gaston Sigur are heroes for helping our country survive that experience intact and prevail it.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So I’m not trying to say anything about the nostalgic days of the Cold War, but I am going to say something that might startle you after saying that, and that is that in many ways the course of diplomatic challenges of the United States and its allies in East Asia with a rising China, are more complicated and harder to manage than the Cold War was in many ways, in the following sense.

Thomas J. Christensen:
After the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, for the rest of the Cold War, for the most part the lines between the two camps, the communist camp and the anticommunist camp, were relatively clear. The geographic lines. People on both sides of those lines knew what aggression would look like, particularly in places like Central Europe. The Warsaw Pact going into West Germany, that was looking at aggression, plain and simple. NATO going into Eastern Europe with conventional forces, that was, there were exceptions like West Berlin and they were important exceptions. It’s not a coincidence that that’s where a lot of the crises where early on.

Thomas J. Christensen:
But in general there were fairly clear lines. Why is that important? We know from human psychology studies, the Nobel prize winning work of Tversky and Kahneman, that the vast majority of human beings, whatever culture they come from, whatever gender they are, whatever generation they were in, tend to pay higher costs and take bigger risks to defend what they believe is legitimate status quo or what is legitimately theirs than they do to get new stuff.

Thomas J. Christensen:
There’s a temptation to get new stuff, but the degree of risk taking and the degree of costs that countries are willing to pay is much, much higher in the same way that it is for individual to defend what you believe is rightfully yours, as opposed to getting new stuff. There’s still that danger of opportunism and trying to get new things. In the cold war this was a stabilizing fact, because we knew where the lines were. We knew what aggression would look like and both sides knew that the other side would be more likely to stand firm protecting what they already had, and that was a stabilizing factor. What we lack in East Asia because of these disputes that I described is exactly that. There is no accepted legitimate status quo in East Asia. I’ve talked to diplomats in the South China sea disputes from every country except Brunei, I’ve never talked to a diplomat from Bernai about this. And I get the very strong impression that all of those diplomats sincerely believe that their claims are legitimate.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That counts the Chinese. So some people say China’s revisionist in the South China sea, is China sees all this new stuff. And I think to myself, I wish that were the case. My fear is that they actually see themselves as securing something they’ve claimed since the 1930s back to the KMT regimes of Chiang Kai Shek in the 47 Republican China consultation. And then it’s actually theirs, and then others have moved in on their territory. And I have talked to the Vietnamese about it, and they say, this nine dash line is outrageous. It runs right down our coast. It was drawn at a time when we were a French colony and had no voice in international politics. So it’s totally unjust. And the Malaysians had their own post-colonial national story, for why they should have a special rights off their own coast, the Filipinos the same way.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And they all have domestic politics that are tied up in these issues that make them even harder for them to back down on. And in that sense, the diplomatic challenge is much greater than it was during the Cold War. And I would say the same thing for the Diaoyu Senkaku dispute. Japanese people really believe the Senkaku islands are theirs. And many, many Chinese people I’ve talked to really believed the Diaoyu islands are Chinese.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That’s not a happy situation. It’d be much better if some of them were lying because it’d be easier to deter them, but they all really believe it. So that worries me. Adding to the problem is domestic political challenges in various countries, but especially since I study China I’ll focus in China, and it’s my strong impression that since the financial crisis of late 2008, that China is in the worst place domestically for the challenges that I just described. And I put it in the following nutshell. I say China is more confident abroad since the financial crisis and more afraid at home at the same time. So the Chinese communist party feels like it has more leverage on the international stage because the United States had lost a lot of prestige and power in the financial crisis.

Thomas J. Christensen:
China weather that storm relatively well economically it was the sole engine of growth within the world for a few years, at least in the early part of the crisis, gained a lot of power and prestige. So the sense is that China doesn’t need to take the slights of its neighbors or the United States like it used to, because we’re stronger now in a hurry.

Thomas J. Christensen:
That has obviously negative implications for a country that has these historic claims that it’s trying to fulfill. And then of course Taiwan as well, which I’d be happy to talk more about. And then at the same time, the financial crisis made the Chinese communist party more concerned about maintaining stability at home, because it called into question some of the sustainability of the economic growth models that were in place and the need to restructure economy faster than they had already known. They needed to restructure the economy on a faster basis to restructure that economy, so as to continue to produce growth and growth being one of the two major pillars of the Chinese communist party regime in this post ’78 period.

Thomas J. Christensen:
One of them being economic performance, the other being nationalism and protection of China’s national honor on the international stage in a postcolonial nationalist narrative that said China’s been bullied since the opium war and China needs to have a greater place on the international stage than it’s had in the past. So that puts a premium on being relatively tough in these maritime disputes, either because China has an opportunity now because it’s stronger to secure territories that it couldn’t secure in the past, or because China has an incentive to react extremely neurologically or emotionally or tough to the provocations of others. And China is not the only actor in this drama. The other disputants take actions to which China reacts. So both things are true. It’s not either or. And that makes the situation even more complicated and more concerning.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I would say on the domestic political front and I think as I said before that I’ve mentioned why the PLA, we need to recognize that the PLA is a party army, not a national army. National security in China is not national security. In Chinese the terms are very ambiguous and the term guójiā which is often seen as nation is really state. It’s state security, it’s party security. And my impression, I’ve been going to China since 1987 almost every year. The only year I wasn’t there was ’89 because I had June 16th plane tickets. But I was there in ’90 to ’91 at Peking university.

Thomas J. Christensen:
The only period in the times that I’ve been going to China where the Chinese government seems more concerned about maintaining domestic stability than now, was the period just after tenement. We exclude that period. China’s government seems more concerned about maintaining domestic stability than any other period. And that’s not a force for stability in this situation. So I would say if you looked at that two by two table China is in the place where it’s more confident abroad and more nervous at home, the place where the United States and its allies and partners would like to see China, is China to more humble abroad and more confident at home for the purpose of this Concourse and Diplomatic Exchange.

Thomas J. Christensen:
This is not a new cold war. The cold war, as I said, was nasty, China’s not an adversary of the United States. It’s a potential adversary, not a real one. If it becomes that, there’ll be a lot of failure in our diplomacy, but it’s a very complicated challenge all the same. Fortunately there were some positive features. I don’t want to make it too grim and too depressing, and one of them is that that regional interdependence. People talk about trade deficits between the United States and China in hamfisted ways, particularly in a political season. They talk about trade in general in a hamfisted way, particularly in a political season, but trade and financial investment in Asia is a major force for peace because products aren’t made in individual country’s anymore. And that’s what’s really different between world war one and the present in terms of interdependence.

Thomas J. Christensen:
You have transnational investment, you have transnational production where parts of products are made all through this region brought to China, assembled, sent back out to the region, sent to Europe, sent to the United States, and things that aren’t so much made in China as they are assembled in China in many cases.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And that’s a major force for peace because if China were to go on a regional rampage in the way that not only Hitler’s Germany did, but that Wilhelm Germany went on before world war one, then China would be really not just shooting itself in the foot economically, it would be shooting itself in the head economically because it would disrupt this incredibly delicate transnational production chain that requires on time delivery of products from multiple places. So it is fragile by its very nature. So that’s a force for peace. There is more institutional infrastructure in Asia than there was in the early post cold war period, when my colleague Aaron Freedberg write his excellent article, right for rivalry. I think the way you put it, if I can quote it directly is, “the rich alphabet soup of institutions in Western Europe, in Asia are a thin gruel indeed”. I think that’s a direct quote. But actually there’s a much more rich alphabet soup now in East Asia that could serve a purpose of confidence building.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I think that a very strong U.S presence in East Asia, a very strong alliance system is a very strong force for stability and peace in the region, but it needs to be accompanied by assurances that the purpose of that presence and those relationships is not to contain China the way we contain the Soviet union. Basically prevent China from gaining any kind of diplomatic power and prestige or economic wherewithal. That would be counterproductive in spades in East Asia and could lead to massive instability if those assurances weren’t accompanying the credibility of American presence. And at the end of the day some kind of credible threat of response if China were to become extremely coercive and aggressive. And I think we’ve been successful in the past on a couple of occasions along these lines, it can be done. There are certain things I don’t like about recent policy. I don’t like a lot of the rhetoric that has been used to describe our policy, which I think is counterproductive.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I mean the Nike sneaker camp that we should just do it. We should have a strong presence. We should have strong alliance relationships and we shouldn’t put fancy labels on it. I don’t like the term the pivot, because the pivots suggests that we’re pulling forces out of other regions and aiming them at China. We should just say we need a strong presence in Asia to stabilize the region. But I do like the details that happened underneath the pivot, bolstering those diplomatic relations. A lot of the military details of the pivot were actually in training before the Obama administration came into office. So it’s an inaccurate description, but whatever you call it, it’s a good idea that we’re bolstering our military presence in East Asia. And I think it’s a good idea that we seize the opportunity of some of China’s more assertive behavior towards its neighbors to strengthen the American military relationships with countries like the Philippines, with Malaysia, and even most recently with Vietnam.

Thomas J. Christensen:
With Malaysia and even most recently with Vietnam. And there are successes in this story where a strong position has been accompanied by assurances in ways that created stability. And one of them was the administration I served, the Bush administration in 2007, 2008 where the United States signaled that use of force against Taiwan was unacceptable. Sold lots of weapons to Taiwan, but at the same time when the Taiwan leadership was pursuing provocative initiatives that seem like efforts to unilaterally change the status quo and cross street relations, the administration criticized first privately and then publicly those initiatives in a way that helped maintain stability. And I think the Obama administration has done a fairly good job of managing a very volatile situation in the East China city with the government reiterating it’s not the first time and it’s not part of the pivot. Reiterating the longstanding US position that unlike the other maritime disputes in which the United States takes no position on sovereignty at the Senkaku is are special in the following sense.

Thomas J. Christensen:
In the case of the Senkaku is the United States takes no position on sovereignty. But it does recognize Japanese administrative control over the islands and therefore the alliance applies to them. This was stated by the secretary of state and then it was very pointedly, and I think appropriately, stated by the president in Tokyo in 2014. And at the same time, according to all public reports, the administration has discouraged Japan from taking provocative actions in and around the islands that would poke Chinese nationals in the eye and lead to a reaction. And I think that’s the right mix. And the situation isn’t totally stable now, but it’s much more stable than it was in the 2012, 2014 period as a result.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So this can be done. It’s not science fiction, it’s hard work. It takes good diplomats like your fine husband ma’am, who can handle this type of portfolio. But it is possible to do this and I am confident that it can be done in the future. I can talk about the South China sea and the Q and A or now, and I’ll leave it up to Bruce whether I should just take questions or that the South China sea as a kind of detailed problem. I have a lot of views on it. I know it’s the pressing problem of the day, but I’m sure people will ask about it. If you prefer, I would just let-

Speaker 2:
Go ahead and open up the chair.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Okay, well it’s not trying to see the very complicated situation. The US has no position on the sovereignty of any of the reefs, islands or rocks in that area. It does have an alliance with one of the disputes, the Philippines, but it doesn’t recognize the Philippines claims. It does recognize however, a commitment as an ally to the Philippines of public ships, which includes coast guard and Navy ships for the Philippines at sea.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And it’s quite possible that Filipino ships could come under pressure or attack in the future in these disputes. So that’s a direct problem for the United States as part of the alliance system. And the Philippines had one ship, it’s beached off of Palawan. It’s the Sierra Madre. It was beached there intentionally by the Filipinos from all judgments of what happened in 1999. A couple of weeks after the US accidentally blew up the embassy in Belgrade and Yugoslavia. And in that, both had one of the worst military billets and peacetime around the world. Which is there are eight Marines who are stationed permanently on a Navy ship, which the Philippines claims is a active commission ship of the Filipino Navy. It’s one of their most mighty Navy ships.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Unfortunately from American perspective, because the Filipino Navy unfortunately, from the US perspective, is quite weak. And that poses a challenge. It’s a huge area because it’s inside the nine dash line. It’s also in the Philippines and that’s a real problem. US policy in the region has been, US demands peaceful resolution of the disputes, takes no position on the sovereignty. To me, it’s freedom of navigation, which is often misunderstood in the press. There’s a lot of talk about all the trade that goes through the South China sea and why it’s so important to keep navigation. I think this is kind of a smokescreen by my own country. So I’ll be critical of my own country on this score.

Thomas J. Christensen:
China has absolutely no incentive to block trade through the South China sea. The biggest victim of such a blockage would be China if there’s blocking trade from the South China sea. So I don’t expect China to go that route. Where the freedom of navigation is really important however, is for the US military to be able to operate in the South China sea. And if China were to use one of its more expansive interpretations of the UN convention of the law of the sea and try to prevent the US military from operating in the South China sea, that would have huge implications for US military power projection around the world. And it would have huge implications for US credibility with its regional allies.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So that’s really what that struggle with freedom of navigation operations is about. It’s about military freedom of navigation and making sure that not only the Chinese, but US allies know that regardless of artificial Island building by the Chinese and regardless of interpretation of UN convention law of the sea, the US military can and will operate in that region. The United States is also called the clear claims consistent with international law, and that’s being called into question by the Philippines at the international tribunal of the law of the sea, that this nine dash line cannot possibly be fully compliant with UN convention law of the sea, which China is a signatory of. So that’s one of the positions with the Philippines.

Thomas J. Christensen:
The other position is that China is taking illegal actions that are inconsistent with the UN convention law of the sea. In fact, in places like Scarborough Shoal where a lagoon has been sealed off by the Chinese coast guard to prevent Filipino fishermen from fishing in what is the Filipino [inaudible 00:06:20]. What is not being raised in that case is sovereignty. And the Philippines was very clever not to raise sovereignty because that court would never arbitrate sovereignty unless all the disputants were willing to be involved and China clearly wasn’t. So the Filipino case is actually very smart and it may have implications for future US policy.

Thomas J. Christensen:
There has been the sealing of that lagoon in 2012, which I’ve got a lot of a region upset. There was trying to block resupply of the Sierra Madre off of on second time to show off of a Palo. There has been oil rig activity around here that upset the Vietnamese and ended up leading to a Vietnamese reaction and riots in Vietnam that targeted ethnic Chinese and the kind of extremely nasty way and actually the victims were from Taiwan. So I guess rioters have a one China policy and they went after these poor souls. We invested from Taiwan, Vietnam. People were killed. It was serious business.

Thomas J. Christensen:
There’s been the Island building campaign in various places in the Spratlys which has been seen as very provocative by the neighbors. And harassment of fishermen from various countries including Indonesia, which is not in dispute, they’ve been harassed by Maritain law enforcement ships. And basically what this has done is provided a tense atmosphere in the South China sea that I think is largely unnecessary. And it has led various countries to cooperate more robustly with the United States. Which I think the Obama administration has appropriately taken the advantage of to improve relations with the Philippines in terms of [inaudible 00:52:10] access, improve relationships with Malaysia in terms of airstrip access for surveillance planes. Improved relations with Vietnam on the defense of it.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So I support a lot of the things the Obama administration has done in the South China sea, including the freedom of navigation operations. I wish those freedom of navigation operations however, were more quiet. They should have happened earlier. They should happen more frequently than they have and they shouldn’t be on the front page of the newspapers. Because the whole point of freedom of navigation operations is to say this is normal activity. You could build a sand pile, we’ll complain about it diplomatically, but it’s not going to prevent us from sailing right by the sand pile, which has no status. Right? So that’s what you do quietly. And China will notice, the US Navy is operating. They will notice. You can tell the allies if the allies don’t notice. It doesn’t have to be in the front page. Because when it’s in the front page, you’re calling out the Chinese government. And I tried to describe before why that isn’t an optimally good idea. Because that just adds tension where it’s not necessary. There’ll be enough tension over the existence of the U S Navy. So just do it.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And then we do these general operations in the South China sea, like the aircraft carrier Stennis was about here and secretary of defense flew out there and the Filipino defense minister flew out there and this and that. That’s all fine. I think it’s a little melodramatic. I think it’s great to have the carriers go through there on occasion. I think it’s a little melodramatic to have the Sec. Def. visit the carrier while it’s out there and make a big public relations. Because it unnecessarily again, calls out countries nationalists reactions.

Thomas J. Christensen:
But the bigger problem is this, I’ll conclude with this. The bigger problem is a lot of the struggles in the South China sea are not struggles where aircraft carriers are the most appropriate tools of diplomacy. Those aircraft carriers are designed to fight major States with major capabilities. Right? And what we’re dealing with in the South China sea increasingly is China increasing its presence through the use of what are called white hulls Coast Guard ships, not Navy ships. Dredgers that dig up sand and produce artificial islands. And increasingly what’s called the Maritime Militia.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Fishermen are tough people to begin with. But a bunch of tough fishermen in China have signed up for military service. And they carry rifles and small arms and they go out to these disputed areas and they coerce and intimidate fishermen from other countries and they establish a Chinese presence. Are you really going to use an aircraft carrier against them? Right? So it’s not so much that I want to abolish the aircraft carrier as a tool of U S diplomacy. It’s just that it’s not always the proper tool. And what I would rather see is the United States go on a very robust initiative to increase the Maritime awareness and the law enforcement and Naval capability of China’s neighbors. Because they’re the ones who actually have the claims. They’re the ones who have the dogs in the fight. And just make it more costly for China to try to bully its way to getting all of the claims, the disputed claims.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And in that process, the US isn’t taking sides. US isn’t saying we agree with the Filipino claims or the Malaysian claims. Just saying you can’t get all of the claimed islands through aggression and bullying without a high cost. And that seems like an inappropriate strategy. And at the end of the day it’s their fight, not the US fight. And sometimes I worry that some of the disputants wanted to fight to the last American. And that’s not a desirable outcome from the United States. So the United States can help. And one of the things the US can do is to provide situational awareness.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And in the process the United States should continue to take its position on the sovereignty the way it has, stick to international law, stick to international law, stick to international law. It will be mightily helpful if the US Congress would pass ratify the UN convention law of the sea. Very difficult to do. Going back to the Reagan administration, but it would it be mightily helpful for the US strategy if it was based on a law that the US had ratified? But we do follow it so we can still follow up without having been ratified. But then we have to be consistent. And there’s a Japanese claim way out here in Okinotorishima, which is a bunch of rocks with a bunch of sand. And it’s not an Island in the Japanese claim. Easy around it. They’re our allies. We don’t want to call the Japanese out on that and my understanding is that there’s places way out of the Pacific where the US does the same thing but we should stop doing it.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Let’s be consistent because peace and stability in East Asia is so important to the United States and the world. It’s worth giving up a couple of fisheries so that we can have a strategy built on principle that we can follow. And the goal again isn’t to deprive China or any given reefer rock or Island. It’s to prevent the Island disputes from being settled through coordinating force and keeping the region stent. Let it be negotiating, encourage negotiation. And it should be able to be worked out and then everyone will benefit. China will benefit. The United States will benefit.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And I’ll just close with this, it’s not a zero sum game. It’s not a cold war and it’s not a zero sum game. It’s just really complicated. It’s potentially really dangerous and it has to be managed well. And again, I’m tremendously honored to speak here and the Harry Harding auditorium at the Gaston Sigur memorial lecture because those two people for me, they’re my heroes. So thanks.

Speaker 2:
Tom’s is going to take Q and A for a bit.

Thomas J. Christensen:
For as long as you like.

Speaker 2:
So as he calls on you-

Thomas J. Christensen:
I like my job [crosstalk 00:14:27].

Speaker 2:
Please identify yourself before you start. But I get the first one. Whether intentional or not you’re now you made a point of not referring to specific leaders in specific countries, and this is really about the national interest, but about growing trends in the region. Leaving aside the specific headaches in the United States or whether Xi Jinping remains president. How much of this is influenced by administrations or your leaders or how much sort of basic differences between how the patients are perceiving their interest in the region?

Thomas J. Christensen:
Well, I think public diplomacy is really important. And public diplomacy is often the first victim of domestic politics in every country. So in this time complex environment, the signals that countries send are important. I agree with a lot of the policies that the Obama administration has raised in East Asia, but I really think the pivot language was incredibly unfortunate and consequential. Because it signals something that was unnecessarily confrontational, fed into domestic debates in China into about what the United States was and wasn’t about and it fueled the types of people in those debates that we don’t want to see win the debates. And it made it very hard for the people that we’d like to see win debates in China win.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So again, you know that’s it consequentially. I think that was driven largely by US domestic politics by a new administration that wanted to say we’re withdrawing from two Wars, but we’re still very muscular in international security affairs, so we’re pivoting to Asia. And the dependent has problems in many different ways. One of them being that it makes the United States seem like it has strategic ADHD and that they can only do one thing at once. Which means even, you’re trying to, I see my student here who’s heard me say this before. For instance… Good to see you. It is designed to reassure the Asian allies and partners that were there in a robust way, but it has to be in the back of their mind. If you pivot it in, you could pivot out so it doesn’t even check that box. And then every other ally and friend around the world thinks, why are you getting away from us?

Thomas J. Christensen:
So it’s just not a good structure. And to the Obama administration’s credit, they stopped saying it themselves. So it’s not just me who was critical apparently, it was an internal discussion. So I think that’s important. If you look at Xi Jinping as opposed to who didn’t Hu Jintao, I do think it makes a difference, but I think the result is largely the same. But the process is different. This is just my interpretation. It’s very hard to tell. The Chinese system is not particularly transparent. But my sense on the Hu Jintao era after the financial crisis, there was a kind of group leadership and people watching each other’s backs on nationalist issues in the transition process to try to make sure that you looked sufficiently robust, the defensive about China’s expensive sovereignty claims in the region and that had a negative influence.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I think since she’s Xi Jinping took over there’s a different dynamic which is Xi Jinping wants to restructure the economy. He wants to clean up the party in dramatic ways and to do those things. He believes he needs to portray himself as a great leader who gets things done and takes no flack. Which is a very different dynamic than Hu Jintao era, but it plays out the same on these sovereignty disputes. A leader who gets things done secures China’s long held plains. A leader that takes no flack pushes back hard when there’s a challenge from the Philippines or there’s a challenge from Japan or there’s a challenge from the Unites States. So you’re still in the same cell, the two by two, even though the process is different. So I do, I do think it matters. And domestic politics is a big part of all this. One of the problems is all these countries save Japan, had post-colonial nationals narratives as domestic legitimizing. Whether it’s a democracy or not democracy in East Asia.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So that complicates these disputes. In a hundred years, historians are writing that the United States and China fought a war over a beached ship at the second Scarborough Shoal. An intentionally beached ship, which was declared a Navy ship. That would be a disaster. But it doesn’t take a tremendous amount of imagination to get there. That’s the scary thing about these disputes. It doesn’t take a tremendous amount of imagination to get there. You don’t have to be true science fiction authors to write that chapter of the history book from 2,125. And that’s something that we got to be able to deal with. Or fishing rights in some lagoon. Marco?

Marco:
If you were-

Thomas J. Christensen:
Nice to see you, Marco.

Marco:
Good to see you. If you were going to super impose economic diplomacy and trade diplomacy in the South China sea, what picture would you get? Would it be possible that either trade or economic disputes would actually exacerbate problems of jurisdiction regarding the islands [crosstalk 00:01:04:01]?

Thomas J. Christensen:
Well, certainly economic disputes could because if some of these regions, the Blue Dragon Region in the Southern part of Vietnam, Reed bank, which is close to that beached ship, actually have natural resources that are exploitable. The question is how many. And you understand economics. So this is Marco, we worked in the government together. He was posted in Beijing. I think Spelman is here. I have a lot of my colleagues here. So you have areas that have economic benefit for the people controlling it. So that’s a problem. And then you have fisheries. And fisheries are important. I mean it doesn’t sound like a world peace issue, but fisheries in Asia are very important economic assets. So controlling that lagoon and keeping the Filipino fishermen out is important to a lot of people in the Philippines and they vote and it’s a democracy.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So that’s a potential source of that. But I think that broader thing I described where Malaysia is producing lots of microchips that are going into computers in the Shun Jun area that are funded from Taiwan using Japanese parts, that’s a force for peace. It would be insane to break those chains over rocks and reefs. Right? So you can’t prove that because as a counterfactual, it’s the dogs that don’t bark. But I believe that this region would already be in conflict if it weren’t for that economic independence. You know, because these things are very emotional issues. And if cost weren’t very high to assert your claims more robustly, they probably already would have been asserted. And the Japan’s… There’s problems with Japan going back to 2010 over Senkaku islands. The Japanese investment patterns has not recovered to this day towards China. And that produces a lot of jobs in China. So there are real costs to these disputes.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yes, ma’am. Oh, she’s goi-

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yes, ma’am. Oh, she didn’t tape me. Okay. I’m being taped all the time, I think.

Nadia:
Welcome back. Nadia Tsao, the Liberty Times.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah.

Nadia:
You mentioned Taiwan, when you were serving in the government, now with the inauguration of the President again-

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah.

Nadia:
Do you see a different dynamic? Some people predict that based on Xi Jinping actions in South China Sea, East China Sea he’s a more aggressive leader. Do you believe that he will exercise, put pressure on Taiwan to make the President Tsai.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Wow, thanks. You know, there’s nothing like a Taiwan question that turns me back into my official government load. Right. I will not answer a hypothetical incident. It’s just, it’s just the nature of the question. Like it’s an instinct that I developed over two years system, but now I’m going to say nothing. Right. It’s a good question. I don’t know the answer, because I don’t know president Xi Jinping personally, and I spent 45 minutes in a room with him when I was Deputy Assistant Secretary. He was Vice President. I was impressed with his intelligence. I watched what’s happened in the South China Sea.

Thomas J. Christensen:
It doesn’t give me a lot of optimism about how moderately he’ll respond to perceived challenges from Taiwan. I’ve known President Tsai, I have met her many times over the years. I have tremendous respect for her. I think she’s smart. I expect her to adopt modern policies. Whether they will be satisfactory to the mainland, and the mainland will not push against her, remains to be seen. But, I really believe in the current era, the most likely cause of tension in Cross-Strait relations will be mainland disappointment. And that’s unfortunate. This idea that somehow Taiwan should parrot various phrases that previous Taiwan leaders have stated publicly, like the 1992 consensus. In order to set, maintain or create or whatever verb you want to use, a foundation for stable Cross-Strait relations. I don’t think that that should be necessary for stable Cross-Strait relations. And I hope that the two sides can find a way to work around these types of differences.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I don’t expect President Tsai to parrot those phrases. That’s not what her party’s about. But I don’t see conflict across the Taiwan cities anything but avoidable. It should be avoided. It would be a disaster, and cooler heads should prevail. So, that’s what I hope for. Hope isn’t a strategy. There’s things that countries can do to maximize the chance that that happens. But I think the big thing is I’ve been concerned and a little bit worried about some of the media reporting in China. In the official media, about expectations for future Taiwan leaders to repeat things like the 1992 consensus, which I think are unrealistic expectations. So, the question is how when those unrealistic expectations are not met, how does the mainland respond? I don’t have an answer. One would hope that someone who’s as smart as Xi Jinping would not do something counterproductive, but I can’t guarantee that that’s the case. I know that’s an unsatisfactory answer, but I don’t think it was only Yogi Berra but Yogi Berra said the future, it’s hard to do predictions, particularly about the future.

Speaker 3:
That’s great.

Speaker 4:
Tom, thanks very much for this presentation of the problem that we’re facing in the South China Sea. A lot of the measures that you suggested, I think you’re aware, these are already underway, doing a lot of these things are in our time awareness and capacity building region and so forth.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah, I don’t know how much, it’s hard to tell and I haven’t gotten [crosstalk 01:10:15].

Speaker 4:
Get the Chinese to stop and so the debate is full of frustrated people here and-

Thomas J. Christensen:
Get the Chinese to stop what though?

Speaker 4:
Stop the expansion we’re seeing in the South China Sea-

Thomas J. Christensen:
You mean the building of islands.

Speaker 4:
[crosstalk 01:10:29] using intimidating, coercive mechanisms.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah.

Speaker 4:
[inaudible 01:10:35] But let me-

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah. Okay.

Speaker 4:
Because I think that the [inaudible 01:10:38] is now reaching Washington is reaching to looking at the United States’ style of dealing with this issue as part of the problem. And I wanted to get your reaction to this and let me explain what I’m saying.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah, sure.

Speaker 4:
One second.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah, I’m trying to figure it out.

Speaker 4:
Obama is very cautious, incremental, transparent, predictable. He doesn’t let the issues spill over from one to the other, and he doesn’t let them get in the way of progress in important issues like climate change and things like that. And that makes it a situation with the opponent, it’s easier to read the United States, and it’s easy to see that what if they do expand some more, the so called salami slicing is not going to lead to much of a reaction.

Speaker 4:
And so there’s more attention being devoted to this and the discussions right now saying well jeepers, maybe the United States is a bit of an enabler in this situation.

Speaker 4:
The style of policy and action is such that an opponent like China in this case. It can read it easily. Okay. Expand easily and the consequences of Obama.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Okay. I’m not so sure it’s an accurate description of the reality. I’m not here to praise the Obama administration or criticize it. I think the United States has done some things that have gotten the attention of China that were relatively surprising. Various activities with aircraft for example, in various areas. Some of them big, honking aircraft like B-52’s in the East China Sea, the South China Sea. So, I don’t think it’s the case that, actors in the region, whether it be China or the other actors are always predicting exactly what the United States would do.

Thomas J. Christensen:
I do think that complaining about the island building of China undisputed and disputed waters, reefs, islands, rocks, whatever it is, and complaining that it’s provocative and taking advantage of those provocations to strengthen the U.S. military position in the region is something that’s likely to get their attention. And it goes back to what I described before, which is China’s strategy of developing asymmetric capabilities that can raise the cost of foreign deployed U.S. forces. It’s incredibly important when the United States is able to set up multiple new basins in a place like the Philippines, not just for the South China Sea, but for broad contingencies, because that increases the number of targets for Chinese missile leaders and others in the potential conflict. Incredibly important for regional awareness, which is a big part of American military advantage to be able to operate these new P-8 aircraft out of Malaysia.

Thomas J. Christensen:
None of that would’ve been possible likely given the post-colonial nationalist countries will often run against the U.S. if China weren’t seen as being assertive, aggressive. I don’t want to even say, aggressive I think of the use of force, so I’ll say assertive instead of aggressive. I haven’t seen Chinese influence. So, here in these regions, China is building these islands, I think we should complain about them. They’re not the first to build islands and not being a defense lawyer for China here. The Vietnamese built islands, the Filipinos built islands. Chinese are the last to do it, but they do it in a big way because they’re China. So they built a lot of them, and it’s undeniably destabilizing and you complain about it. But, really the most important thing from a U.S. perspective, I believe, is how these things are used.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So, the fact that they put airstrips on them is concerning. And it’s not concerning for the reasons that many people often state. It’s not concerning because those airstrips can be used against the United States. That would be extremely stupid for an adversary to use airstrips on isolated sand piles against the U.S. military. It would be a very bad place to be, as a soldier or an airman from a foreign country, if that sand pile is being used against the U.S. military. But, where it is quite dangerous, is you have these other claims from other disputants. If China started to use those artificial islands as launching pads for offenses against the holdings of other states, that would be something that would be extremely destabilizing for the region, and would run against stated U.S. policy, which is that the disputes be handled peacefully, and that would provide an opportunity for a more direct to U.S. approach toward the artificial islands than has been provided by China or the other disputants to date, it seems to me.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And that, I think, can be determined and I think that’s really the destabilizing aspect of those islands to begin with. So, if you can deter that kind of use of the islands, then you’ve done a lot. And then there’s the issue of this ITLOS case, and that’s supposed to come to a head as you know Bob, I’m really talking to the rest of the room, because I know you’re an expert on this stuff, but the ITLOS case is likely to come to pass in the next several weeks and there’s a very good chance that one of the disputed areas, Scarborough Shoal, will be decided in a way that creates a challenge for U.S. policy in the region. If the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea says that China’s activities in the Filipino exclusive economic zone are inconsistent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and that it is illegal for China to block that lagoon, and the Filipino send fishermen there with coastguards, then there’s going to be a real issue for the United States. Because the international court, the viewer strategy again, is based on international law.

Thomas J. Christensen:
International law would be challenged by the Chinese if they challenge the Filipino ships and Filipino ships, not the reef itself, are part of the U.S.-Philippine Alliance. And then there’s a real challenge, and I think that sort of dynamic can be presented to the Chinese in ways that could alter the behavior. Will it stop them from increasing the presence in the South China Sea altogether? I don’t think so. I think there are certain outcomes from U.S. Strategic policy that are really unattainable, but shouldn’t be seen as the standard of success or failure. China is getting bigger and has more capacity. It has these claims for a long time. There are going to be more Chinese boats in the South China Sea over time, there’s going to be more Chinese activity in the South China Sea too. The question is, how destabilizing will that activity be? How violent will it be, and how much will it harm the interests of the region, the world and the United States in the process?

Thomas J. Christensen:
So, I don’t say United States has failed to deter China from building artificial islands. I don’t think that’s a standard of success or failure in that the United States should be held to. I think it is destabilizing of China to build it. I think it’s been counterproductive for China’s own national security, in getting the neighbors upset about China. China’s diplomacy in Southeast Asia was fantastically successful, I outlined this in my book, from 1997 to 2008, reassuring its neighbors that China’s rise was going to be something that was good for everybody in the region, and China has largely scrapped that since 2009, so it’s not good for China either. This is not a zero sum game. We’ve all lost, in a sense, from these provocative activities, and China has lost the most I would say.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So, knowing the book from which some of these comments were derived, I try not to make scorecards that the Obama administration did well, that the Bush administration did well. My confession is I’m a lifelong independent, of sometimes say, I’m like Groucho Marx. I would never join a party that would have me as a member. So a Groucho Marxist maybe. But, the goal is really to prescribe, proudly served in a Republican administration, but the goal is to try to learn the lessons of what’s worked and not worked in the past, so that whoever’s elected in the future will have a better playbook. And that’s really the goal. So I don’t want to beat up the Obama administration and will point out things that I think we did wrong. Thanks. It’s a long answer to a very big question. Yes, sir.

Speaker 5:
[inaudible 01:19:46] with the [inaudible 01:19:47] problems. …………But, somewhere in the middle, you talked about Philippine strategy, even attacking China. I lived in this country from 1917, before Nixon’s visit to China there were a lot of right-wing nuts who used to ask me since I was from India, if the United States might nuke China, confused me, I said that would be barbaric if it did. So given, I mean, with American involvement in the Palestinian issue, Afghanistan, and Iraq, we’ve got so much terrorism that says America is strong, Europe is high-strength. If you ever gotten into conflict, a military conflict with China, the amount of terrorism would multiply 100-1,000 from what it is now, so shouldn’t the United States think of those kinds of things. [inaudible 01:20:45]

Thomas J. Christensen:
Could the United States think? [crosstalk 01:20:45] Okay. [crosstalk 01:20:47] I would say it was very dangerous if the United States didn’t think of these kind of things. If they came [crosstalk 01:20:52] to the conclusion that a nuclear exchange between China and the United States is a very bad thing that would be a good conclusion to draw. But, you would have to think about it first, before you came to that conclusion.

Speaker 5:
You’re right.

Thomas J. Christensen:
So I think the United States is obliged, with its Alliance system in Asia, and with its interest in East Asia, to think about what may or may not cause a conflict with China and how it would be prosecuted.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And what would concern me is if their thought process was relatively shallow, where some of those normal reactions of the U.S. military were to be employed. And I was, what I’m trying to suggest is that the United States needs to have more things like active defense of foreign deployed forces, rather than relying on robust attacks into the mainland, so that a President would have more realistic and more serious options if push were to come to shove. And I don’t think push needs to come to shove, so I don’t want to come across. But you can’t, this idea that you get peace by avoiding talking about war I think is just, it’s just fantastic and unrealistic. [crosstalk 01:21:57] You have to think through.

Speaker 5:
[crosstalk 01:21:58] You have to think seriously about what the other side is also doing.

Thomas J. Christensen:
Absolutely they are. And, so we have to as well. So, that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily going to lead to war, but you have to think about it. And it’s interesting, my title at Princeton, and maybe I’ll close with this because you want to wrap up right, is William P. Boswell, Professor of World Politics of Peace and War. It’s a very long title. Not as long as my title in the State Department, but it’s very long. The gentleman who donated the money to Princeton, William P. Boswell was an energy, I don’t want to say tycoon. He was a very successful energy business person in Ohio. He had a house that was a Frank Lloyd Wright designed home. He was a very successful Princeton grad. But, before he was a successful Princeton grad, he was a warrior in East Asia who fought in Burma against the Japanese. He got a Bronze Star, and when he came back to Princeton, he finished and he went into business, was very successful and he donated enough money for two chairs in his name.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And he said, “Put the peace before war.” I talked to his son about it all right, but don’t leave [inaudible 01:23:07] peace at. Just put the peace before war because peace is a lot better than war. He’s seen war. So I, this is a good way to close, right? But you have to think about the war piece and you know, the United States has in its history, a period in which it says war is bad. Stay away from it. And there’s a lot of bad things on the campaign trail. This is one of them, on this year’s campaign trail, this idea of war is bad, so stay away from, don’t think about it. Right? And what that does is it leaves regions to fester and to escalate to a point where the United States ends up having to fight its way back in. And that’s the much worse world than the U.S. being present, being strong and moderate at the same time, and keeping the peace, so that those conflicts never happen.

Thomas J. Christensen:
And, I think that’s a good place to close because again, who did a better job of that in Asia for U.S. ideals in places like Korea and keeping the peace during the cold war than Gaston Sigur and I’m tremendously honored to give the annual lecture. Thanks to Bruce and David and everyone else involved in having me here. And thanks to Mike who did a tremendous job with all the logistics. I really appreciate it. And thanks to the family, honoring me with your presence. Thanks so much. [inaudible 00:18:36].

Speaker 6:
[inaudible 01:24:36]

Thomas J. Christensen:
Yeah, I don’t think we should stop [inaudible 01:24:38]. I’ve been here before.

05/22/2017: The 22nd Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture: Lessons from Korea: Korea’s Democracy After 30 Years with Ambassador Kathleen Stephens

Monday, May 22, 2017

6:00 PM – 8:30 PM

City View Room, 7th Floor

Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052

Kathleen Stephens is a former U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea. Stephens’ diplomatic career included serving as acting under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs in 2012;

Transcript

Gregg Brazinsky:
… all of you to the Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture. The Sigur… I’m just briefly going to talk about the Sigur Center and tonight’s guest. The Sigur Center for Asian Studies’ mission is to increase the quality and broaden the scope of scholarly research and publication about Asia, and to promote US Asian scholarly interaction while educating a new generation of students, scholars, analysts, and policy makers. The Sigur Center promotes research and policy analysis on all different parts of Asia, East Asia, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. And it has an active program of publishing, teaching, public events, and policy engagement.

Gregg Brazinsky:
The Center offers students the largest Asian studies program in Washington DC metropolitan region with around 70 faculty members at GW who work on Asia. The Center was founded in 1991 out of the Sino-Soviet Institute and it was named for Gaston Sigur, a Japan specialist who had a long and distinguished career at the George Washington University, the National Security Council, and the US Department of State. And it’s also a particular pleasure that today we have four members of a Gaston Sigur’s family with us in the audience.

Gregg Brazinsky:
The Sigur Memorial Lecture is an annual event which was created with the intent of bringing an eminent policy maker or policy practitioner or scholar to the university every year to give an address related to the politics, culture, and international relations of East Asia. And today’s lecture in particular is partially to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. This year as our speaker, we are particularly lucky to welcome Ambassador Kathleen Stephens. Ambassador Stevens has a distinguished career in the foreign service. This includes serving as acting under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs in 2012, as US ambassador to the Republic of Korea between 2008 and 2011, as principal deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and public affairs from 2005 to 2007, and deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs from 2003 to 2005.

Gregg Brazinsky:
She’s also won a large number of honors and awards, which I’m not going read the full list here. That she’s received the 2009 Presidential Meritorious Service Award. She’s also received recognition from the Korean government. She received the Sejong Cultural prize in 2013. And in 2011 the Pacific Century Institute’s Building Bridges Award, as well as the Outstanding Achievement Award from the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea. Please join me in welcoming Ambassador Kathleen Stephens.

Kathleen Stephens:
Thank you. Well Gregg, thank you very much and good evening everyone. I’m going to move this aside. I’m not going to risk my luck and your patience with trying to [inaudible 00:03:49]. Thanks again for that really kind introduction. I am delighted to be back here at a George Washington University at the Gaston Sigur Center for Asian Studies, and I am so honored to be delivering this 22nd Memorial Lecture on this 22nd day of May. It’s a particular delight to see four members of the Sigur family here who have continued the tradition of public service that Gaston Sigur epitomized. Thank you. Thank you for being here. I know that these lectures over the years have brought many distinguished speakers to this podium to address a wide range of topics. And the scope of the subject matter, I know from Gregg over the years, reflects, well, I think the Center’s growth and maturation, and it’s a fitting legacy to Dr. Sigur, whose own career was one of such exceptional variety and impact.

Kathleen Stephens:
I understand tonight’s lecture is the first time that we ate first and then are speaking afterwards. Gregg probably, maybe didn’t know that one of my favorite to a Korean expressions, I have many favorite Korean expressions, is [foreign language 00:05:00], even when you go to the Diamond Mountains, you should eat first. So thank you for that. I know it makes for a more content audience. And what I’m going to try to do, although I have a rather formidable list of notes here, when we start talking about lessons, I have a lot of lessons, I guess. Maybe I’m trying to really get into my second career. I no longer work for the US government, so don’t take anything I say too seriously or hold against the US government. But I do want to try to make some comments even though they’re somewhat lengthy, a little bit of a trip down history and memory lane, and then really open up to a discussion because we really have quite an extraordinary group of people here, many of whom I know, and many of whom I’ve known for years.

Kathleen Stephens:
So thank you all for coming. But I was reminded, actually this weekend and earlier today, of Gaston Sigur’s career. I was in New York, as I was saying the family, earlier today where I was attending a trustee meeting of the Asia Foundation. As many of you know, Gaston Sigur worked 16 years for the Asia Foundation in Afghanistan, Japan, and San Francisco. And I was thinking about how that experience really prepared him so well for his subsequent work in academia and in government. I think that has to do with what the Asia Foundation is, and what is too often missing in academic, if I may say, and government circles in terms of on the ground and in country experience and expertise. So I’ll stop talking about the Asia Foundation in a minute, but maybe another lecture could talk about that because I think that’s an example of the kind of engagement and soft power that’s more important now than ever.

Kathleen Stephens:
But tonight I am going to focus on Korea. When Professor Brazinsky invited me some months ago to be this year speaker, he said I could talk about anything I liked, he didn’t say for as long as I like, but as long as it was about Korea. And so I suggested to him a topic that’s been kind of rattling around in my head for a long time. It’s something I just loosely call lessons from Korea. Now I personally have learned a lot from… I’ve been deeply influenced by Korea and by the Korean people. I know I’m not alone in this room tonight in that experience. But even more importantly, I think there’s a lot we can and need to learn about what works and doesn’t work and US foreign policy formation, implementation, and how we approach difficult issues, and working with allies, when it comes to our involvement Korea over the past 70 plus years. And some of these lessons, especially maybe the more painful ones, are especially important as we continue to address the challenges that North Korea presents.

Kathleen Stephens:
But I’m not going to talk, at least in my prepared remarks tonight, about North Korea. Gregg and I agreed that tonight is a good time, and I think this is a perfect venue and the perfect audience, to recall and reflect upon the events of 1987. Was it really 30 years ago [Steve 00:07:55]? The year that was the tipping point and Korea’s democratization, a year that saw ever-growing numbers of Koreans protesting in the streets, demanding the right to elect their president with their own hands. And getting it.

Kathleen Stephens:
Now just two weeks ago, and it was it really only two weeks ago, South Koreans for the seventh time since 1987 elected a new president in a democratic and free election. That election also came after weeks of protest, months, actually, of protest. Massive, peaceful, in the streets of Seoul and other South Korean cities. And this time the demand was the removal from office of a president, a democratically elected president, but one who had lost their confidence and trust, their [foreign language 00:08:48]. And they got it. Park Geun-hye was impeached by the national assembly and then removed from office by a constitutional court, roughly 11 months before her one term presidency would have ended in the normal constitutional cycle.

Kathleen Stephens:
So there’s a lot of lessons I want to reflect on. One lesson I wasn’t really thinking about, but I was telling someone before I came here that this was what I was planning on doing, and someone said, “well, did you see the Washington Post last Friday?” There was a headline, let me say, and online, the headline was, “South Koreans to Americans, we’ll teach you how to impeach a president.” It wasn’t really the lesson I was going to talk about tonight, and maybe we’ll leave that along with North Korea for questions and answers, or our side conversations. But I do hope that a kind of historical look back to 1987 and the ensuing years will help us think about issues that have fresh salience today throughout the world. And they do include things such as should, and if so, how, can the US promote democracies in other countries?

Kathleen Stephens:
What can we learn from Korea’s own democratic journey? And what can other countries learn? It may be more than we thought. Now you’re probably thinking if I’m going to describe 30 plus years of Korea’s politics and its political development before even getting to what’s happening now, we’re going to be here all night. So I want to assure you I won’t even try to do that, but I’m going to suggest a little bit of reading, if I could be slightly academic. And one great book to read is of course Gregg’s own book, Nation Building in South Korea. I may make mention of that a little later. But I’m also drawing from some memoirs by people I knew or worked with over the years, because I was talking about this mostly for an American perspective. I guess kind of obviously. This includes a time, as I’ll talk about, when I was an active duty foreign service officer. Don Oberdorfer for his The Two Koreas.

Kathleen Stephens:
He has a good chapter there on the events of 1987 and prior. And books of two other former American ambassadors in Seoul, William Gleysteen’s, Massive Entanglement, Marginal Influence. The title kind of says it all, but written about an earlier period of course. Also very important, ’79 and ’80. And my own former bosses book, the late James Lilley China Hand, and his chapter on Korean democratization. And actually there’s also an exhibition at the Wilson Center starting this Friday on Korean democratization after 30 years. Thursday, Thursday. And so I decided rather than to have slides, we’ll just go and see the exhibition. But what I’m going to try to do tonight, with your indulgence, is to give you a fairly personal account of what I witnessed and experience from my little vantage point and learned as a young foreign server, at least younger, foreign service officer assigned to Korea from 1983 to 1989, trying to make sense of Korea’s churning political scene, trying to understand, explain, and sometimes, in small ways, influence Korean and American attitudes and approaches.

Kathleen Stephens:
Now I guess another proviso, there’s a Mark Twain saying, that as I get older I have increasingly vivid memories of things that never occurred. So if something seems a little jumbled later on, you can certainly remind me. But one thing I certainly do remember very, very well is the far, far larger and really key role that Dr. Gaston Sigur played during those years. First at the Reagan White House, and then as assistant secretary for East Asia at the state department. I admired him then, and now 30 years later I admire him even more. But so I was pretty new to the foreign service. I served a couple of years in China. Just as we, US and China, normalized relations in the early ’80s. And then I was thrilled to be assigned to Seoul’s political section in 1983. I’d been a Peace Corps volunteer in the ’70s I knew a little bit of Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
I was ready to go. And I wanted to be a political officer. Others in the embassy were not so enthused with the prospect of a woman in the political section. I was told repeatedly, and always I was told, with the best intentions, mostly by Americans, that I was the first woman to even want that job. Because Korean politics was such a man’s world that required drinking and carousing and all kinds of things, I couldn’t possibly be expected to comprehend or participate in. Nevertheless, I persevered. And after nine months of Korean language training to make me conversant in the language of politics, labor unions, and human rights, or at least to have some sense of what was being said to me, all these things were important to my new job covering Korea’s domestic political scene, I started that job. Trying to get to know, trying to understand and report on Korea’s internal politics, especially at student labor and opposition scene.

Kathleen Stephens:
So Korea in those days, in the ’80s, I know a lot of you weren’t even born then, so stick with me. It was a long way from the rural Park Chung-hee era Korea I’d experienced in the 1970s. So one lesson is, even if it’s a few years don’t rely too much on your previous experience. It helps, but you got to be open to what’s changed. And I certainly reminded myself of that year after year as I came back to see not only a much changed Korea, but this country as well. But in any event, when I was in Korea in the ’70s, talk of politics was essentially forbidden. There was a midnight to 4:00 AM curfew throughout the country. And my treasured copy of Time magazine in the ’70s arrived each week by Korean mail, blacked out and torn up beyond use by Korean censors. And I was back a few years later, 1984. Obviously a lot had changed. And when I started my job in the political section, Chun Doo-hwan had ruled the country since 1980.

Kathleen Stephens:
The economy was booming. Double digit growth in many years. Seoul had won the right to host the summer Olympics in 1988. Chun had promised he was going to step down in 1987 after a single seven year term, and that this was going to be his contribution to Korea’s political development, that he would not stay in office until literally the end as Park Chung-hee had done. And he would preside over Korea’s first peaceful transfer of power. But all those promises, all that economic growth, didn’t erase the deep antipathy and suspicion, in many quarters hatred, to a Korean leader who had seized power through a military coup, brutally suppressed citizen calls for democracy, most bloodily of course in Gwangju and May, 1980. And in fact, as the economy grew, as people prospered, as South Koreans watched people power gain ground in places like the Philippines, in those years, Korean university students, historically the conscience of the nation, increasingly found support for their democratization calls from a growing, urban, middle-class.

Kathleen Stephens:
A slowly liberalizing political environment, some of this liberalization done under some American pressure. If I seem to overemphasize the American role, I’m not ignoring what else happened, but that’s just where I’m putting a bit of emphasis. But this liberalized and political climate included the return of opposition dissident Kim Dae Jung from his exile in the United States. And together with previously jailed or banned oppositionists, they shocked the Chun regime with an unexpectedly strong showing in the parliamentary elections in 1985. The heavy handed, to say the least, police response to growing student and labor protests, massive lashings of pepper gas, the use of torture against suspected student radicals, all this further alienated the Korean public and strained US South Korean relations.

Kathleen Stephens:
President Chun continued to emphasize he was determined to step down in 1987, after finishing his seven year term. But as that term drew near, and as I think about this year, 30 years ago now, many Koreans doubted whether he really intended to relinquish power, or if he intended to, while should I say more of a Putin, and to retain some kind of behind the scenes power.

Kathleen Stephens:
There was an indirect electoral college method in place that was clearly designed to ensure that Chun’s long time friend and fellow former army general, Roh Tae-woo, would be his successor. And as these demonstrations gained force, gained steam, over a period of years and months, they focused increasingly, and with increasing support on one major easy to understand demand. It’s kind of like a branding I suppose. I mean there were many, many things that, especially the students, wanted to see addressed, but the slogan became, we want to elect our president by our own hand. We’re ready for that. And they gained a lot of support with that in mind. Some Koreans, most especially Korean students, blamed the United States for not doing more to support democracy, or to oppose Chun in 1979 and 1980. And I spent countless hours, really kind of futile hours I suppose, hearing these grievances and trying to respond to them as best I could.

Kathleen Stephens:
They were an apology for what they regarded as the American failure to stop the bloodbath in Gwangju in 1980, after supporting Chun. There were a series of attacks and occupations of American diplomatic facilities, including the firebombing of the US Cultural Center in 1982, and subsequent attempted attacks or occupations of US facilities elsewhere, including the occupation of the US Cultural Center in Seoul in 1985. So it was certainly clear to US officials, and not just political officers running around on the ground, but right up the chain, that a large proportion of Koreans wanted to see a more democratic system.

Kathleen Stephens:
But there was also concern, in the administration, about undermining Chun and his plan to step down with unpredictable consequences in a country is still under threat from North Korea. And it was also conventional wisdom, I’d just say not in every quarter, but in some, and I don’t think… I know this is not something that Dr. Sigur subscribed to, but I would hear senior policy people sometimes say, and scholars, I must say American scholars, that cultures that are heavily influenced by Confucianism were not naturally inclined towards the values of democracy, that this was going to be a slow process and it could not be rushed.

Kathleen Stephens:
During this period there were two horrific North Korean attacks, one on the Korean presidential motorcade in Rangoon in 1983, that almost killed the president, killed many others. And the other blowing up by North Korean agents of the Korean Air civilian flight coming back from the Middle East. But I was hearing from students and oppositions every day, why doesn’t the US do more? And they complained bitterly about US interference and support for dictators. I actually learned years later, when I went back as ambassador, from a South Korean diplomat, by that time in very senior positions, the foreign minister and others, that the Chun Blue House, back then in the ’80s, was always asking the foreign ministry, who is Kathy Stephens? And why was she on so many college campuses and so many demonstrations, seeing so many dissidents? Why wasn’t she acting like a proper diplomat?

Kathleen Stephens:
And I was reminded that the foreign ministry too, they were watching all this, and hoping, and in their own difficult position of trying to… So it was a story, not just the people on the streets but throughout the society looking for change. But that was my job and I loved it. But I want to stress two things that were done publicly. We talked about public diplomacy. There were a lot of private things, two things that were done publicly by very senior American officials that I think had a real impact, and I saw it for myself while I was there. And one was our Secretary of State, George Schultz, who made several visits to Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
I remember one in particular just right around this time, 1986 I believe, when he was there primarily to show support for the summer Olympics. These were going to be supported and held in safety. And I enjoyed accompanying him to a photo op at Seoul’s spectacular new Olympic Stadium. But we at the embassy had been reporting on the use of torture, and it’d become public that in fact a student had died from torture in police captivity, and Secretary Schultz decided it was time to speak out about this. And I’ll always remember him saying, I don’t if it will have the same impact today, at a press conference simply, in that kind of deep gravelly voice he has, “you don’t torture.” You don’t… that’s all he said. But that diplomacy on torture, backed up by quiet diplomacy, but a clear public message, won us respect. And I felt this myself in my context, that we had not had before.

Kathleen Stephens:
1987 was the tipping point year. The year when President Chun started to actually tighten up again to prepare for an election later that year to elect his designated successor. And it was that year, the beginning of that year, February, 1987, with all this as kind of a backdrop anyways, that our assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, Dr. Gaston Sigur, gave a speech in New York. I don’t think the speech got a lot of attention in the United States. A lot of stuff going on back then too. But in the speech, he announced US support for the creation of quote, “a new political framework,” unquote, through constitutional and legal reform. And he called for the civilianizing of South Korea’s politics. Now that word, he gave the speech in English obviously, to civilianize, that captured the attention and the imagination of-

Kathleen Stephens:
The attention and the imagination of everybody in Korea. Wow. That was a mess. I remember we talked about how we translate, how we talked about that. A clear message that the United States was looking for something quite different, and hoping for something quite different, as Korea went through its political transition and a civilianized process.

Kathleen Stephens:
It was also during this time in ’87, in this increasingly tense atmosphere, that I made my one and only trip to The Blue House during that era. At that time I was accompanying my DCM, our number two at the embassy, to see a senior member of [Chun’s 00:23:41] staff. And that was when we’d seen in the newspapers and heard elsewhere through our sources, that there was this idea of having re-education camps for student activists, and we went and said, “re-education camps doesn’t sound so good. Are you sure you want to do that?” They didn’t do it, but I think there was still a kind of a tone deafness to what was going on in the country, and also how the US was reacting.

Kathleen Stephens:
Our new ambassador, Jim Lilley, arrived and broke with earlier tradition by meeting both opposition Kim’s, including Kim Dae-jung who was still anathema to South Korea’s elite in a way that’s very hard, I think, to imagine today, and had them to his residence for Independence Day and other events.

Kathleen Stephens:
But after this tumultuous spring of protests in 1987, on June 10th the ruling camp held their party convention. They nominated, to no one’s surprise, Roh Tae-woo as their candidate. And demonstrations seemed like maybe they were just going to tough it out, but then they started to grow again. The international press kind of came in more and more saying, “Is this going to be the next Philippines? More and more attention. There were rumors that martial law might be declared. Students were joined on the street by the so-called necktie brigade of men in suits and women coming out of the small stores. And you could walk down the streets in central Seoul and buy all kinds of makeshift gas masks so that you could try to endure the pepper gas, as more and more people came out. And amidst all this, we got word at the embassy of Seoul that there was a letter coming from president Reagan that needed to be delivered to m.

Kathleen Stephens:
And I remember my boss had a terrible time getting an appointment for our ambassador to go in and deliver this letter. He didn’t want to see it. But finally on June 19th he delivered the letter, it was a very gentle call for political rather than military solutions.

Kathleen Stephens:
And then six days later, Dr. Sigur came to Seoul and saw president Chun went to see Kim Dae-jung and others in the opposition. And that night at a dinner that was hosted by the foreign minister. And I think this is from Dr. Sigur’s own recollections heard from again, some of our friends in the foreign ministry, there’s a fever going on and that fever is democracy and we cannot turn it back and still every day we wondered what would happen. At least at my low level sometimes people think the United States knows everything. If they did, they didn’t tell me and I don’t think we really knew exactly how this was going to play out, but we could see the direction things were going.

Kathleen Stephens:
We had our hopes that this was going to go in the right direction and I arrived at work in the morning, every evening we’d go out and kind of watched the demonstrations, come in the morning, see what was happening, what the word was from Washington on what was being reported in the western press and sit down with journalists some times and talk about what was going on. But I got a phone call from a contact of mine in the Korean government and he said, do you have a television anywhere you can turn on, so I found one and turn it on and Roh Tae-woo. The presidential nominee came before the cameras visibly nervous and announced that he was agreeing to all the opposition’s demands. I still get to chill when I think about it and I went out and I remember another colleague of mine, Steve, I don’t know if you were there that day.

Kathleen Stephens:
But [Ed Dawn 00:00:27:09] was talking to all the journalists and I kind of burst into the room. This is a conference room in the embassy and said, kind of almost like hold the presses. You may want to hear this, I said Roh Tae-woo has just agreed to direct elections and all the journalists jumped up and ran out of the room. What you may do in a while too, but it was thrilling. I’m just trying to think, it was really thrilling. It was just a moment of great electricity and it was a climax, a day we remember. But what followed, and I won’t go into such detail, was equally important, and I would say somewhat unpredictable. Some would say maybe you could predict the two Kims split, even though they said they wouldn’t, the presidential contest became a raucous three-way race, but suddenly in those weeks following, and those months following, instead of going onto demonstrations that were heavily teargassed, we were going out to political rallies with a million people gathered.

Kathleen Stephens:
The hunger for political participation was moving, and inspiring, and a little scary too. What was going to happen? And in the event, of course, Roh Tae-woo benefited from the split between the two Kims and rode democratization and the Olympic wave to victory, and indeed was president when the Olympics came and was very successfully held in Korea in 1988, that’s my kind of summary of kind of how thrilling it was to be in Korea in those years, in the 80s. I left Korea in 1989 and my life and career took a different turn. 89 later that year, the wall fell. I actually ended up going to Yugoslavia just as it was breaking apart. And I spent the next 15 years working on jobs in post cold war Europe. But I took the lessons and I took the inspiration of Korea with me.

Kathleen Stephens:
And one was simply an optimism about the possibilities of positive change and I needed that as I worked in imploding Yugoslavia and I worked later to find a way out of the seemingly endless troubles and frozen troubles of Northern Ireland. But of course another lesson I carried with me was that the United States had a role to play and that individuals at various levels in different roles can make a difference, and then policy can make a difference in actions both small and large. But also a lesson, and again here I’m going to refer to Greg’s book again, the even more than the high policy state votes for the decision to do something in one place and not to do it in another is longer term engagement.

Kathleen Stephens:
What Joe Nye called soft power in some ways, the supporting education exchanges and values that can make a real difference. And this is, I think what you talk about in your book, Nation Building in South Korea, there was underpinning whatever we did right or wrong as the United States, relevant or not, in the 70s and the 80s we were there for decades. In supporting certain values, certain institution building and I think it had an impact. You can imagine in 2005 you’re getting a story of my life here. I’m sorry I returned to Korea for the first time since 1989 this is sort of like being, Rip Van Winkle, right? I mean Roh Tae-woo was president when I left in 1989 Roh Moo-hyun was president when I came back in 2005 as an official from the state department. They had the same last name but they spelled it differently in English, so to remember that.

Kathleen Stephens:
But they had some other differences as well. And in between the two, these two men that I had known as opposition leaders often seen them under house arrest. Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung had both been president, so I have to say it was personally very moving and rewarding to go and see Kim Dae-jung to see Kim Young-sam, to see all these people I’d known and to see what had happened and hadn’t happened. How Korea’s democracy had grown like our own. I think in fits and starts, but overall in an incredibly impressive and positive way. And as part of the Bush administration in 2005, 2006, 2007 I had a role in working with the administration of president Roh Moo-hyun. Sometimes people called them the odd couple or sometimes people used to say about us career relations in those years that it was like [inaudible 00:31:22] music, it wasn’t as bad as it sounds.

Kathleen Stephens:
That was another Mark Twain quote I think, but in fact we worked with Roh Moo-hyun’s administration on the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, right? Agreed under those administrations ratified under the next one. Korean troops in Iraq. Not a very popular war in Korea either, but South Korea sent the third largest contingent of forces to Iraq in those years. And of course the six-party talks where we made progress before we stopped making progress. But that’s another story. And this work of course continued into Lee Myung-bak administration and he was president while I was there as ambassador, when we worked together in the aftermath of the Cheonan ship sinking, the Yeonpyeong shelling and maybe not so much thought about now, but in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 when Korea joined the… If you like the top table of economies as the chair of the G20 through a very difficult period.

Kathleen Stephens:
To me kind of again, but just kind of my impressions living in Korea again, being in Korea again after 15, 16 years, having left just as this great democratic tipping point had been reached and Korea was on this democratic path. I mean at first I realized I was asking people questions they found were very odd. I tried to get most of those questions out of the way before I actually became ambassador. But I remember going back in 2005 and 2006 and meeting with students and I said, well, what about the military and politics? They looked at me like I was crazy. They hadn’t thought about the notion that military was completely out of politics. Civilian authority had been completely established. Dr. Sigur would have been very pleased. It was civilianisation. The issue of legitimacy had been resolved. Remember in divided Korea, this question of legitimacy has always been something, it really ate at I think South Koreans self confidence and sense of their countries, place in the world.

Kathleen Stephens:
I found Koreans far more confident and this didn’t just come from economic growth. Even more it came from a sense that Korea had joined the world of democratic nations. This strength and security, it didn’t undermine it. That was always I think a false argument. Power had transferred peacefully across the political spectrum and successive administrations, as I’ve already mentioned it dealt with crises, economic security and each case there were some setbacks. I mean, Kim Dae-jung came to power thinking in the first instance, I think he really wanted to focus on inter-korean relations. What was the first thing he had to do a president, he had to deal with the Asian financial crisis and the meltdown and worked very, very closely, not just with the United States but with other partners to do so.

Kathleen Stephens:
The US had worked with all these governments and so I always found it a bit of a myth or at least an over simplification, this kind of conventional wisdom that still exists, I have to say in parts of the US thinking, on Korea that we work better with conservative governments. Maybe there’s some scholars out there who’ve looked at this and you can tell me if you found differently, but I think we’ve both been effected by our election cycles. That could certainly have a big impact on our policy continuity and goals. But I don’t think that there’s a real pattern that you can say that somehow if it’s a conservative government in Seoul it’s going to work better for the Americans.

Kathleen Stephens:
I’m talking about all the positive things I see, I’ll get to. Women’s rights, much improved. South Korea is still very low on a lot of the OEC scoreboards of opportunities and conditions for women, but it really was only with democratization, that pioneers like Lee Tai-young Korea’s first woman lawyer who fought for years, I remember seeing her in Yeouido with her kind of stand there helping women who were trying to get divorces, or get child custody, or get support and had no rights really under the old household registration system. It wasn’t until after democratization and quite a long time after that, some of those structural changes really began to happen.

Kathleen Stephens:
Human rights, I’m going to talk about this again in a very kind of way that I experienced it. The fact that in terms of being a Rip Van Winkle, there was no more corporal punishment in Korea. I worked as a Peace Corps volunteer in Korea in the 70s when students, including middle school students were brutally beaten and this was a pattern. I don’t want to embarrass Koreans here. I think it was kind of people didn’t like to talk about it or think about it, but this kind of brutality was pretty common, especially for the young boys through high school, through their military service. And I think really influenced the kind of treatment that university students got when they got picked up for demonstrating. That’s all gone. It’s all gone. It’s unacceptable, it’s not just a matter of protection for political rights, but it’s a new respect I think for broadly speaking, human rights and human dignity.

Kathleen Stephens:
And my favorite one is I saw such a blossoming of creativity in Korea compared to what I’d known in the 70s and the 80s I’m going to have to say I’m very nostalgic about the past. I’m getting old. I have to be nostalgic. And I have wonderful memories of Korea in the 70s but it was a pretty dull place in a lot of ways in terms of people’s ability to express themselves. I’m not talking about politics now, but I am absolutely convinced that without political reform, without openness, without democracy, you might see this is a good thing. There would be no Korean wave, there wouldn’t be K-pop, there wouldn’t be all these kind of amazing cutting edge artists that you see on the Korean scene now. It’s just part and parcel of what comes with it. And I think Korea has been just an extraordinary example of that connection.

Kathleen Stephens:
What are some of the continuing challenges I see? Clearly institutional development has been uneven in Korea. Local autonomy was introduced some years ago. I think about 10 or so years. It’s still relatively new and there actually will be local elections next year. I think this is important, but it still has, I think by Korean zone analysis on all sides of the political spectrum, a long way to go, that vortex of Seoul, the sucking sound of centralization in Korea and in Seoul is still very, very strong. The national assembly is still relatively weak and of course the presidency is still quite strong. However, the one term five-year presidency, which was enshrined in the 1987 constitution as the best block to someone staying on in power, has as any democratic compromise does, as any structural compromise does, its own weaknesses.

Kathleen Stephens:
And in the case of Korea, of course it means that one becomes a lame duck very, very quickly. Some people say even the day after you’re elected, you’re a lame duck, but certainly by your third or fourth year, and we’ve seen this with each Korean president, power really seeps away. And with it and with the stepping down from office, I think there continues to be a really unfortunate tendency towards retribution. Someone said to me recently that being a South Korean president is the worst thing you can possibly do for your legacy and your reputation. I mean most South Korean presidents, and I’m not just talking about the most recent one, it doesn’t end very well. Again, you could point to individual ones, [inaudible 00:00:39:05]. And say, well they deserved it. But I think there’s a broader question there, which is how does Korea’s democratic system mature to the point where former presidents can live in dignity and safety after they step down.

Kathleen Stephens:
The press environment? Much change, but it’s changing still. And young people, and this brings me up finally to the present day, I think I’d say all the young people born well after 1987, well after Korea joined the ranks of the middle income countries, have both great expectations and also great dissatisfaction and discontent with what they see as growing inequality and hyper competitiveness always there, but even hyped up more now, ironically by it’s success in Korea today. But certainly my feeling as an American coming back all these years was that when president Obama said, I liked it every time he said this, that US-South Korean relations were stronger than ever. I always really agreed. I didn’t think that was just sort of feel good talk. And I really felt that the most fundamental reason that they were stronger than ever and more resilient than ever was precisely because of Korea’s democracy.

Kathleen Stephens:
And yet, despite all that beginning last year, of course, South Korea experienced what most Koreans now regard as its most significant political crisis and upheaval since 1987 and it had nothing to do with the US, it had nothing to do with North Korea. I think most of you kind of know what happened. If I summarize very briefly, maybe we can talk a little bit about [inaudible 00:40:50] of why it happened, what it means and some prospects for the new Moon Jae-in presidency and Korea’s democracy. Just to remind you kind of what happened. Park Geun-hye who was elected president in 2012, in 2016 last year she was entering this kind of lame duck portion of her presidency. I think it’s fair to say she had already been weakened by deep disappointment about her handling of the Sewol tragedy, and the aftermath, and the opposition, shades of 1986 here made a strong showing, a surprising strong showing in 2016 national assembly elections last year.

Kathleen Stephens:
And then of course these reports began to emerge that the daughter of her friend had received preferential admission and treatment at an elite Korean university. Ewha a woman’s university. Student protest began. This touches a real nerve in Korea, right? This notion of missed inequality that the one chance that ordinary Koreans feel they have to move up in life is through education and elite education. That it is a vortex and still a very narrow one. And the notion that someone had been able through connections, sure it never happens here, to get into a university really outraged people, and these protests began. And then of course this snowballed when the story that was investigated by now a much more competitive and diverse press, but competitive is very part of it too. And social media, I think there’s all kinds of social media research should be done, but we can learn from on this about this friends, associates influence on her administration, present [inaudible 00:42:33] administration and then of course about influence peddling with Korea’s large corporations, the chaebol. The candlelight vigils began and grew. I saw one in November last year when I was visiting in Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
In fact, I’d come back from south of the river and I was staying up towards the embassy, towards [Anguk-nong 00:42:54] and I had to walk from… For those who know [inaudible 00:42:56] from Nam Dae Mun, completely filled with people and I’m sure some of you saw it, quite impressive, quite impressive and yet much unlike [course-19 00:43:04] there’s certainly no tear gas but almost, I mean serious and yet happy. A really interesting phenomenon. And although the emphasis has been on the young people, the younger generation, fat people out with their families, sometimes their in-laws, their children, but all out with these signs and they basically said Park Geun-hye must go.

Kathleen Stephens:
And I actually, again back to my old political officer roots I guess. And I’m just as a civilian now myself. I sort of asked people and I still speak enough Korean to go up and sort of ask them, why are you out here demanding she step down now? You’re going to have an election next December. She’s one term, you know she’s stepping down, why aren’t you… I started in America, we would, well it’s really worked well for us, but we’d be finding a candidate to support and getting ready for the election next December. And you want to get her out now and you’re just pouring all this passion into it. And honestly, presidents including in the nine states, and [crosstalk 00:44:11] they have friends they talk to, the relationship between business and government in Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
This is not exactly a new story. What is it that inspires this passion in you? And they said a lot of things and they said, we’re so embarrassed by her. I don’t see why you say, [inaudible 00:44:31] so I said, well, you’re embarrassed, but she’s lost our trust. And a lot of the university students that I talked to, that said our seniors struggled for democracy in 1987 now is our moment. Our moment is to pick up the torch, almost literally and carry it on. And I do think that for all this real dissatisfaction and anger at her performance as president and what she had done, underlying this is what I mentioned earlier, this deep sense that that Korean society had changed so much that the deck was stacked against a lot of young people, prospects for education and betterment had declined.

Kathleen Stephens:
Again, perception there’s a longer discussion there to have, how much things have changed. But in any event, they were out there and they want to change. And the younger generation, a big generational divide I would say in this issue. President Park was impeached by the national assembly by professional politicians who were really following the voice of the people in this. They weren’t really ready for an election like right now, but she was impeached and then removed by the constitutional court through institutional and procedures. I think one can debate, and I hear Koreans debate to what extent this is kind of the mobs on the street. I don’t see it as that versus the use of institutions. But I think the process to me was impressive. Forced peacefulness and force adherence to the processes laid out in the con…

Kathleen Stephens:
Adherence to the processes laid out in the Korean constitution. So, of course, the election was held May 9th. Again, it’s hard for me to think that was just a couple of weeks ago with the highest turnout, voter turnout, in decades, particularly among the young. Moon Jae-in from the opposition party, the democratic party who’d run against Park in 2012, and lost a fairly narrow election, was elected. And, again, kind of a three way split, although there was 15 candidates in all.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, much again kind of shades a little bit of 1987. One with a clear victory and a larger margin than Roh Tae-woo did, but clearly one with a split among the other candidates. So, there still is a large segment of the conservative population, I think, in Korea that remained concerned about what this all means.

Kathleen Stephens:
One other point I wanted to make about the election, because I think it was, and, again, I know this room is filled with people who follow this even more closely than I do. But, I think if you… For those of you who maybe only saw western reporting, I’m not trying to beat up on western reporting, but on the election, and the other things that were going on in April in terms of tensions in North Korea and the response of the Trump administration to it, it would be kind of easy to think that the election was about security in North Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
I mean, certainly for the younger generation. And, my sense is, it really wasn’t. And, I was back there for a week or so and April. It was domestic concerns, the kind that I mentioned that outweighed by a long shot the security of North Korea issues. Or, for that matter, Alliance issues in the election. And, now, in the aftermath, Moon was sworn in about as quickly, I guess, as you can imagine, within a few hours.

Kathleen Stephens:
There are very, very high expectations of him. Especially on the economic and welfare side and I think it is going to be very challenging, of course, to address these. Some of these are very deep rooted issues of demographics, of the challenges we see elsewhere that have resulted in some surprising election results throughout the world of a sense again of Korea is not a country that’s going to walk away from trade.

Kathleen Stephens:
It’s heavily trade dependent. But, the globalization that the sort of established order as it’s kind of worked for the last 20 years has had some winners and losers. And, that and that things need to be reordered a bit. So, he has some proposals for addressing that. But, I think he will find the challenge great, as leaders elsewhere do. Moon has, since becoming president, reiterated that he would like to work for constitutional revision. Something that’s been talked about for 30 years, since 1987, but not done to lessen the power of the presidency. Perhaps to change the term of office to two terms. And, to make us some kind of constitutional revision happen at the same time as the local election do next year. So, I think there is, I mentioned all these things not to get too much into the weeds. I guess you’d say, “Wow, she’s really into them already. Nevermind.”

Kathleen Stephens:
But, I think there’s this notion that this is a moment of kind of redefining Korean democracy. But, redefining and on the framework that was kind of proudly established in 87. But, is now really found to be insignificant. So, I think it’s really interesting. I don’t envy president Moon, but he, right now, is enjoying tremendous good will and tremendous hope as well as, as I said, some very high expectations.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, of course, he’s also facing, and this’ll be my final point and I think a very, very challenging international environment. An environment talking about how things have changed. Nevermind 30 years, but over the last 10 years. And, North Korea under Kim Jong-un determined to be established as a nuclear power. Moon Jae-in has responded. There’s been two missile tests just since he became president.

Kathleen Stephens:
Although, certainly you would find many Korean conservatives worried that he might be too soft on North Korea. His immediate response to the missiles tests has been, let’s say, indistinguishable from other South Korean governments in asserting the importance of cessation of that and a move towards denuclearization. But, also, looking for a way to open up some kind of diplomatic process. I take it as a very positive thing that there is a plan to have a summit with president Trump as early as next month. Sometime towards the end of June. And, to try to really develop a relationship there.

Kathleen Stephens:
But, of course, that challenging international environment also includes an assertive and confident China and a bilateral relationship, which is probably worse at the moment. Again, maybe there’s a chance for a bit of a reset with Moon Jae-in in power. But, having gone through, maybe, it’s worse periods since normalization 25 years ago. And, maybe by the time they celebrate 25 years of normalization later this summer, they’ll have found a way to get back on a better track. At least in terms of South Korea, China.

Kathleen Stephens:
So, I guess I just want to conclude with a final thought. As you could tell, I could probably go on all night about what I saw and what I think I learned and what I think we could think about in terms of us foreign policy. But, also, just in terms of Korea’s journey as a whole. It’s a lifelong interest of mine. That sounds too mild, I guess. And, I know of many here in the room.

Kathleen Stephens:
But, I guess, the thought I just wanted to leave you with was something that former president Obama quoted after our election in which he reminded us that George Washington exhorted Americans in his farewell address, a couple hundred years ago, that all Americans, that we’re almost all the anxious, jealous guardians of our democracy. And, I thought, you know, that’s a little bit like what I think Koreans out on the streets here over the last year felt they were. Anxious, jealous guardians of their democracy.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, I think that’s a lesson in kind of an inspiration. That whether it’s in Korea or, dare I say in the United States or elsewhere, is we see democracies under some stress. All of our democracies are unfinished business. And, I think we can all draw not just lessons from the distant past and the urgent present, but, also, from each other. And, that we’re going to have to find a way to work together more closely as democracies if we’re going to find some reasonable response to the challenges of North Korea to the continuing challenge, I think, of the next generation to find a path to reconciliation and peace on the Korean peninsula.

Kathleen Stephens:
So, I do enjoy reflecting on the past, but I hope we can also, maybe, in our remaining time, think a little bit about how we go forward from here. So, again, thank you very much and thank you, especially the Sigur family for your many contributions. And, it’s great to be here with you tonight to remember Dr. Sigur.

Kathleen Stephens:
So, I’m told we have a little bit of time. If we want it. To have comments or questions or cookies or… Yes? And, if you don’t mind just telling me your name just because they’re, you know.

Speaker 2:
My name is… oh. My name is [inaudible 00:53:39] from [inaudible 00:53:40] and now I’m a [inaudible 00:53:40] at the Sigur Center. And, thank you for your great presentation and storytelling about the South Korean [inaudible 00:53:43] of 1987. And, I agree with most of your points. Personally, I like the combination of your personal career path and [inaudible 00:54:00] South Korean [inaudible 00:54:00] of 1987. So, I wonder what you think has made [inaudible 00:54:15] to keep things [inaudible 00:54:17]. At the end of your presentation, you mentioned this briefly about the challenge of South Korean democracy.

Speaker 2:
But, let me tell you one thing. The South Korean [inaudible 00:54:27] like me, let’s say since 2015, a couple of years ago from now, focused on [inaudible 00:54:35]. 2017 is [inaudible 00:00:54:40]. But, now South Korea democracy seems to have been backsliding quite a lot.

Kathleen Stephens:
Backsliding. Okay.

Speaker 2:
Yeah. So, what have been made [inaudible 00:54:53] to make South Korean democracy. For example, some people consider [inaudible 00:54:58] political system is [inaudible 00:09:04]. And, some people might say Confucian culture is a problem. Especially in making progress on women’s rights or human rights, something like that. And, also, some people consider elected politicians and bureaucrats don’t behave like the politicians in bureaucracy and democracy. They behave like noble men [inaudible 00:55:28]. So, many people argue that there are some social problems in [inaudible 00:55:34] democracy in South Korea. So, as a very close observer to South Korean democracy, I wonder, what do you think of [inaudible 00:55:38] further South Korean democracy?

Kathleen Stephens:
Yeah. Well, I mean, all those things you mentioned I think are challenges or obstacles. I tried to list a few areas where, yeah, I feel like, still, more needs to be done. How do we get there? You know, there’s the Churchill quote about democracy is the worst form of government in the world except for all the others. I mean, it certainly is a process. It’s not a kind of a perfect… a condition that can be perfected.

Kathleen Stephens:
But, yeah, I do think that in terms of institutions, the progress in the press and in the courts has been very important. I see a lot of change there over the last decade or so. And, I do, again, I’m still hesitating because I used to work for the U-S government.

Kathleen Stephens:
I wouldn’t say this, but now I guess I can say whatever I want. But, I do think that there needs to be some ways of making the… of allowing the national assembly to be more effective and more engaged. Frankly, it’s a problem we have in our country right now in my opinion, too. And, not for constitutional reasons.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, how does that happen? I think a lot of it just turns out to be people who go in. The reason I’m so encouraged now is not so much because one candidate or another was elected. But, because so many young Koreans, or, not so young, are activated. They want to be involved. So, I think that sort of activation is the most important thing to try to work across a range of these issues that you’ve laid out.

Kathleen Stephens:
So, I really can’t just pick out one and I think they’re getting there. I do think that the local autonomy issue, which I mentioned, is one that bears, I don’t know what you think about that. But, that it’s sort of, again, it was local autonomy, but kind of imposed from the top. And, needs to become a little bit more organic, I think. And, I think gradually that’ll happen.

Kathleen Stephens:
Hope that helps. Yeah. Over here.

Ella:
Hello, thank you, so much for a great speech. My name is Ella and I’m from Kazakhstan. And, there are around, I believe, around 200,000 Koreans, ethnic Koreans living in central Asia. And, for those people who both know, they came from Russia in 1936. And, they came to Russia before that. Was from the northern part of Korea. I was curious, do you know anything or while you were working in South Korea, interest from South Korean leadership, whether they had interest to help those Koreans in central Asia? Because, I might be wrong, because from my perspective, it seems that there is lack of interest in helping or just communicating with Koreans in central Asia. It also seems that not so many people in South Korea are aware there are Koreans in central Asia. Thank you.

Kathleen Stephens:
Yeah, thank you. There’s actually, there’s a, I’m almost recommending things. There’s a documentary film that was made a couple of years ago called Cordio Sodom, the unreliable people. Right? And, it actually, if you have to, it has this great footage that, I mean, very moving. It shows the this movement of ethnic Koreans from Russia and the border areas into central Asia where they were just like dumped in the plains in the winter and kind of told to survive.

Kathleen Stephens:
During my time as ambassador in Korea, I haven’t followed it really since then, the Eemian Bach government was very interested in developing stronger relations with central Asian countries. In particular, Uzbekistan. But, I think also Kazakhstan and some others. Part of this was kind of resource diplomacy. And the fact that there were Korean communities in some of these areas, albeit ones that had really no ties to Korea.

Kathleen Stephens:
These are communities where, generally speaking, as I understand, they don’t speak Korean. The link is, cultural link is pretty well lost. But, they were certainly interested in looking for ways to strengthen their relationship. So, I actually visited Uzbekistan from Korea and my colleague there, the American ambassador in Tashkent said Seoul has the best bilateral relationship with Tashkent of any government in the world. And, in fact, Korean Air was building a huge logistics hub. The same kind of logistics hub that exists… cargo hub that exists in Incheon airport there in Tashkent.

Kathleen Stephens:
So, there was a real effort country by country to think about strategic trade partners, linkages. And, in part to kind of, if you like, I think, market the Republic of Korea as sort of not being China. For those who are worried about Chinese domination. But, bringing certain capabilities and certain links.

Kathleen Stephens:
With respect to the Korean communities, my impression is that most of the Korean communities of central Asia, if they had any ties to Korea, they tended to kind of be to North Korea. But, that’s changed now over the years. And, I think E is slowly, interesting, you haven’t really seen much. But, slowly in Uzbekistan, for example, I did see some effort to establish some linkage. But, we actually, actually, I remember, see, I always tell too many stories. But, I visited a General Motors plant in Korea down near Pusan. I’ve forgotten, Shaman, I think. But, General Motors also had a plant in Uzbekistan and they used to bring the Uzbek employees back and forth. For kind of internships and so forth. So, there are things going on. But, I don’t know what recently, so much. Thanks. Yeah, rust.

Speaker 3:
[inaudible 01:02:26] interesting presentation. I was cast a special assistant during that period of time. I remember a key role that might help. My question is about the Korean military. You mentioned that when you got reengaged to Korean affairs, 2005, on. You raised the question. There was no residence at all. [inaudible 01:02:51] didn’t take the [inaudible 01:02:52] role. But, during this recent impeachment, were there any clinches in the military that you picked up? Any thought at all that maybe democracy wasn’t going to work out or was that [inaudible 01:03:01] really over?

Kathleen Stephens:
I think that’s really over. I mean, if someone heard this thing, I think that’s really over. And, actually, since we’re talking about our former mentors and colleagues, Jim Kelly was in New York. And, I was talking to him yesterday. Actually, about this point. And, he told me something that I hadn’t heard before, which he said, “When Roh Tae-woo became president in 1987, he actually,” I’m not betraying confidence here. I think it’s so long ago, nobody cares. But, except we aficionados. But, there was a conscious effort to kind of promote up and out serving officers in the Korean military who might’ve had some political inclination. So, there was kind of a conscious effort. But, no, since then, absolutely not. I never heard anything. Yes.

Mike:
Mike [inaudible 01:03:59] how would you advise the new president to thread the needle in terms of dealing with the U-S administration? I mean, he has his own ideas about what he wants to do about North Korea. And, I’m not at all sure that our administration would say, “Well, fine, you want to deal with him, okay. Take the problem off of our hands.”

Mike:
How far can he push this thing? Particularly since at some point there’s going to be an impetus for direct U-S North Korea diplomacy or dialogue or whatever you want to call it. And, can you do that and cut out the South Koreans? Or do you end up going back to the six party process, which didn’t seem to be terribly successful?

Kathleen Stephens:
Thanks. One of the things that was a great worry, I think, in Korea and South Korea over the last few months, during this period of, I hate to call it a political vacuum. Because, the very capable civil service went on. They had a very capable acting president. But, nonetheless, there wasn’t political authority there in terms of elected president. And, in the meantime, our new president came into office. And, in particular, in March and April had a lot to say about policy towards North Korea. Some of it sort of contradictory.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, there was a real worry in South Korea about what sometimes called Seoul passing or Korea passing, right? That while South Korea was going through its political process that prime minister Abbaye had established a good relationship with president Trump, Xi Jinping and president Trump seem to be, at least from the American side, kind of new best buddies.

Kathleen Stephens:
You have Xi Jinping, according to president Trump, telling Trump that to Korea used to be a part of China. Which, of course, Koreans would not really agree with. So, there was a worry. And, I think when Moon Jae-in came in getting to advice, I mean one, I think he has a political imperative. But, also, just from a policy point, if you will, imperative to kind of get back in the game, get Seoul back in the game. And, be at the table when North Korea policy is discussed. And, when decisions are made.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, I think he’s done a good job of, of getting started on that by sending over his special envoy who was welcomed at the white house who had a meeting with president Trump. And, now, they’ve began to plan for this summit. So, my advice would be to build that relationship. I’m just as Mr. Abea has. Just as Mr. She has. But, to try to come to it with ideas from a Seoul perspective that are going to be attractive and workable from a U-S point of view. I don’t think that’s impossible. I mean, obviously, I guess, I just worry more about what I see so far as the kind of the incoherence of the American approach. But, I hope we’ll get a little more coherent. And, I think that we’re going to see Moon Jae-in really emphasize that there’s also an inter Korean dimension to this.

Kathleen Stephens:
And, he’s also already said some things about this that. That, for example, again, this is not my advice to him, these are some things that have been suggested, but I think they sound like they’re worth exploring. That in an effort to improve the atmosphere for talks without undermining sanctions or pressure or the insistence on denuclearization, the new government in Seoul might look good at restarting certain humanitarian assistance programs or family reunions.

Kathleen Stephens:
Now, easier said than done. And, where Pyongyang is on these things remains to be seen. They’ve already come down pretty hard on Moon Jae-in. But, I think those are the kinds of things that he’s going to want to explore and he’s going to want to do it, clearly, in close coordination with Washington.

Kathleen Stephens:
Yeah. How can we get back into a diplomatic process, whether it’s six party or some other configuration, I do think it’s very important that that Seoul is a full participant. It doesn’t have to be in every meeting. There could be an inter Korean channel, there could be a U-S, Pyongyang channel for certain things. But, there has to be. The one thing we have learned, I mean, one lesson, again, I didn’t talk so much about North Korea over the years. But, North Korea is a challenging enough problem. But, to even have a chance to work, a precondition is Seoul and Washington has to be working together. And, that was certainly a lesson we learned in the Kim Dae-jung and the Wuhan years through bitter experience. Even if we are working together still-

Kathleen Stephens:
Experience. Even if we are working together, it still may not result in what we want, but at least we have a chance.

Speaker 4:
Yeah, sorry Celeste.

Celeste Arrington :
Thanks, Celeste Arrington, I teach Korean politics here at George Washington. Thank you for your talk. I wanted to ask, since you brought up women’s rights in South Korea, a couple of things. One is, what do you think has worked to improve human rights? You mentioned the abolition of the household registry system as one major victory in that process, but over the years what has worked? And then, what effects do you think the demise of Park Geun-hye will have or is it having on women’s participation in politics, especially because the number of members of the National Assembly who are women continues to be quite low? Not quite as low as Japan, but still relatively low.

Kathleen Stephens:
Right. Well, I mean in terms of women’s, opportunities for women, full participation of women in the kind of longer historical perspective, I mean I certainly think that the opening up of educational opportunities for women has been very important, and that’s kind of done now. But, some of us would remember a time in Korea where if there was a choice, the daughter didn’t go to school, right? Or didn’t go abroad for education, so on and so forth. That’s pretty much over, and I think, and also the preference for sons, I mean that’s kind of remarkable to me that there doesn’t really seem to be much of a preference for sons anymore. But, in terms of what’s worked to get women into more participating in more parts of the society, well they’ve had their greatest success in areas like the civil service, right? Areas where there is a process and the process involves taking an exam and if you pass it, then you have rules that allow you to get in. It’s been much harder I think when it comes to corporations and business opportunities.

Kathleen Stephens:
And the other challenge, I mean, you know this very well, but I hear again and again from Korean women and men is, is it goes back to… [inaudible 01:11:31] I guess what I see when [inaudible 01:11:33] the thing that’s so difficult about Korean society, it’s so stressed out. Actually, I’m going to digress and say somebody was saying, “Oh, when you’re in Korea, aren’t people just really stressed out about North Korea?” I said, “No, they’re not stressed out about North Korea. They’re just stressed about being South Korea.”

Kathleen Stephens:
It’s just, it’s the most stressed out place I know, but it’s just because… And women feel this, so even if they have the education, they’re middle-class or they’re… They can have a lot of advantages if they have that even one child, they feel they have to devote everything they have to making sure that child gets into the right pre-school and learns English at the age of 18 months. It’s pretty incredible, right? And I don’t know how you get to that, and again I think it affects men too, so I just… to me the great, kind of weakness of… the great strength of Korea is also its great weakness, and that is this very high aspiration, highly competitive society. And I think it is impacting on the choices that women feel they have in particular in their lives.

Kathleen Stephens:
With respect to yeah, Park Geun-hye, yeah I mean maybe especially for a woman of my generation, I always kind of think, yeah if a woman doesn’t do well, sort of, then everyone says, “Well a woman can’t do that job anymore.” I think that’s gone away a little bit. And certainly Park Geun-hye was… she wasn’t elected as a woman or [inaudible 01:12:53], she was elected as the inheritor, I think, of the Park Chung-hee legacy and with her own profile. I have thought about this obviously.

Kathleen Stephens:
I mean, it was interesting to me that during the recent campaign, one of the top five candidates was a woman. Sim Sang-jung? Right? Yeah. And a minor party, or a small party, I don’t want to say it’s minor, it’s small. Every time they had a debate, her rating went up. She was certainly the best debater on the stage and in the view of people who watched. So, she didn’t get elected president but she didn’t expect to be. Korea is going to have a woman foreign minister for the first time. I hope she does well. If she does, I think that’s good. If she doesn’t then maybe…

Kathleen Stephens:
But, I think women in prominent positions will continue to kind of, grow in Korea, but I do get back to kind of just worrying about something that has really nothing to do with my diplomatic duties or my former ones and that is just kind of the nature of Korean society and how you have, and this is what Moon is expected to do, to kind of create a system that addresses some of the stress Koreans feel and holds onto these virtues of wanting the best for themselves and everybody else, while opening up a few more options and paths for people’s lives. It’s kind of related.

Kathleen Stephens:
I’m sorry for all these long answers. This is one thing I was reminded… I left Korea as ambassador in 2011 so it was quite a long time ago, but people still remember that when President Obama came to Korea I think in… he came several times. In fact, people say he visited Seoul more than any other foreign capital in the world during his presidency.

Kathleen Stephens:
Anyway, he came several times while I was there and on one occasion he asked Lee Myung-bak over a lunch, he said, “I’m really thinking about educational policy in the United States. What’s the biggest challenge you face in your educational policy in Korea?” And President Lee said immediately, he said, “[foreign language 01:15:30]. Korean parents, they’re my biggest problem.” And he said, “Why?” “Because they’re never satisfied. They never [inaudible 01:15:44] …” And when President Obama came back from that trip, he had kind of the standard speech that he was giving, because he had an education agenda in this country and he kept talking about Korean education and the high expectations and the involvement of parents and how great this was and so on and so forth.

Kathleen Stephens:
And I had more… Nevermind the 80s when people were concerned, when [inaudible 01:16:06] really wanted to tell me about America’s faults and its policy and many other areas, all Koreans, would come up to me and say, “Why is President Obama saying such nice things about our educational system? Because it’s horrible! Haven’t you told them how bad it is and how it’s just killing us all?” And I actually told him that one time, and he laughed and he said, “Well we need more of that.” Yeah.

Speaker 5:
Hi, it’s good to see you again.

Kathleen Stephens:
Yeah, thank you.

Speaker 5:
Thank you very much for wonderful the talk. I am [inaudible 00:07:39], I happen to be in Korea just before the election and at that time the mood was the kind of Korean spirit. There was police surrounded by all these big [inaudible 01:17:00] . Cornered by the Chinese and [inaudible 01:17:02] Japanese and kind of betrayed by the US, especially the very secretive southern installation of [inaudible 01:17:14] the people were very shocked. But then there was another opinion, maybe it gave [inaudible 01:17:22] a way out so that he didn’t have to feel responsible for its installation. But, when you think if you don’t have USA as a big ally as Korean’s have always relied on, if they lose it they have really nothing. So, there is a very genuine scale about that possible discontinuation of that wonderful relationship. So the impression is, well I say, maybe President Trump does anything against whatever President Obama did, but eventually there will be forces of both names [inaudible 01:18:06] I’ve been held to them.

Kathleen Stephens:
Yeah, I mean it’s even more typical for me to kind of try to predict the direction of American, of the Trump administration, but if history is any guide, the Trump administration will conclude as previous administrations have. Remember, I mean, Jimmy Carter wanted to withdraw all the troops from Korea there in the late seventies we’ll conclude that the broad bipartisan shape of our Alliance relationship with South Korea remains an enormous asset and extremely important to both countries.

Kathleen Stephens:
And I would remind everyone that, we have just in the short several months of the Trump administration, so far, the secretary of defense, the secretary of state, the director of the CIA normally not announced, but it was announced and he was there, the vice president have all been to Korea, and they have all affirmed the close nature of the Alliance and the Trump administration’s commitment to it. But, of course what we have in Washington now, well he’s not in Washington now, but we have an American president now who has his own means of communication, so we say, and it’s, especially in a situation like Korea, it’s potentially, I think, quite dangerous, and certainly unpredictable. So I think we saw that in April when people were very, [inaudible 01:19:50] what was happening, and I do worry about that. I recall, actually, I hadn’t said that the election on, on May 9th had sort of nothing to do with the US it was maybe about a week before the election.

Kathleen Stephens:
President Trump in, I think it was a press interview, I can’t remember, maybe you all do, he said two things about South Korea, and one he said, “Well, South Korea really should pay $1 billion for this missile defense program.” It was that and, “Oh that Korea, US free trade group actuals, we haven’t touched on, but is a terrible agreement, we’re going to get rid of it or renegotiate it.” And you know, by this time, frankly, a lot of people just sort of said, okay, he said it, We’ll see what happens.

Kathleen Stephens:
But, on that day in Korea, at this point, I mean literally the taxi drivers, everyone’s talking about politics and that’s sort of the word on the street was, well, Trump just gave Moon Jae-in the election, that that was the impact. Now I don’t think that that’s probably the case, I mean Moon won by a clear margin, but there was a sense that I don’t think that was in president Trump’s mind at all. I mean, I don’t know to what extent he was aware of when the election was, but there still is that obvious sensitivity in Korea to what is said and certainly what is said by an American president… Steve.

Steve :
You spoke a little bit about the novelty of you being a young political officer [inaudible 01:21:30] and I would think the novelty of being a woman ambassador without a rock star sign and all of that. Also, I wonder if you’ve re-reflected on what impact that had on the [inaudible 01:21:48] my department, you’ve talked about that, I’m sure you thought back…

Kathleen Stephens:
Hey Steve. Yeah, it’s a little hard to really step back and evaluate that. I mean I will say that when I arrived in Korea in 2008 as the new ambassador, I certainly was a different profile from previous American ambassadors. But the thing that had the biggest impact that people responded to was that I spoke Korean badly, but I spoke it, and a lot of people said to me, this shows, they’re always over-interpreting, but maybe just that the United States now really respects Korea cause they sent an ambassador who speaks our language and who knows Korea, so that was the Trump card, if you like, I think. In terms of being a woman, I think just because of the generation I am and everything I was a little sensitive. I didn’t want to sort of be the woman ambassador. I wanted to be the American ambassador who is a woman.

Kathleen Stephens:
I was going to be the best American ambassador I could be. I had these experiences in Korea which really moved me a lot, and they were things like being at a concert during intermission and having a parent, often a father with a little girl who would come up to me and say, and they would recognize me and say, cause my picture was out a lot. So people would recognize me and the father would say to me, this happened a lot, “My daughter really likes you.” Or oftentimes young men, it comes, “My mother really likes you. She’s a big fan.” And then it was a little bit, “Can we take a picture?” and, “My daughter wants to be a diplomat, she wants to go into politics.” Right?

Kathleen Stephens:
So then you think, wow, I guess that this, maybe I am having an impact. And so I sort of admit it meant a lot to me, especially when it was frankly, men, Korean men who are coming up and saying this, and “I want my daughter to be this, I want her to do this.” And the other thing, and again, I’m not trying to make too light of this, but I had Korean politicians again, mostly male, who would come up and say to me sometimes, “Well, my wife really, really likes you and so I have to be nice to you.”

Kathleen Stephens:
I mean in a sense of I got to listen to what you have to say. I don’t know, anyway it was… but no, I think overall, and I see in the world today, I think the fact that there’s a foreign minister who’s a woman is a very good find. And also, actually again it gets back to Yung Kee’s question in a different way because the new foreign minister is gone I think. Right? Kind of the press on her is, well, she doesn’t really have the experience and the traditional bilateral relationship. She’s not an America hand or Japan hand. She’s been in kind of the UN and mostly working on multilateral relations. How is she going to handle kind of the hard policy questions? But, I think it’s also a signal that Moon Jae-in sees, as his predecessors did, part of 21st century Korea as a more, punching above its weight on a global stage and as a real middle power, and that you can do that as well as have a strong Alliance relationship and management of important great power relations. But I don’t know, that’s all I can say about that.

Jer Lin :
[inaudible 01:25:39] Thank you very much. My name’s Jer Lin [inaudible 01:25:51] and I’m glad to work in [inaudible 01:25:52] am I passionate about the Korea [inaudible 01:26:00] as you all already thought, that Korea has a reaction [inaudible] that due to the previous, the president Parks, the Korean conservative party was divided in two ways. [foreign language 00:17:21] I’m just curious of your opinion about your perspective about Korean conservative party as you’ve had a long living experience in Korea. And also, is there any distinguished point in contrast to the US conservative [inaudible] party to [inaudible 01:26:48] Korea with President Park.

Kathleen Stephens:
Boy, I don’t know. I’m not a political scientist. but I do feel like our politics and all in our country and South Korea are going through some changes. I don’t know what the Republican party is going to look like in a few years, I don’t think any of us do, but I mean it’s going through some interesting times with respect to the kind of traditional conservative forces in Korea, in South Korea, if you like. I think there, they need some new leadership now. Right? And maybe there’ll be a bit of a generational change, but [inaudible]

Kathleen Stephens:
I guess the more general point I would make is, relatively speaking, and you alluded to it when you say about all the parties and how they changed their names and Korean political parties, even though we say conservative, progressive, they are a little bit more, so then that comes traditional analysis. We’ve always had a Korean politics, a little bit more personality dependent, little more factionalized, kind of coming and going depending on who the leader is. So, I think in the next election, whether you know next year or whenever it is, there’ll be probably some parties with some other different names, and maybe some new leaders.

Kathleen Stephens:
I guess the only one thing I think it’d be interesting to watch is, I mentioned again, local autonomy. Well, at least some new leadership coming up from the governors or the mayors. Now even Bob came to the presidency by being mayor of Seoul, but Seoul is Seoul. It’s sweet, generous. But will there be a party system that begins to develop and will it be less regionalized with more focus on other bread and butter or economic issues? I don’t know, but I think that’s just one area you might look at going forward now. Exhausted you all. Well, thank you all very much. [inaudible].

Gregg Brazinsky:
Thank you again, ambassador Stevens for such a fantastic lecture and for giving such a very interesting and fantastic answers to all the questions. There is some leftover food outside, especially if you’re a student or a graduate student, feel free to take as much as you can carry. It’s going to go bad if you don’t take it. So please help us clean up and take some of the food

Kathleen Stephens:
[inaudible].

Flyer for the 24th Sigur Lecture with map of India; text: 24th Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture - Water and the Making of Modern India with Dr. Sunil Amrith

4/25/19: The 24th Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture | Water and the Making of Modern India

Sigur Center logo with transparent background

Thursday, April 25, 2019
5:00 PM – 7:00 PM EDT

State Room, 7th floor
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

Flyer for the 24th Sigur Lecture with map of India

About the Event:

This event is open to the public and media. Light Refreshments will be served.

The Sigur Center for Asian Studies holds an annual memorial lecture to honor the legacy of the Center’s namesake — Gaston J. Sigur. The Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture has featured many distinguished and high-level experts from various backgrounds and professions related to Asia. You are cordially invited to attend this year’s Annual Gaston Sigur Center Memorial Lecture with Dr. Sumil Amrith to discuss “Water and the Making of Modern India.”

Agenda:

5:00 PM – 5:30 PM | Registration and Welcome Reception

5:30 PM – 5:45 PM | Opening Remarks and Introductions (Professor Benjamin Hopkins)

5:45 PM – 7:00 PM | Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture and Q&A Discussion (Professor Sunil Amrith)

 

 

Professor Sunil Amrith is Mehra Family Professor of South Asian Studies and Professor of History, and a Director of the Joint Center for History and Economics at Harvard University. His research is on the trans-regional movement of people, ideas, and institutions, and has focused most recently on the Bay of Bengal as a region connecting South and Southeast Asia. Amrith’s areas of particular interest include the history of migration, environmental history, and the history of public health. He is a 2017 MacArthur Fellow, and received the 2016 Infosys Prize in Humanities. Amrith sits on the editorial boards of Modern Asian Studies. Sunil Amrith grew up in Singapore, and received his undergraduate and graduate degrees from the University of Cambridge. Before coming to Harvard in 2015, he spent nine years teaching at Birkbeck College, University of London.

Headshot of Ben Hopkins with blue background

Professor Benjamin D. Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and Associate Professor of History and International Affairs, is a specialist in modern South Asian history, in particular that of Afghanistan, as well as British imperialism. His research focuses on the role of the colonial state in creating the modern states inhabiting the region. Professor Hopkins regularly teaches courses on South Asian history, the geopolitics of South and Central Asia, as well as World history.

Transcript

 

Ben Hopkins:
Good evening everyone. Why don’t we go ahead and get to the goods, as it were. It is my distinct pleasure to welcome you this evening to what is the 24th annual Gaston Sigur Lecture, which celebrates and is done in memoriam of the life work and achievement of Gaston Sigur, who is also the namesake of the Sigur Center, which I am the director of.

Ben Hopkins:
I’m Ben Hopkins, the Director of the Sigur Center, and it is my great pleasure this evening to welcome a distinguished guest and a very old friend, Professor Sunil Amrith from Harvard University.

Ben Hopkins:
Before we get to Sunil, it is my duty and pleasure to talk a little bit about our namesake, Gaston Sigur, give you some background on the Sigur Center, as well as Professor Sigur himself, who arrived here at George Washington University in 1972 to be the first head of what was then the Institute of Sino-Soviet Studies, and has subsequently transformed into being the Center that carries his name today.

Ben Hopkins:
Gaston Sigur was tapped by President Ronald Reagan in 1982 to be the Senior Director of Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, and in 1983 he was appointed as Special Assistant to the President on Asian Affairs. By 1986 he moved real estate down across the street to Foggy Bottom, being appointed and approved by the Senate as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He’s remembered for his strengthening of the American-Japanese alliance, as well as his push for democratization in Korea. He finished his illustrious career in public service in 1989, having carried through into the first Bush administration, and returned here to GWU, where he ended up retiring in 1992.

Ben Hopkins:
In light of his service, both to the University and the country, the elders of GW decided to name the newly established Center for East Asian Studies, which is today the Center for Asian Studies, after him: The Sigur Center.

Ben Hopkins:
Gaston Sigur passed away in 1995, and in memory of his longstanding works and contributions intellectually and to the policy world, we gather here today annually for our lecture, partly in his memory. His son Paul sends his regards; he could not attend this evening, and we do miss him, but we look forward to sharing this event through the website with him as soon as possible.

Ben Hopkins:
Now the Sigur Center today is the largest center for Asian Studies in the DC area. We focus no longer solely on East Asia, but as we can see from today’s topic, right the way across Asia, including South, Southeast Asia, and even venture as far afield as Central Asia.

Ben Hopkins:
I would also draw your attention to the back of the program, which announces, for those of you that have not heard, our success in recently winning a National Resource Center Title VI grant, which has designated us as one of 15 National Resource Centers in the country, joining Columbia, Harvard, and a few other universities you may have heard of. And as he’s here, it is also my pleasure to point out that much of the work for that was done by Ed McCord, who is going to be retiring next month.

Ben Hopkins:
So with that said, let me turn to the business of the day. As I mentioned, it is a distinct pleasure to welcome a distinguished academic. Very rarely is it that I actually get to say I stand in the presence of a genius. But as you can see from his featured speaker bio, Sunil won the MacArthur Fellowship, known as the Genius Award, in 2017, and a well-deserved win it was. I’ve known Sunil for a number of years; we were at Cambridge together. And apart from being an incredibly acute mind, he is also a very, very nice person, so it’s with that warmth that I also welcome him.

Ben Hopkins:
Sunil is currently the Mehra Family Professor of South Asian studies, and to my horror I just found out he’s the Chair of the South Asian Studies Department at Harvard; apparently even if you’re a genius, you get sentenced for your sins. And he is Director of the Joint Center for History and Economics [at Harvard].

Ben Hopkins:
Sunil has written a number of award-winning and truly groundbreaking books, the latest of which will, I think, form the basis of his talk this evening. His latest book, which he will address in his talk this evening, is Unruly Waters, which just recently came out with Basic Books and Penguin, is a history of the struggle to understand and control water in the South Asian subcontinent.

Ben Hopkins:
His previous extremely well received book, Crossing The Bay of Bengal, was published with Harvard University Press in 2013, and was recognized by the American Historical Association with the John F. Richards Prize for South Asian History in 2014. He also is the author of Migration and Diaspora in Modern Asia with Cambridge University Press in 2011. His first book, Decolonizing International Health: South and Southeast Asia, was published with Palgrave Macmillan in 2006, and in fact, that was the first time I remember hearing Sunil speak on Dr. Malaria, which was a long time ago, back in Cambridge.

Ben Hopkins:
Additionally, Sunil has authored a number of articles in the American Historical Review, Past & Present, and EPW. He’s on the editorial board at Modern Asian Studies, is a book editor for Cambridge University Press, as well as Princeton University Press.

Ben Hopkins:
Sunil arrived at Harvard in 2015, having served his time at Birkbeck, one of the University of London colleges, for nine years, and he has a longstanding connection as well, familial and professional, to Singapore, where he grew up.

Ben Hopkins:
With that, it is my great pleasure to cede the floor to a true genius, Sunil Amrith.

Sunil Amrith:
Thank you so much Ben, for a very, very kind introduction, which I will struggle to live up to. But it’s very, very nice, it’s a particular honor to be here on the invitation of Professor Hopkins, whom I’ve known for—I don’t want to count how many years, but close to 20, I think. It’s an honor to be here giving the Sigur Memorial Lecture. Thank you all for being here at a busy time at the end of the semester.

Sunil Amrith:
My subject today is “Water and the Making of Modern India,” and I’d like to begin with a well-worn cliche. In 1909, the finance minister in the British Imperial government of India declared that, “Every budget is a gamble on the rains.” That phrase has been repeated countless times since then. It still appears in Indian newspaper reports every year.

Sunil Amrith:
Half a century later, the sentiment held. “For us in India, scarcity is only a missed monsoon away,” Prime Minister Indira Gandhi said in the late 1960s. And then just last year, in a lecture that she presented at Harvard, one of India’s best known environmentalists, Sunita Narain, declared in an off-the-cuff remark, “India’s Finance Minister is the monsoon.”

Sunil Amrith:
At ground level, this is to simply state a basic truth. Even today, close to 60% of India’s agriculture is rain-fed, subject to a monsoon climate that has always been intensely seasonal, and subject to a good deal of internal variability. But the story I want to tell this evening is not one of climate as destiny. Rather, it’s a story of how the idea of climate as destiny has had significant political implications in modern India.

Sunil Amrith:
When I mentioned recently to somebody that I was working on the history of the monsoon, they asked, “Does the monsoon need a history? What sort of history?”

Sunil Amrith:
For a start, the monsoon has a natural history, and we can see this in Pranay Lal’s wonderful book, Indica: A Deep Natural History of the Indian Subcontinent. And in that, Lal sketches a story of a monsoon that has evolved over tens of millions of years, leaving an archive of its natural history on the seabed and on land. Traces embedded in tree rings tell us that the Asian summer monsoon has strengthened during warm inter-glacial periods, and weakened during periods of planetary cooling, as during the so-called Little Ice Age that lasted through the middle of the 16th to the early 18th centuries.

Sunil Amrith:
Since the late 19th century, meteorologists in India have pioneered the study of the periodicity of the monsoon’s internal variability, leading to the discovery of how the monsoon is tele-connected, as they say, with other parts of the planet’s climate, including especially through the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Sunil Amrith:
But the monsoon also has a modern history, a human history, which is what I will be concerned with this evening. The monsoon has shaped, and continues to shape patterns of economic life in India, but one of the most fundamental shifts over the past half century is really the coming together of the monsoon’s natural and human histories, reflected in mounting evidence that human activity is itself reshaping the monsoon.

Sunil Amrith:
It has a human history in the sense that this is also a history of science, a history of climate science in India. It has a history in the sense that it is part of a history of ideas about climate, nature, and society. And I shall suggest this evening that water has been central to different conceptions of India’s freedom and India’s future.

Sunil Amrith:
The monsoon has long evoked many emotions: Anxiety, longing, wistfulness. This is a very well known photograph of Raghubir Singh, which hangs in MoMA: Monsoon Rains, Munger, Bihar. I’ll focus on the prosaic in my lecture today, but I think we also need histories of the monsoon in Indian art, literature, music, photography.

Sunil Amrith:
I’d like to begin with a moment where, really for the first time, it seemed that the monsoon might just be a problem that could be solved. Reflecting on the state of India’s development, the members of the Indian Industrial Commission wrote confidently in 1918, that: “The terrible calamities, which from time to time depopulated wide stretches of the country, need no longer be feared. In a monsoon climate,” they said, “failure of the rains must always mean privation and hardship, but no longer need it lead to wholesale starvation and loss of life.”

Sunil Amrith:
This conveyed a strong sense that something fundamental had changed in India over the first two decades of the 20th century. The risk posed by climate had been mitigated, both by policy, by the early warning system of the famine codes, and by technology; above all, by irrigation. As long as India remained predominantly agrarian, some level of risk would remain, but the Commissioners envisaged a future in which industrialization would provide new employment and greater security as India’s population moved from the countryside to the cities.

Sunil Amrith:
In the 1870s, the idea that famine was inevitable in India prevailed amongst British administrators. By the 1920s, most observers believed that India had conquered famine, and yet the worry about water did not go away. We can see this deep anxiety about the material underpinnings of life in the ways that many leaders in Indian politics, leaders in the nationalist movement, scientists, engineers, thinkers wrote about freedom, because in many of these conceptions of freedom, water was crucial.

Sunil Amrith:
“Modern science claims to have curbed the tyranny and the vagaries of nature,” Jawaharlal Nehru wrote in 1929, but there remained a large gap between that potential and the reality of life for millions of Indians. Nehru, amongst others, was clear about the material urgency behind every vision of freedom. “Our desire for freedom is more a thing of the mind than the body,” Nehru said. He was talking to his colleagues. “But for most Indians,” he said, “they suffer hunger and deepest poverty, an empty stomach, and a bare back.” “For most of India’s population,” he said, “freedom was not the thing of the mind, but a vital bodily necessity.”

Sunil Amrith:
For his part, Mahatma Gandhi made a different sort of link between nature and freedom. We see this during his iconic Salt March. Choosing the British Salt Tax as the symbolic focus of his nonviolent protest, Gandhi observed that next to air and water, salt is perhaps the greatest necessity of life. The vital properties of salt linked the coastal ecosystem with the lives of millions inland. Gandhi’s was an argument about climate and society. He pointed out that the poorest who labored outdoors in the heat, were those most in need of salt and sustenance.

Sunil Amrith:
So a wide range of Indian thinkers, scientists, activists, drew different lessons from their awareness of this pressing material need, and the centrality of water to that need.

Sunil Amrith:
We can see this, for example, in the divergence of opinion between the sociologist, Radhakamal Mukerjee, and the scientist, the astrophysicist, Meghnad Saha. Both of them were concerned with Bengal’s rivers. Both of them recognized the centrality of water to the livelihood of people, to agriculture, to health. And both of them saw the importance of water to India’s future, but they saw that future very differently.

Sunil Amrith:
Mukerjee believed that a restoration of what he called writing in the 1920s and thirties “ecological balance and respect for the distinctive nature of each riverine ecosystem” would provide the seeds for revival.

Sunil Amrith:
Saha’s prescription could not have been more different. Saha was scathing in response to those like Mukherjee, who’d argued that afforestation and local efforts of soil conservation would strip the Damodar river, for example, of its destructive power. He called the claim – which was widely believed in the 19th century – that deforestation affected rainfall, absurd. Saha wrote that this was a claim for which there was not a single iota of positive proof. If changes in forest cover and land use had any effect on local climate, Saha argued, these must be extremely small compared to the huge monsoon currents, which are responsible for India’s rainfall. So rainfall, in Saha’s imagination, was beyond human intervention.

Sunil Amrith:
But human intervention to transform the landscape could neutralize the threat posed by hydraulic uncertainty, securing rivers from the alternating paucity and excess of water. And here Saha was confident about the future. “We are fortunate,” he wrote, “to live in a time where the large-scale experience of thousands of dams constructed in the United States are at our disposal.” He believed that the global circulation of ideas and technology, a process of learning would come to India’s aid.

Sunil Amrith:
In valorizing the Tennessee Valley Authority, and also the Soviet example, Saha indicated that his dreams for India extended beyond anything that the sluggish British colonial stage could carry out. He envisaged the construction of dams in eastern India that would last for hundreds of years.

Sunil Amrith:
My invocation of Saha brings us to the topic that, I think more than any other, has dominated discussion of India’s water policy, and that is large dams. As I’ll discuss in a moment, large dams have undoubtedly been of pivotal importance symbolically, socially, ecologically, but I think it’s also a mistake to search the early 20th century only for the roots of India’s later enthusiasm for large dams. Instead, what we see, I think, is a multiplicity of ways of addressing India’s dependence on the monsoon, and these were at once more vocal and more global than the exclusive focus on large dams as a matter of national policy would suggest.

Sunil Amrith:
In 1951, India carried out its first census after independence. It was, at that time, the largest census ever undertaken in the world. The average life expectancy in India stood at just 31 years for men and 30 years for women. Already in the US, at that time, that figure was 65 years for men, and 71 for women. For every thousand live births in India at the time, more than 140 infants died. And in the minds of many of India’s leaders, this was an indictment of two centuries of British rule.

Sunil Amrith:
The political theorist, Pratap Mehta, has argued that the immediate converts of political power in post-colonial India was dictated by the intensity of mere life. That is to say, poverty and destitution put most Indians – and Mehta in this sense echoes the quotation from Nehru that I gave out just a few minutes earlier – under the pressing dictates of their bodies, and the imperative to address these needs, Mehta observed, can have no limiting balance. “This simple logic,” quoting Mehta, “transports power from a traditional concern with freedom to a concern with life and its necessities.” In this quest, the conquest of nature was pivotal.

Sunil Amrith:
The 1950s were characterized by a newfound ambition and confidence that the dictates of nature might be conquered. There’s no question that large dams, perhaps more than any other technology, came to symbolize progress and freedom in post-independence India. It was an era when, in Sunil Khilnani’s memorable phrase, “India fell in love with concrete.” Excellent visual illustration of the allure of large dams that was mounted an exhibition held at the Nehru Memorial Museum a few years ago, called Dams in the Nation. And a lot of this was really about the symbolic power of dams as symbols of freedom and independence in newly post-independence India.

Sunil Amrith:
This is a picture of Nehru at the ceremonial inauguration of the Bhakra Dam in Punjab, addressing a crowd of hundreds of thousands of people. This is taken from one of dozens of public information films which played before the feature blockbusters in the cinemas of the 1950s, telling a heroic story of India’s war against nature.

Sunil Amrith:
Nehru’s reflection that these dams were the temples of new India has often been cited. Kanwar Sain, the second head of India’s Water Authority, wrote that, “These river valley projects constitute the biggest single effort since independence to meet the material wants of the people, for full irrigation brings ultimately, the sinews of the man from power to sinews of industry. And these were multipurpose projects designed simultaneously to provide irrigation, water, and hydropower. Cruel reality: More than 90% of the dams of India have been used primarily for irrigation.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain voiced the hopes of many of India’s planners and architects when he declared that dams are indeed the symbols of the aspirations of new India, and the blessings – note this shift to a religious language – that stream forth from them are the enduring gifts of our generation to posterity. Note the fusion of the language of science and faith, reason and eco-rapture.

Sunil Amrith:
So one aspect of the story has been very well studied, and that’s the very tangible influence of American hydraulic engineers, people like David […]. On the Damodar Valley Corporation in particular, Dan Klingensmith wrote an excellent book on this. And my friend David Engerman’s exhaustive recent history of India in the Cold War adds a lot of detail to that. But the point I’d like to make here is that the Americans and the Soviets were not the only influences on India’s love affair with dams. India in turn shaped approaches to the challenge of water across Southeast Asia.

Sunil Amrith:
So in May 1954, Kanwar Sain – who I just quoted – chairman of India’s Water Commission, and KL Rao embarked on an official visit to China. Their goal was to report back on China’s water projects in the first years of the People’s Republic. They focused in particular on Chinese attempts to use dams to control flooding along the Yangtze and other rivers.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain and Rao were in fact amongst the first outsiders to see firsthand China’s massive hydraulic experiment. They arrived in China in May 1954, and they stayed for two months. They spent much of their time on the water. They actually traveled by boat along the Yangtze for most of their journey. They were the protagonists of India’s colossal efforts to control water, and yet the scale of work that they saw in China dazzled them. They undertook their tour of China exactly half a century after the Indian irrigation Commission had traveled through India in search of water. And in a sense, theirs was part of the same quest. The farmers of the late 19th century had unleashed in India a desperate and continuing search for sources of water to mitigate the dependence on the monsoon.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain and Rao were both trained squarely within a colonial tradition of Indian water engineering, but now they represented an independent nation, and for inspiration they looked not only to Europe, to America, but to revolutionary China.

Sunil Amrith:
And consider the contrast between the two tours. When the Indian irrigation Commission, at the beginning of the 20th century, traveled with a retinue of servants and specially chartered trains, Sain and Rao were given strictly limited foreign exchange and accompanied by just two interpreters.

Sunil Amrith:
Their report contains an extended list of every single Chinese official they met, from ministers to field engineers to water scientists at the College of Hydraulic Engineering. They were struck by the quality of China’s hydraulic engineering. They delighted in the firm emphasis given to technical education in China. They praised the Chinese capacity for improvisation, building huge dams from local materials when imports were in short supply. Naturally, their thoughts turned to comparisons with India.

Sunil Amrith:
There were clear differences in the challenges that each country faced. One sharp contrast between India and China was indeed climatic. Once again, what made India distinctive was the monsoon. “Unlike India, hemmed in by the Himalayas,” they wrote, “China is open to Central Asia. This meant that in the summer, China, unlike India, is not the single objective of the air circulation of a whole ocean.”

Sunil Amrith:
By contrast, China’s rivers were more menacing than India’s, more prone to burst their banks. So in Sain and Rao’s stark comparison, India’s great need was irrigation, China’s was flood control. Both our countries bide an industrial future. Of course, the promise of hydroelectric power attracted them both.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain and Rao returned to India with a firm sense that there were lessons that India should learn from China. But there were ominous portents, too. In his farewell speech bidding Sain and Rao farewell, the Chinese Director of Water Resources had described how China’s water projects had been extended to the border regions of our fraternal minorities to promote national unity. There was no attempt on the Chinese side to disguise the fact that water was intrinsic to political power. The conquest of water meant the conquest of space. Unspoken at the time was the sense that some day the border regions in question may include China’s borders with India.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain and Rao faced another problem when they returned with the first ever maps of China’s water projects to be seen outside China. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs was rankled by what Sain and Rao had missed; that the maps they’d been given by Chinese water officials claimed as Chinese territory a large part of the borderland that the Indian state saw as integral to India. The maps were destroyed.

Sunil Amrith:
Interestingly enough, in the Indian edition of my book, Unruly Waters, the maps were deleted at the very last minute, before it was published. These are still very, very sensitive issues, particularly the maps illustrating that chapter on India and China in the 1950s. The maps were destroyed, redrawn to accord with India’s understanding of its territorial boundaries.

Sunil Amrith:
Sain later wrote in his memoirs that he was deeply grateful this had been done before the volume was published. If it had not, it would have been a source of great embarrassment a few years later, when India and China went to war over just those borders. Tellingly, Sain and Rao’s report was, after 1962, treated as a classified document until the 21st century.

Sunil Amrith:
Just as China’s experiences inspired India’s water engineers, so India became a model to the rest of Southeast Asia. In 1955, the director of the UN Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East, the South Indian economist […], commissioned Kanwar Sen to join the UN mission to survey the Mekong river. “The prick has gone too deep to be halted.” That’s how Sen described his sense that large scale hydraulic engineering was inevitable now in the Mekong as elsewhere in Asia, given the bold claims that had been made on behalf of big dams, given the hunger for progress and development that he saw wherever in the world he went.

Sunil Amrith:
The Mekong commission was quickly overshadowed by the escalation of American involvement in Indochina as the US became caught up in military conflict in Vietnam, then engulfed Vietnam’s neighbors as well. But Sen actually continued in his job. He was a patriotic Indian engineer at the pinnacle of his profession, enamored of China, but with close personal and professional links to the US Bureau of Reclamation. He chose to spend a decade of his career with what became the Mekong River Commission, trying to coordinate the development of Asia’s most international river, notwithstanding the palace politics that the scheme was stymied by.

Sunil Amrith:
In his memoir, Sen hints the material reward of working with the UN might have been one incentive for him to stay, but his motivations went much deeper than that. He believed, like so many of his generation, that taming the waters was a goal beyond ideology. Working for the UN alongside many former colonial civil servants, engineers now turned to development consultants, Sen held a vision of Asian nations working together to claim their rightful place in the community of nations.

Sunil Amrith:
In a memoir that is detached, even clinical in tone, a rare moment of emotion comes when Sen describes what he says was his pilgrimage to the site of Angkor Wat in Cambodia while on his first Mekong mission. “I was very much moved by the ancient glory and culture of India reflected in Angkor Wat,” he wrote. Just as many of India’s water engineers at home presented their new temples as really standing within an ancient historical tradition of Indian water engineering, so here Sen appealed to a deep history of cultural exchange across borders to provide ballast for his vision of an Asia united by the challenge of water.

Sunil Amrith:
By the mid 1960s, this approach to water that had epitomized the post-independence period ran into trouble. In 1965 and ’66, large parts of India suffered from drought. This threatened food shortages, even led to famine being declared in Bihar, the first since Indian independence. India’s growing and uncomfortable dependence on American food aid was clearly illustrated by the monsoon fairies of the 1960s. “How helplessly we are at the mercy of the elements,” a newspaper editorial lamented in 1965, arguing that really all India had to show for the previous decade of development efforts were some shallow and tentative improvements in irrigation.

Sunil Amrith:
The crux of the Indian government strategy from the mid 1960s onwards was to concentrate modern inputs in irrigated areas. This is a very prosaic way to describe a fundamental change. From the 19th century India’s geography of water had shaped plans for the country’s future. Now the difference between irrigated and rain fed lands would be accepted as a necessary inequality even as a matter of strategy. It drove what we know as the green revolution, which combined the substantive irrigation inputs with new high yielding seeds that had first been tried in Mexico and the Philippines. The precondition for the growth of the green revolution in India was a massive expansion in irrigation, and however large the downs, however monumental, they were insufficient.

Sunil Amrith:
Cultivators in arid parts of India have known for centuries, and the British recognized the 19th century that India’s groundwater resources provided perhaps a better insurance against drought. As early as the 1880s British authorities in Bombay and Madras had experimented with electric pumps to extract groundwater. In 1950, there were already around 150,000 electric pumps in use in India. By the end of the century that number was 20 million, and India was the largest user of groundwater in the world. Until the 1960s groundwater could not be mobilized on a large enough scale to meet India’s requirements. The widespread use of tube wells and electric pumps changed that decisively. And if you look at this graph of irrigated India, you see a very sharp increase around the end of the 1960s. All of that is groundwater.

Sunil Amrith:
As a lawyer for the […] show, India’s groundwater law, however, continues to be shaped by colonial precedence that accorded absolute rights over groundwater to property owners, with no recognition of its growing public importance for Indian agriculture. I’ll talk about some of the consequences of this in the last part of my talk. Large dams had held out the promise of irrigation water plus hydroelectric power. In the groundwater era, demands for water and energy came together in a different way. State governments encouraged the pursuit of productivity by subsidizing the capital costs of infrastructure for this intensive exploitation of groundwater.

Sunil Amrith:
State electricity boards reduced the cost of electricity. By the 1970s, unable to bear the cost of monitoring energy use by millions of farmers dispersed across the country, state electricity boards opted for flat tariffs. As a result, agriculture’s share of total energy use in India grew from 10% in 1970 to 30% by 1995, even as the state electricity boards accumulated huge losses. Groundwater today accounts for 60% of India’s irrigated area, surface irrigation. The large dams only 30%. All the while, and despite the declining importance of surface irrigation, the profusion of large dams continued.

Sunil Amrith:
In fact, the 1970s were the peak decade of dam construction in India, and the social and ecological costs have multiplied. Since the 1950s, large dams have displaced millions of people in India compounding the loss of land and livelihood with the rupture of communities through the process of resettlement. The range of estimates for the number of people displaced specifically by dam projects in India ranges from 16 to 40 million people since 1947. These estimates come from the World Commission on Dams. The Red Cross, in 2012, went for the higher end of that range, as has the work of activists like Warren Fernandez and the geographer Sanjay Chakraborty.

Sunil Amrith:
So between 16 and 40 million people displaced by large dams. Under classes have been by far the worst affected, least able to negotiate adequate compensation from state and local governments. The environmental consequences of large dams have also been concentrated in the areas of the dam’s construction. Reservoirs have drowned millions of hectares of forest. Canals and barrels have disruptive water flow and drainage, often accompanied by a rise in vegetable diseases.

Sunil Amrith:
There was nothing inevitable about this outcome. I think we should not lose sight of the ambivalence and complexity with which these questions were viewed, even as these policies were being enacted. Even as large projects were pushed forward heedless to protests, this was accompanied by a growing consciousness of sustainability and loss, and the rise in India of one of the world’s most diverse and large environmental movements. It’s the first UN conference on the environment, as many of you know, it was held in 1972 in Stockholm. And Indira Gandhi was actually one of the very few heads of state to attend that first conference on the environment.

Sunil Amrith:
And in her speech to the plenary session she discussed the ecological problems that were already a matter of public discussion in India. She set out a position that saw environmental degradation is primarily a problem of poverty, a problem of distribution, not of numbness. She reminded her audience that we inhabit a divided world, and I think rightly many scholars have drawn a straight line from Indira Gandhi’s speech to the sorts of positions that the Indian government took right through the nineties and two thousands in climate negotiations. Indira Gandhi attributed historical responsibility for environmental destruction to the wealthy countries of the world. Many of the advanced countries of today reached their present affluence by their domination of other races and countries, she said, and through the exploitation of natural resources.

Sunil Amrith:
“We do you not wish to impoverish the environment any further,” she insisted, and yet we cannot for a moment forget the grim poverty of large numbers of people. Her most resonate phrase, the one for which the speech is usually quoted, was in the form of a question. “Are not poverty and need the greatest polluters?” She concluded by describing to her audience how she saw India’s quest since independence. “For the last quarter of a century,” she said, “we’ve been engaged in an enterprise unparalleled in human history. The provision of basic needs to one sixth of mankind within the span of one or two generations.”

Sunil Amrith:
It is such a startlingly simple insight, but one that we’ve perhaps forgotten in this application of speed, urgency, and scale by her recognition of the demographic and material transformations that were sweeping the world in the 1970s. She was pointing to a phrase that subsequent environmental historians have really labeled the great acceleration. As I mentioned a minute ago, the 1970s were also the moment that India saw the rise of a diverse but interlinked set of environmental activists. These included rural movements like the famous Chipko movement as well as urban activism. A group in Bombay in the 1960s and 70s, for example, called so clean, which took an early interest in air and water pollution.

Sunil Amrith:
Since the 1970s the wave of local opposition to large dams, in particular, has grown into one of the largest social and political mobilizations that India has seeds since independence. The best known of them is the non mother movement, but there are many others alongside it. The first citizens report on the state of the Indian environment, which was published in 1982, was something of a landmark intellectually in the development of India’s environmental movement, and articulated this very specific connection between social justice and environmental protection, which I think has characterized environmentalism in India. Interestingly for me as a historian, many environmental activists in India in the 1980s began to look to the past.

Sunil Amrith:
They began to look to what we can probably conclude is a romanticized idea of a past of harmony and ecological balance. This is a very influential publication from the mid-1980s, “Ding wisdom, the rise fall and potential of India’s traditional water harvesting systems.” They drew on a tradition of thought that went back to rather common Mukherjee and Gandhi. They sought the principles of ecological balance and traditional practices of farming, fishing, and artisanal production.

Sunil Amrith:
Their edition of the past was in many ways a useful fiction. It doesn’t really accord with what environmental historians and archaeologists have shown us about the environmental history of South Asia over many centuries. But nevertheless, this particular vision of a past of ecological balance was mobilized in a very powerful way politically. So let me come to a conclusion. I suggested at the beginning that from the beginning of the 20th century, the monsoon has been seen as a fundamental problem in modern India. Geological research has shown that the monsoon over the last twenty, thirty years has exhibited increasingly erratic behavior.

Sunil Amrith:
Regional drivers of changes in the monsoon circulation, chiefly driven by aerosol emissions and land use change interacts with planetary warming to make the monsoon increasingly erratic, increasingly prone to extremes. The monsoon does less well than almost any other climatic phenomenon in global climate models because it is so complex. As ever, most attention has been given to solutions that are squarely in the tradition of top down water engineering. For example, a river linking project, which is underway now in India with the strong support of the current government to build tens of thousands of kilometers of canals to link India’s Himalayan rivers right down to the Southern tip of the peninsula.

Sunil Amrith:
Interestingly enough, the architects of the river linking project quite explicitly see their inspiration as the 19th century British water engineer, Arthur Cotton. In constant, we’d see that Arthur Cotton in the 1870s wrote about: “Wouldn’t it be great if we could bring the Himalayan rivers down to the tip of the peninsula?” It embodies a view that the civil servant Ramaswami Iyer, who was a big proponent of large dams, but towards the end of his life changed his mind, decried just a few years before he died, as reflecting a Promethean attitude to the control of water. The space of dam building in the Himalayas in particular has met with resistance, and it comes with heightened risks. And this is a map from a few years ago of all the proposed dam sites in the Himalayas. And this was from the geological mapping that on top of the most seismically active zones in the Himalayas.

Sunil Amrith:
The risks are ecological, the risks are geopolitical, given that each one of these rivers is transnational and crosses boundaries in a part of Asia where there are very few treaties governing water sharing. Meanwhile, groundwater levels in parts of Northwestern and South Eastern India are particularly depleted, and this is a NASA satellite image that shows the shift just from 2002 to 2008 in ground water levels in India’s agriculturally most productive region. I am neither a water policy expert nor an engineer. I am concerned with what the perspective of history can bring to illuminating some of our public debates about water and climate.

Sunil Amrith:
So a few words and conclusion on what I think a historical perspective can bring. Living with the uncertainty of the monsoon has been an inherent part of life in South Asia from the earliest times. Over centuries, South Asian societies have evolved complex social and economic institutions, including, not limited to sophisticated irrigation systems to mitigate the fundamental problem of uneven rainfall and variable river flow. Between the mid 19th and the mid 20th century, the management of India’s water resources changed scale, underpinned by confidence and technology’s capacity to channel, even maybe to conquer nature. The intellectual and infrastructural legacies of that era epitomized by a belief and an investment in massive hydraulic engineering still shape water policy in South Asia. As the legal scholar Jed Perdy has argued in a wonderful book called After Nature, the material world that we inhabit is in many ways a memorial to a long running legacy of contested ideas about nature.

Sunil Amrith:
And in just this way, the current landscape of water in modern India is an outcome of a legacy of contested ideas. Colonial responses to an unfamiliar and unpredictable climate, in the context of agricultural capitalism, nationalist ideas about securing India from famine and deprivation, provisions of scientists and engineers who imagined new ways to harness water, and not least, the claims of hundreds of millions of Indian voters who demanded for their communities and their regions the fruits of progress and development. It is also an outcome of vast inequalities.

Sunil Amrith:
Inequalities in access to land, to water, and to energy. Inequalities in different groups’ ability to participate in the decisions that govern their lives and livelihoods. So we contend today with the consequences both of success and of failure in that endeavor. And by extension with the successes and failures of Indian democracy, in what Indira Gandhi called its unparalleled effort to provide for the basic needs of one sixth of mankind within the span of one or two generations. The scale of the water crisis facing India today is sobering. But the most important lesson that I think a historical perspective holds is that water management never has been and never can be a purely technical or scientific question. Ideas about the distribution and management of water in India are deeply inflected with cultural values, with notions of justice, with hopes and fears of nature.

Sunil Amrith:
Thank you very much.

Ben Hopkins:
I think Sunil just – I think Sunil just demonstrated why we won a 2017 corporate prize. Thank you for a very thought-provoking talk, Sunil, and I’m sure there’s many questions for all of you’s fine privilege, just briefly.

Ben Hopkins:
But I’ve got one question for you, and that is very clearly sketched out a tradition of technocratic modernism for water management in India the water dam maintenance, economic development. But then my attention was drawn in particular to your picture of the overlay of seismic zones and dams. And actually, Dan Hanes a while ago gave a little presentation that had something similar, and that drew my attention to that map was also a map of security issues for South Asia, right?

Ben Hopkins:
You mentioned, of course, that Adivasi threshold being disproportionately affected by displacement, which makes me wonder how does that feed into state insecurity domestically, along frontiers and the borders. Then even talking about geopolitics – who’s going to control the […] for the Indus that the part of governing water isn’t intimately linked with the art of governing the hills.

Ben Hopkins:
And, so I wonder if you might comment on a third area you hinted at in your talk, and that is perhaps, the security, securitization of the water.

Sunil Amrith:
That’s a vastly important dimension of this. One thing that strikes me is really how relating 20th century the hills came to be the focus of this water engineer. And I’ll get into that specifically, precisely as you asked, that it’s only as both Beijing and Delhi have sought to position themselves in this frontier area that this infrastructure is part, and that part of that establishing presence in the stage.

Sunil Amrith:
Road building usually precedes dam building, almost every one of these cases. I think you have many ways Chinese instance of the post-1980s liberation dams, perhaps even a better example than the Indian one I have given today of how close the security, governability, governance and water management are.

Sunil Amrith:
So then we turn the question that the frontiers of water engineering in this entire India are also regions which central governance have the disingenuous hold over, which are regions where local populations are being disenfranchised. Often feel alienated from exactly those kinds of nation-building, modernizing projects from the 20th century on, providing and aligning logical moves […].

Ben Hopkins:
Now, let’s open it to the floor. My questions, my only request would be if you could identify yourself before you ask your question. Yes?

Speaker 3:
Hello. Hi. My name is […]. I am a senior and double majoring in history and international affairs. My question is sort of related to the question that Dr. Hopkins asked. The rationale is that dams in India are a symbol of progress and modernity, and also the indigenous peoples and central tribes seem to be disproportionately affected by these.

Speaker 3:
I was wondering if you thought there was some sort of connection between the fact that internal development for roads in India conceptualize […] backwards populations? And […] progress, as related to the fact that there are the people who are most easily displaced in this vulnerable are you find, because of these symbols of progress.

Sunil Amrith:
I think you put more eloquently than I did, and that’s because it is exactly one of the reasons why they have been disproportionately affected is because their state’s view of themselves to progress is something that’s rooted. […] doesn’t change very much after Indian independence. So if in a sense, there are many scholars and then Adivasi activists who almost write some new channel for those and these are often I think some of the terms of the state’s approaches to those communities.

Sunil Amrith:
So there’s that, but there’s also the fact that of course, the Adivasis’ lifestyles and livelihoods depend on forests. And it those forests that are both economically valuable, but also precisely where these dams are to be built, make way for a different kind of primitive landscape and for a different kind of infrastructure. But I think that […] is important.

Sunil Amrith:
We know people are asking the question, but why are they not heard? Why does it take until the 1970s, 1980s for there to be large-scale protests against these types of displacements? But I think a lot of that has to do, also it has to do with more so that has to do with inequalities of power, and it has to do with precisely that. I think Mary says in the late 1940s the very first group people who are displaced in India was for the […]. “If you want to suffer, at least you suffered for the issues.”

Sunil Amrith:
And I think that that mentality is still current, that these are necessary costs for progress. But perhaps, the question that isn’t asked so much is well progress, but who is going to be disadvantaged for this? And who is there are certain groups disproportionately burying those costs.

Linda Yarr:
I’m Linda Yarr, here at the Sigur Center. You mentioned that the two engineers went to the Ghaghara River, you mentioned. So as you know, there is a quite pushback of civil society throughout Southeast Asia, the international rivers network, any number of organizations in Thailand, Vietnam, in Laos and elsewhere. To what extent do you see a connection between civil society and anti-movements in Southeast Asia and South Asia?

Sunil Amrith:
Very good question. And it’s something that is very close to my heart, in terms that it’s one aspect of the story they’re continuing to delve into. I think there are lots of connections, and they actually go back to the 1970s. One of the interesting things about this publication and other publications in this group is […].

Sunil Amrith:
Their first publication was called Citizen’s Report on Saving the Environment, and it was published in 1982. And it was a very short preface which says something that I find profoundly interesting, which is that their inspiration for that book actually came from Malaysia. And that it was actually going to Penan, which in ’70s was a real center of consumer activism, which by the late ’70s had turned into consumer/environmental activism that they got the idea because it had to be this consumer’s association of the lying cup, it had to be late ’70s published a citizen’s report of the state of Malaysia’s environment. Focusing particularly on deforestation, on how vastly the tribal peoples of Malaysia were being impacted by some of this development.

Sunil Amrith:
The same network around Penan, it morphs into something a little bit above the network. By the 1980s, they’re the ones who published Bruno Manser’s first book. I mean, Bruno Manser becomes perhaps the best-known environmentalist in the ’80s and ’90s. Really a spokesperson for the anti-localization movement. And in fact, he’s also first published out of Malaysia, and these networks that I think really are really important to the 1980s and ’90s.

Sunil Amrith:
I don’t know that the intent of the situations around the Indian environment that those links are as strong as they might have been on both sides. I suspect that through the 2000s these kinds of networks between civil society groups and trying to come together to see a shared government and were in search of these things.

Deepa Ollapally:
Deepa Ollapally from the Sigur Center, as well. But similarly we spent our possible alternative scenario to a securitization of water. And I will, I may suggest, that when you look at the China, India area that looks valuable in the area, one of the things that comes up is, of course, the Tibetan water tower, where all these rivers are in fact flowing from the headwaters. But then, when you look beyond the India, China and go further into Pakistan as well as Bangladesh, India is a midway area.

Deepa Ollapally:
So, the point is that when you look at relationships among these countries, your political relationships, because that’s what I look at. The idea that somehow China being the argument of control and having other forms of water, and so, if there’s dam building that constrains water to India, it’s also constrained to Pakistan and Bangladesh, who happen to be very good friends of China.

Deepa Ollapally:
So there is, I see a more complex set of relationships that then, perhaps the technical and political coming-together, where they only have to sort it out in a way that it could be an area of cooperation, rather than competition. How do you see that?

Sunil Amrith:
I mean, I think the goal of the whole confluence on that emphasis is sometimes neglect, but this is seen as a deal by both Indians and the Chinese are heavily invested in that construction in that part of the job. And I think that it’s precisely that level of complication.

Sunil Amrith:
It certainly led me not to conclude in my book that geopolitical conflict is the only way to get this to work out. I mean, I know some people are very strongly of that view, but I think I really agree with the theme dealing more around the geopolitical scenarios in that there are such complicated relationships.

Sunil Amrith:
Now, obviously, they’re also very much private sector investors involved. That’s one way we see things very different from that period of […] I was talking about when this was all state-financed or bank-financed, into such demand. I mean, now you have, of course Chinese engineering companies they’re such role models in the region, in parts of Africa. But there are also some private interests, too. So I think it’s become a much more complicated scenario than simply thinking about it in such a simple way.

Kristen:
Hi. My name is Kristen, and I’m studying history. I was particularly moved by your conclusion that […] provides the goods to alternative fuels to think about these problems, cultural to […]. Preservation issues in thinking about certainly the way that water has been controlled and incorporated into architecture, as these advanced use cases.

Kristen:
But also, the symbolic power of water, and particularly that the Indians should have a […] from the rivers. And I was thinking about river […] and the wonderful depictions that we have, and especially for it.

Kristen:
Did you find in any time of your research thinking maybe about what they do […]? In what ways have this cultural power, this sacred power of rivers, of these waters, has that come to play in these kinds of conversations about dam building or not?

Sunil Amrith:
That’s a wonderful question. What I’m struck by is that the sacred and spiritual power of the water is very edited in the 50s and 60s. And yet, somehow completely distinct from the conversation about dams, developers and the future. It’s not that one displaces the other, but that it’s that it’s sort of – so my colleague Diana Eck wrote that wonderful book India: A Sacred Geography, the chapters on rivers ends on the discussion: how could the Ghangra be the most revered and the most the future river of the world?

Sunil Amrith:
And she works through, without focusing a clear answer, she works through that question. And so the 50s, just when they’re building these big dams, there’s a massive complement out of the 1950s, which the burst after independence, which brings so many tens of millions of people to converge precisely on some sacred carrier river.

Sunil Amrith:
[…] in his last will and testament, he writes in a sort of spiritual sense about the Ghangra and about how he wishes his ashes to be buried there, not because he’s religious but because nevertheless, it represents the continuity within history. The narrative recalls that the dams are the temples of India comes this other side, there is this other vocabulary, there is this other way of thinking about water. Really in everyday life, the sacred power of the waters means as much as any of these infrastructure projects do to a lot of people in that area of existence.

Sunil Amrith:
And it’s sometimes when these things clash with one another, as I think they start to do in the 1980s that you see interesting ways of trying to address the relationship between the two. I think the main thing that’s happening is actually in the Indian courts.

Sunil Amrith:
So the National Green Tribunal of India actually recognized sacred groves, the preservation of sacred groves, as falling under the region of religion in the constitution. And there are ways in which even some decisions in Indian Supreme Court are almost personified nature in a way, not quite giving it rights in the way that some communities do it. But nevertheless, bringing in these arguments about the spiritual and sacred value of these rivers. It interestingly enough, is in the courts post-1908s that you see that tension really coming into form.

Harmony:
Hi, my name is Harmony Gale I’m a student at this school. The question I explore in my project, as you mentioned it, it is given a right and it is starting with the British power. Why do you think it’s getting that wide revival? I mean, we took the […] when in 2015 started and it began, but based along an opponent of it. There’s not opposition on it, and it started in 1917, and it’s a bit more […]. Why is that?

Sunil Amrith:
It really is an idea that just won’t go away. I mean, it was there in the 1870s, and there’s a moment in the 1960s where they start talking about it again. And I think some of it is just this profound sense that India is so shaped by the real inequalities of the water there, that it really does condense the waters in some of the driest places on earth. And that has clearly been something that’s wrangled in the minds, particularly of water engineers, of how we fix this?

Sunil Amrith:
I mean, I think there is that sense starting around the late 19th, early 20th century that the technology is there to do something about this. I think Madden makes the same comment in the 1950s, he says: “So much river in certain part of China, we need the gods to give us some.”

Sunil Amrith:
Across the ideological spectrum, I think there’s something profoundly attractive about this. I don’t think it will ever happen, and one of the reasons is purely that we think we controlled little today about water conservation and transform a way, but profound water advantage within it today. And I think that is what more than anything else, will stop a project like this. The common dispute has been going on since, depending on how you look at it, 1920s or 1950s. It continues to escalate to take on others, but nobody knows what they want.

Sunil Amrith:
How the river damming project will be governed on a integral level, is I think one of the things why it keeps running into trouble, and quite a large cost of it which is estimated now to […] dollars. And of course, there are profound concerns about being able to handle the impact and not taking rights. But even if those are featured in the compilations of both forms of government, I think these are these federal obstacles in this kind of project in India that are always a subject.

Speaker 8:
This is a question about – when I was in Chennai a few years ago, it seemed like there was a revolutionary water, rain water collection technology that was really changing the face of local water environments. Before actually having water for people in particular, on a regular basis was before, to buy it at a very dear price. Has it indeed changed things in […]? Has it changed things throughout India?

Sunil Amrith:
It has certainly not changed things throughout India. I think there are particular regions where there really has been a far greater investment in managing just thinking about water and I think Gangnam is one of them, Rajasthan is another. Meera Subramanian wrote a book called A River Runs Again, in which she investigated and interviewed some deeper […].

Sunil Amrith:
She investigated the revival of all water valleys in parts around Rajasthan, which did rely on these large technologies. But I mean, there is this about this romantic return to a […]. And some things are very new technologies, but then small-scale technologies, technologies that really do bring water to progress in ways that even the large dams often can’t.

Sunil Amrith:
And I think this is part she is very concentrated. I think it has a lot to do with particular political cultures, as well as particular other cultures, and Gangnam how the water activists since the 1990s have been pushing in this kind of direction.

Sunil Amrith:
They’ve got major public figures involved, including musicians and authors. And there’s a lot of brands about these things. But there is also an infrastructure of chance in Gangnam, which even if it was in decay, and it had been in neglect for a long time, some of which can be used in way to save Rajasthan. But by and large, if you read the work of the architect of this story, and […], it’s not happening.

Speaker 9:
I wonder if I can get you to go back to actually your starting point when your colleague asked you about the history of the monsoons about what sort of history. And I look at the title and you have Water and the Making of Modern India, and to be slightly provocative and push back, evocative national history in a way. And I wonder, what are the opportunities, but also the consequences of giving an ecological history with a national frame?

Sunil Amrith:
I’m not sure we really can. I mean, I think this is one of the things that gave this particular frame where a project and the book that this is from, one of the things that we again think is, we can’t write this story with a national lens. Not least because the monsoon – […] of monsoon is a dramatic phenomenon […] wants in science, wants specifically the story of monsoon sands from centuries of realization in the fact that monsoon has gotten a whole planet’s worth. And that is not something that can be delivered in the Indian subcontinent in say the 1850s or the 1860s.

Sunil Amrith:
But that it’s a real issue and that the issue and it’s effect on climate, as well as arguing on health. Every single one of these is regional trans-national sort of issue. And this is one of my challenges in starting to write my book. What would it mean to go to those certain areas, which there are a lot of people here.

Sunil Amrith:
We are so concerned with regions, how regions come about, what binds them together, where the boundaries are, how flexible their boundaries are. What would happen if we married that area of misconception with building an ecological conception?

Sunil Amrith:
So one of the things that started me on this whole project was the fact that in the social sciences, we all can agree monsoon Asia. There’s not one that we use. It’s one that colonial geographers used in the 1920s and 1930s, but it was a conversation. But that’s what is uncontroversially used by water scientists.

Sunil Amrith:
And, so that for me, really is one of the things that got me thinking about the monsoon, national distance of the monsoon, and how do you put scenarios that have perspective on this, with the focus on the fact that it is for a period in the 19th century the national states, which most tribes intervene to reshape the landscape of water. And yet, this is all what is seen in the boundaries.

Speaker 10:
I have a question about the politics of big dams. When I think about the politics of irrigation in India, I think of the Green Revolution: seeds, to wells, subsidies, and the farmer’s movements in the 1980s and 1990s that lead to a lot of that type of provisioning in that cultural sector.

Speaker 10:
Your talk portrays the politics of water; it’s very top-down, very technocratic. And I’m wondering if there is at all a broader politics of what public sentiment is with respect to dams? And how affluent parties have positions on dams, beyond just the Adivasi issue?

Sunil Amrith:
I think there absolutely is growing politics with water. I think it’s a very important politics of water. I think a lot of this does come down to who the groups that have benefited from these dams. And I think a lot of those farmers movements in the 1980s, 1990s were calling for more subsidies, for more two worlds, and I think as they were beneficiaries of this.

Sunil Amrith:
On the other hand, you have the farms who presented in the more recent past, the generation in un-irrigated parts of India, and who – maybe they want more irrigation? I mean, I don’t think this by any means had […] coming from the ground up. It’s not a story of top-down position dams. I think the opposition to dams is very specific and very pragmatic about the environmental level. You have those displaced by particular projects, like […], which of course, was huge at its peak.

Sunil Amrith:
But in some sense, there’s allowed nominees, because some of its supporters probably found that element of project might not have been in their interest, and water was not very often a major platform. But now, I think you will know this as more than I do about this perhaps, but I very rarely see water issues on election manifestos. Certainly elections have water like health, which is in fact both valuable but often politically invisible.

Sunil Amrith:
I don’t think most political parties have a major position on – I think most of the main political parties are more in favor of dams. Except those, who can make political capital out of a specific dam project, which perhaps […] constituents. And the politics of dams is also, I think in the interstate politics of dam building. So it’s a bit of a huge […] politics over the particular plans that the other side might have for those river waters.

Sunil Amrith:
So in that sense, there’s a politics of dams which has to do with control, which has to do with state boundaries, the state interests, the state rights. So I think every level of farmers movements to the geopolitical, which some of the other questions were suggesting towards.

Speaker 1:
We have time for one more question.

Joshua:
I’m Joshua […], I’m an undergraduate history major. So my question has to do with the economics of Pakistan, and taking time along their water scarcity crisis. Are there any lessons you can take away from what India’s doing, in how they’re working on the preservation of water? Anything specific that you can think of in how that might be something worthwhile […]?

Sunil Amrith:
I think Pakistan’s water crisis isn’t anything worse than India’s case. But there is measures that list them as the most stressed country in the world … Whether there are direct lessons from India, and whether those lessons would be palatable is another question. Particularly, given the rise in tension over the … in the recent months, that the Indians tried to withdraw the industry for the second time in the last four or five years.

Sunil Amrith:
I think there are conversations that are happening in other levels, going back to the earlier question. Indian and Pakistani environmental activists talk to each other. I think they exchange information. There are forums, neither in India nor Pakistan, where they can actually share the fact that some of these are very much shared problems and there are solutions to them.

Sunil Amrith:
I think there is a movement in Pakistan, particularly after the terrible floods of 2010, to think about the implications of climate change, thinking about the implications of that particular water infrastructure that Pakistan has become so dependent upon. And how it is in fact, the intensely engineered landscape that made floods so bad. And I think there is a movement within Pakistan, albeit on a small scale, that allows you think about perhaps other models. They may not come from India, I think there are many other places that re just as lacking.

Speaker 1:
Well, I think that takes us to the end of this evening’s formal program. Please, join me in thanking Sunil for his insights and really thoughtful questions about water in this part of Asia.

 

headshot of Odd Arne Westad in professional attire

05/02/18: 23rd Annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture: Empire and Righteous Nation: 600 years of China-Korea Relations–A Discussion with Dr. Odd Arne Westad

Buff and blue logo of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies
GW Institute for Korean Studies logo
Wednesday, May 2, 2018
5:30 PM – 7:30 PM
State Room, 7th Floor
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E St., NW Washington, DC 20052
 
Painting of tributary mission from Korea going to China
 
Co-Sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the
GW Institute for Korean Studies 
   
 
 

The Sigur Center for Asian Studies holds an annual memorial lecture to honor the legacy of the Center’s namesake – Gaston J. Sigur, Jr. The Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture has featured many distinguished and high-level experts from various backgrounds and professions related to Asia.

You are cordially invited to attend this year’s Annual Gaston Sigur Center Memorial Lecture with Dr. Arne Westad to discuss China-Korea historical relations.

This event is on the record and open to the media.
 
 
About the Speaker: 
 
Headshot of Arne Westad in professional attire
Dr. Arne Westad is the S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations at Harvard University, where he teaches at the Kennedy School of Government.  He is an expert on contemporary international history and on the eastern Asian region.
Before coming to Harvard in 2015, Westad was School Professor of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).  While at LSE, he directed LSE IDEAS, a leading centre for international affairs, diplomacy and strategy.
 
Professor Westad won the Bancroft Prize for The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times. The book, which has been translated into fifteen languages, also won a number of other awards.  Westad served as general editor for the three-volume Cambridge History of the Cold War, and is the author of  the Penguin History of the World (now in its 6th edition).  His most recent book, Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750, won the Asia Society’s book award for 2013.
 
Professor Westad’s new book, The Cold War: A World History, will be published in 2017 by Basic Books in the United States and Penguin in the UK.  A new history of the global conflict between capitalism and Communism since the late 19th century, it provides the larger context for how today’s international affairs came into being.

 

Transcript

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Good evening everyone. We’ll go ahead and get started. I recognize many of the faces in the room. For those of you who I don’t recognize, my name is Dr. Benjamin Hopkins. I’m the Director of the Sigur Center here at the Elliott School. It’s my great pleasure to welcome you for our 23rd Annual Lecture. This evening, we have a distinguished guest from Harvard this evening, Professor Arne Westad. Before I introduce Arne however, it’s my pleasure as well to say a couple of words about the Sigur Center. The Sigur Center, for those of you who don’t know, is the university’s center for Asian studies. We have a long and illustrious history and for our namesake, Gaston Sigur, some of his family’s here this evening and I’d like to recognize them. Paul and Susie Sigur are upfront joining us for this evening’s lecture, both of whom are Elliot School alumni. I’ll spare them the years, but in the not too distant past, and I should also note the remembrance of Paul’s mother, Estelle, who passed away peacefully in November of 2017 and we were very sorry to hear of that loss.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
With that said, it’s my pleasure to introduce Professor Arne Westad, who is the S.T. Lee professor of US and Asian relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Before coming to Harvard in 2015, Arne was the school’s professor of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science [LSE], where he arrived as a professor in 1998, the same year I arrived at the same institution in my first year of undergraduate studies.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Now, while at LSE he directed the LSE IDEAS Institute, which is a leading center for international affairs, diplomacy, and strategy. Then, like any good academic, he jumped the pond to join us over here in 2015. A leading global thinker, he is an expert on contemporary international history and on Eastern Asian region particularly. His numerous publications include The Global Cold War, Third World Interventions, and The Making a Modern Times, which was the winner of the Bancroft Prize, amongst other many recognitions. He served as General Editor for three volumes of the Cambridge History of the Cold War and is the author of the Penguin History of the World, presently in its sixth edition. He has also authored Restless Empire: China in the World since 1750, which was published in 2013, and the winner of the Asia Society Book Award, and just recently published The Cold War: A World History, hot off the presses in autumn of 2017.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Today he will be speaking to us about his new book project, which is both a return to form with its focus on East Asia but also an extension of his repertoire back in time. He has entitled today’s talk, Chinese-Korean Relations, Empire and Righteous Nation, 600 Years of China-Korea Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Professor Arne Westad.

Professor Arne Westad:
Thank you very much Ben for that wonderful introduction. It’s great to be back in Washington. It’s wonderful to be back at GW – one of my favorite institutions this side of the pond because it’s done so much to develop research in the areas that I’m interested in. Not just here at the Sigur Center at the Elliott School, but in more general terms as well. Dealing with Asia, dealing with the Cold War, the things that I’m most preoccupied with. It’s wonderful to meet up with old friends. Ben said, I’ve known him since he was an undergraduate at LSE and it’s been wonderful to see that he has really made his mark in terms of international affairs and history, and done so here. Good match if I may say so, both for GW and Ben. But also a number of other people who I see in the audience who I’ve interacted with over the years here in Washington.

Professor Arne Westad:
I want to thank the Sigur Center, I want to thank the Elliott School of International Affairs, and Ben of course especially for inviting me to do this lecture. I also want to, since I had a chance to talk a little bit with Gaston Sigur’s family before we started up here, to recognize Gaston Sigur in his role, maybe first and foremost, as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Reagan administration. I had the privilege of working on Mr. Sigur’s papers in the Reagan Presidential Library. Both of them were released not long ago, and some of his efforts have a very direct connection to what is the situation today between United States and South Korea.

Professor Arne Westad:
That was one of the many issues that he worked on us as Assistant Secretary and where I think quite a lot of progress was made at the time, some of which didn’t quite materialize later on, but may in part, I’ll get to this later on, form a pattern for some of the interactions that we see on the Korean peninsula today. So it’s doubly meaningful to be here tonight to give a lecture in his name.

Professor Arne Westad:
It’s a pretty tall order that we have before us tonight, ladies and gentlemen. It’s not easy within about 50 minutes, which is what I promised them, that I would stick to, to give an overview of a very important bilateral relationship over a period of roughly 600 years. I will divide this into three parts. In the first part, the first 15 minutes or so, I will deal with 500 years of China-Korea relations, in the second 15 minute interval, I will deal with about 100 years of China-Korea relations, and in the third part, I will deal with the last two weeks or so of China-Korea relations. I think that’s about right in terms of where people’s interests are. But one mustn’t forget the first part in order to try to make sense of what is going on today.

Professor Arne Westad:
That’s the reason why I chose this particular topic and why I’m making a small book that Harvard Press will publish probably at the beginning of next year on this topic coming out of these lectures. I gave a first version of the lectures at Harvard last year, then they went into three lectures over three consecutive evenings. I also have done versions of this in Beijing and in Seoul. I’m looking forward to the discussion of them here. Now I’ve done the three capitals, but now I’ve done it here in Washington as well.

Professor Arne Westad:
So first of all, the title. The title is always important when you try to address something, particularly if you do it as an undergraduate lecture, but also when you do it for a broader audience. So why on earth have I called this lecture, “Empire and Righteous Nation”? Now let’s start with “righteous,” and not surprisingly, that refers to Korea. It doesn’t mean that all Koreans are righteous. It doesn’t mean that any Korean states at any point or any form has necessarily been a righteous state. But the term is used here to indicate that a search for a righteous approach to domestic and international affairs has preoccupied generations of Koreans very, very much. Perhaps more than what you’ve seen in many other countries.

Professor Arne Westad:
Some of my Korean friends say that I mix up “righteousness” and “rectitude,” which are not exactly the same, but I’ll talk more about that later on in terms of the overall approach. But do bear in mind that slight tongue in cheek reference to righteousness that’s here in the title. Before I get to the Korean definition of the interactions, we have to start with China. The reason why we have to start with China is because China is the empire of the title. The heavier, if you like, of the two entities. In order to understand something about China’s relationship with Korea over this long period of time, I think it makes sense to think a little bit about what an empire is.

Professor Arne Westad:
Now, empires come in many different forms and in different shapes. They’ve been around for a very long time, at least for 5,000 years, since the Assyrian Empire around 2000 BC. So what is it if we try to compare these various forms of empire that connect them? A central authority obviously connect them. If there is no central authority, there is no empire. There also has to be a systematic form of thinking to regulate the relationship between the center and the various peripheries that exist within an empire. That’s roughly where the comparisons end, because after that, empires tend to be very different and behave very, very differently.

Professor Arne Westad:
Some empires colonize externally, not all empires do. Some employers are born more or less in the shape that they have later on and can stay with for a very long time. If you think about it in the European context, Ireland for instance, Nigeria, both settled by colonialists coming from the Imperial center. That tends to raise a certain reference to Korea and the Korean experience in this, being on the borders of the imperial center. But in this case, Chinese settlements in Korea were exceedingly rare during the period that we’re looking at. There were people who settled on both sides of the border, but in very, very small numbers and certainly very different in terms of numbers from the only real attempt at settling foreign colonialists in Korea, which was during the Japanese occupation from 1910 to 1945, when more than one million Japanese settled in Korea. That was a much bigger wave than anything that you saw during the long period of China-Korea interaction.

Professor Arne Westad:
If you really want to go back in time, and I think this makes sense for people who want to look at this relationship, it is useful to think about the similarities and the differences between the Qing and Han Empires in China, or in the Chinese area, and the Hellenistic and Roman Empires in the West. Not because of the similarities between the two or the differences, so much that of them created the format for empire in Asia and Europe. Some of the aspects of these formats have been with us for the last 2000 years and are probably still around when we discuss what empire means in a sort of broader sense.

Professor Arne Westad:
On the Chinese side, I think what most of the various Chinese empires that have developed since Qing and Han, and there have been many of them of course, what they have in common are first and foremost, two things. There is on the Chinese side, a sense of cultural centrality within its wider region. The region is in many ways, by all of these Chinese empires going up to the People’s Republic today, a definition of their world. But it’s also important to see this within a framework of China’s orientation, and this is what many Westerners get wrong. China has always been oriented eastward, towards the Eastern seaboard, with some very brief exceptions. During the Tang Empire for instance, and maybe briefly during the Song. But for most of Chinese history, its orientation has been towards the east, away from the rest of Eurasia but towards Korea, towards Japan, towards Vietnam. I think that’s important. Cultural centrality, but within a direction in terms of where the gaze is turned.

Professor Arne Westad:
Secondly, in terms of connecting these various empires, going from the Han and up to today, a strong emphasis on hierarchy. Hierarchies internationally, hierarchies domestically, and through that an emphasis on bureaucratic governance. This is what Benjamin Schwartz calls this tremendous weight of the state in China and in Chinese governance systems. Many empires and many national states have an emphasis on the state for understandable reasons. Russia, for instance, is often used as an example of this, but you find other European examples as well, but there was nothing quite like China in terms of the longevity, the durability of this emphasis on the state as being at the center of Chinese civilization and Chinese society. I think it’s important to bear that in mind when we think about its foreign relations as well, which brings us to the tribute system. I promise to bring up the tribute system in this talk tonight and I will.

Professor Arne Westad:
The tribute system is, as my Harvard predecessor John King Fairbank defined it, was a system to which China, through – in slightly different ways and he was open to that – through various empires regulated its relationship with its wider reach. Now I must confess that the more I have looked at this in terms of Chinese foreign policy over the past 2000 years, the more it has struck me that the tribute system has been more of a system at Harvard than it ever was in Asia. There is no doubt that tribute existed and that it was important, and there is no doubt that various Chinese empires integrated their neighbors, particularly culturally, in a very deliberate kind of way. But it was done differently towards different areas and at different times. So emphasizing these differences is essential for understanding the relationship between China and Korea because there is no other relationship within the region that it can really be compared to.

Professor Arne Westad:
It’s a different kind of relationship, today and in history than what China has with any of its other neighbors, and I think that is important. So tribute existed but there was no unified system. There were different frameworks of tribute, of trade, of terminology, of the East that governed this longer period in terms of China’s interaction with the outside world. So the two Chinese empires that we cover tonight are the Ming and the Qing. The Ming, as most of you here will know, runs for almost 300 years from the 1360’s to the 1640’s or thereabouts, and the Qing from the 1640’s to 1912, also for almost 300 years. So these are long time periods, right? These are qualities that survived for a very long period of time – also by Chinese standards, by the way. That is important because if you look at the relationship between China and Korea, that sense of durability, endurance in terms of how the qualities were organized, has a very significant impact on the relationship itself.

Professor Arne Westad:
It also has a great deal of impact in terms of how the two sides saw each other. How authority, for instance, is understood. I often, when I lecture on this, draw on Max Weber’s and his typologies of the state with regard to this, both on the Chinese, and as we’ll hear later on, on the Korean side, what Weber calls “traditional authority.” If there’s going to be anything that’s meaningfully called tradition, it has to be around for a while. That’s true, I think, for these two Chinese imperial institutions and even more so for the Joseon on the Korean side of it, we’ll get to a little bit later on because it lost it even longer. What’s particularly important with Weber, is not so much the characterization and sometimes had been made into a caricature. It is whether this insistence that, and I caught him on this, the bureaucratic administration as in China means “fundamentally domination through knowledge.” So that emphasis on knowledge lasting for a long period upon the accumulation of knowledge as a ordering factor within these empires and how it deals with the outside world. That’s where I think the emphasis ought to be, not on an integral system or of political integration, but on how knowledge is used from the Chinese perspective, first and foremost, to understand the world around them because some of the elements of that knowledge are still with us today and that’s something that I think is crucial. It’s not just crucial for China, of course, it’s true with other empires as well. Knowledge reframe empires, right? In general. I think Ben can tell you a great deal about this. And that’s important, but it’s particularly important when you deal with an empire, which is acting towards immediate and contiguous neighbors.

Professor Arne Westad:
But Russia perhaps is the only other modern example that we have of that kind of imperial expansion. Which then brings us to nation, and this is the more controversial part of what they have to say initially. So Ming and Qing China, they’re many things, but no one can meaningfully imagine them as nations. There were empires consisting of different pots with an imperial institution at the center, which was deliberately transnational, always was. It had to be because there were so many different people’s groups, identities or where which it ruled. Under one predominantly leads an attempt at expanding a central culture. Absolutely. But with an emphasis necessarily on difference and differences. But if we don’t draw the similarities over to Korea, does it make sense to speak of 20th century Korea, as I do indirectly in my title, as a nation.

Professor Arne Westad:
So historians have tried their best to be good at this, at eluding that question by simply pointing to the great coherence in cultural and linguistic terms of people who today live on the Korean peninsula, right? A process that goes back in genetic terms at least 3000 years. And it’s relatively interrupted, the relatively uninterrupted. In linguistic terms and many of you here will know this modern Korean, derives from middle Korean, which in turn derives from, you probably guessed it, old Korean, which has its roots in some form of proto Korean. You know, if you go back 2000 years or so. So this is something that’s been around for a very long time and there is still two ways about that. You can’t get away from that. There is a continuity in these particular terms, which is of course not everything right, but is significant in terms of the population and in terms of the language that they speak.

Professor Arne Westad:
But some of this, as I wrote it elsewhere, it’s a typical historian’s copt, right? So not everything that is distinct becomes a nation. In any meaningful sense of the term. I like, quite alright, the Oxford English dictionary definition of a nation, they say that nation is specified as a large body of people united by common descent, history, culture or language inhabiting a particular state or territory. So that definition emphasizes something in common and it emphasizes co-location, which is in my view, about as far as you can go when you are talking about nations. If you want to be more specific than that, you always get into trouble.

Professor Arne Westad:
So one of my older colleagues at LSE on a [inaudible 00:22:49] was the one who first pointed out with great force that in order to understand nations, you have first to understand nationalists, right? And his was very much a contemporary European take on the concept of nation. Gellner said nationalists create the nation not the other way around, right? And that’s been followed up by other people, they said, no we never see tradition on this, totally a myth, it’s more recent, all of them who query and challenge the concept of nation in terms of how it’s being created and I’m in favor of all of it. I think it’s, I think it’s very, very important to do, but I also think it’s important to see differences between different cultural traditions in terms of how you understand that cohesiveness that we sometimes put under the heading of “nation.”

Professor Arne Westad:
So “Korean,” is defined in terms of its history possibly in terms of it’s an ethnicity, certainly in terms of its culture and civilization, something which became particularly important against the Qing. Being in it, at least for me in a meaningful comparative sense, much of what those who defined concepts of nation in 19th century Europe seem to have been looking for. So therefore I think it’s meaningful at least for the sake of debate. If you think about Korea going back at least to the late 16th century as some kind of national, a proto nation, in terms of its cohesiveness, probably wouldn’t have been a wrong [term] otherwise.

Professor Arne Westad:
Okay, so what then about the righteousness in all of this? Now righteous in classical Chinese is “yi” or “we” in Korean, which means defined in different forms, moral fitness, loyalty, fidelity to principles, possibly also rectitude. I mean meaning the quality of being correct or being true. But I particularly like righteousness. I mean the state or quality of being righteous and just. And the reason I like that so much is that in this classic Neo-Confucian concept coming out of 11th and early 12th century China, that’s where most of the discussion has been. What does it mean in a Confucian context to be righteous or to be just? How do you organize your life and your state and your society in order to live up to those kinds of ideals? How do you fight for it when necessary?

Professor Arne Westad:
It’s not unimportant that in this context that the Korean popular army that was raised against Japanese invasions into 1580s was named the Righteous Army or we’d be wrong, right? This has a significance in terms of the definition and that’s not the same thing you’re saying that all Koreans are righteous, but it is saying that this concept has had a particular meaning in Korean Neo-Confucianism that goes all the way up to today. And I think it also plays a role in terms of the days reductions between China and Korea, and the United States and Korea for that matter. So let me then just provide a brief overview of Korea and China coming out of the late 14th century and why the late 14th century? Well, this is because the Ming and the great Joseon Dynasty were created roughly at the same time.

Professor Arne Westad:
I never meant very much about the same kind of things. So the Ming was about a revitalization of Chinese tradition. But it was about regulating China’s relations to surrounding states. It’s fascinating to look in the late 14th early, 15th century, how quickly that ordering of China’s relationship with the outside world appears on the main agenda, right? It was something that they were really preoccupied with. In that sense, the Ming was a project. It was a specific project connected to various forms of Neo-Confucian thinking.

Professor Arne Westad:
But if the Ming was a project, the Joseon in Korea was even more of a project connected to the same kind of ideas. It could be said to be in many ways the supreme Neo-Confucian project, right? Because it was so distinctly ideological, ideological within the sense of state building. But what did it consist of? I think it’s important to understand that as an attempt at a complete remaking of Korean society, according to the principles of Neo Confucianism. It was very narrow in many ways, but it was also deep in terms of what the state and significant parts of society outside of the state eventually came to do. So state and society were structured according to the moral principles that the Joseon elites saw as governing the universe; harmony, hierarchy, family, self-cultivation and learning.

Professor Arne Westad:
And not so surprised to hear this, the concept of righteousness: how you should live your lives. So Joseon was an ideologically driven state to a remarkable degree for as long as it lasted, all the way up to the beginning of the 20th century. It was also remarkably successful to the degree that it survived the biggest challenge of the time, which was very much as Korea is today, being caught between China and Japan. To expanding Chinese empires, the Ming and the Ching, and the reconstitution of Japanese power.

Professor Arne Westad:
And it outlasted all of the political rearrangements in China and Japan simply by going on and on and on and never giving up, which again, is very much, I think, dependent on the ideological framework that underpinned it and the conviction about these values. Surviving the great East Asian wars, which I don’t have time to go into today, of the late 16th century, was quite a feat. And the Joseon were able to do it simply because the refuse to capitulate, because capitulation would have meant giving up on these ideas that they believe govern not just Korea, but governed the region or for that matter that govern the universe. So ideology is a very important part of this.

Professor Arne Westad:
From that idea also came the concepts of China, when the Qin then replace the Ming in the early 17th century. With the Korean idea of that transition being that it was fundamentally illegitimate. Now, the Korean state was not suicidal, so it didn’t try to proclaim to everyone that the Qing, the new project that they’re taking power in China, was illegitimate.

Professor Arne Westad:
But it’s no doubt that there’s your evidence from Korea for that time period to show that that’s what they actually believed. To the point of thinking that civilization – at least in the 17th century – that civilization was a lost cause in China and it therefore had to be preserved in Korea. And from that period comes this idea, which you can sometimes find in Korea, even today, North and South, that Korea is – to some extent compared to China -civilizationally superior.

Professor Arne Westad:
It has been able to keep ideas intact that have not quite worked out on the Chinese. Now Koreans have always been divided under this, right? So the majority of Korean elites, when you get into the 18th century, possibly even the late 17th century, we’re happy to make the peace with the Qing, because it figured within the Korean world system. The system had to have a center and that center was China. More about that in a little bit.

Professor Arne Westad:
But it also meant that much of this relationship was undertaken with a significant degree of skepticism. And thinking again about current China-Korean relations, I mean where much of this comes from, North and South. And this is what so many policymakers in this town do not get, that that has always been there, right? Or at least it’s been there for a very, very long time in the Qing-Joseon case, accept the Qing as rulers of China.

Professor Arne Westad:
Accept a vassal relationship to the Qing state paying tribute to Qing emperor, but set up very clear regulations from the Korean perspective in terms of interactions with China limiting tribute missions. For instance, going in both directions so that the incorrect understanding, or righteousness if you like, or on Neo-Confucianism, should not spread in Korea because that would be very bad. So for about 300 years, the Koreans were able to stick to this.

Professor Arne Westad:
This came under pressure only much later, when the Qing, very much inspired by the West in the late 19th century, started to reinvent themselves as a more ordinary imperialist. Not the kind of traditional relationship that had existed between China and Korea. But up to then there was a certain ritualism that was important, you could call it if you like, a very uncommon form of sovereignty on the Korean side.

Professor Arne Westad:
The idea that Korea existed in a special relationship with China, which was the [inaudible 00:03:32] under which Koreans operated. But in a way, by accepting limitations to Korean sovereignty, The Joseon were able to solidify its domestic power. I sometimes think about this a little bit like Western European elites and United States after the Second World War; a role that was gradually taken over by the European Union.

Professor Arne Westad:
You give away some sovereignty in order to rescue the state and the roles of the elite within the state, right? But you never give up on the idea of sovereignty per se, and that resides in your own country. That’s a similarity with China and Korea that I find actually quite meaningful. On the other hand, one has to be extremely careful. We’re thinking that all of Korea’s relationship in this long period to China is mere pretense and this is an era that you sometimes find among young Koreans today. There’s sort of a very Realist, with a capital R, approach to China, Korea relations over a long period of time, basically saying, “Oh, all of this is something we had to do because they forced us to do it.” That’s also not true. I mean the relationship, ideologically, is much deeper than that. If you look at Korean texts from the early Qing era, you find that it’s full of it. The perception on the Korean side, or China as the center of most things, it’s something that has lost it for a very, very long time, certainly up to the 20th century. In some ways even to the 20th century. And when I teach this, I often quote, I can relate Korean Neo-Confucian, a guy called Yi Hangno, who wrote under the impact of the Opium Wars in China in the early part of the 19th century in reaction against Western thinking that would replace China with Western ideas as the center of world development. And Yi was a Korean Neo-Confucian, what a particular conservative one either point or way. I mean, Yi was regarded as being one of the most interesting political philosophers of his time. This is something he wrote in the 1840, I’ll quote it.

Professor Arne Westad:
A little bit of length, but it’s an important quote. So this is what Yi writes after the Qing empire has lost its first wars against the British [from “Sinifying the Western Barbarians”]. “When Chinese civilization encounters a barbarian people, the barbarians are transformed by Chinese ways into a civilized people. Barbarians look up to China and they are delighted to receive its civilizing influence. This is the way things are, this is the natural order of things. This is the way human beings ought to feel. China is like the root, a plant supplying nourishment for the branches and leaves. It’s like the hands and feet, the protected belly and chest of the human body. This can never change. These Europeans, referring to the British, these Europeans come from a land far away from China. So it’s only natural that their customs are quite different from Chinese customs. Like children of peasant households in Korea, though they study Confucian writings as hard as they can, they can never grasp the structure and organization of those writings as well as children from families that have been studying Confucianism for generations.” And on and on it goes like this. This is not just pretense, right? This is a fairly deep understanding of China as being at the center of what is a common culture, a common civilization of which Korea is also part. It’s not the same thing as recognizing any kind of Chinese state, but it’s a way of recognizing China’s cultural centrality. So in my view, this only starts to change very late in the 19th century. And it starts to change in pretty catastrophic ways under pressure from emperors in Japan and from domestic pressures because of rebellions and political dissension within Korea itself, right? Some of which not all of which, some of which has set off by foreign interventions. So as I said earlier on, the Qing empire, which also goes on for a very long time, much longer than most people in the West in the 19th century thought that it would, it fights back, right? And one of the ways in which it fights back is that it tries to transform its relationship to surrounding states in the image of Western appearance. So, from the 1870s on, China very much starts to redefine its relationship with Korea as say France or Britain would do with regard to its colonies. And it’s no chance of working. I mean, in my view and most historians view.

Professor Arne Westad:
For two reasons, one is that it does violence entirely to the traditional relationship that had been established between the two countries. But also because of the rise of Japan that happened simultaneously. So this is what then leads to the 1894-95 war between China and Japan. The first war that China [inaudible 00:09:20] loses against another East Asian state and a war that’s very much fought over the relationship with Korea. And I think this is something that influences Korea very, very deeply, but in different kinds of ways. People think differently about this, not just in terms of the ideologic competition of Korea, which I’m going to talk more about in a second, but also because of the idea or different ideas of what China really tried to do in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Some would say, what China was trying to do was to protect Korea against Japan.

Professor Arne Westad:
But others would say the Chinese and the Japanese were two thieves on the same market. Both of them were out to dominate Korea. They only did it in very different ways. What is really important to me is that it is during this time period that what you could call modern Korean nationalism comes of age. In many ways, this is Korea’s deepest tragedy. That many Koreans stopped to envisage themselves as the very first population group in Asia as a nation.

Professor Arne Westad:
As an integral nation, just as the time when Korea loses its national independence and becomes a Japanese colony, which is in itself a gradual process, I think that all of Korea’s history in the 20th century and up to today is influenced by that relationship and by that set of events. It’s not going to give rise to an intensity of Korean nationalism, which is still with us today in two other different folds, which do have something in common.

Professor Arne Westad:
So one is what you could call the … For lack of a better word, a traditionalist approach to Korean nationalism. The [inaudible 00:11:32] Syngman Rhee approach to Korean nationalism. Rhee was the first Korean to get his PhD from the United States from Princeton in 1910 the very year in which Korea lost its notional independence to Japan. And what he wanted to see was a return to the roots of Korean nationhood the way he saw it, supported by more than organization and technology.

Professor Arne Westad:
So it’s not traditionalism in terms of, I mean, it’s a reinvented tradition, as most traditions are, right? But it’s still something that he believed echoes out of the Korean past. And the alternative coming roughly at the same time, slightly later is Korean communism, also intensely nationalist with, very gradually up to 1945, Kim Il-sung becoming the key figure mainly as we know, thanks to his role in working with the Soviets.

Professor Arne Westad:
Now the Korean communist tradition is very interesting, because in it you also find deep echoes of Korea system. I mean, the idea that Korean communism is just something that’s constituted in some very problematic ways in the 1920s, doesn’t really make that much sense. What is more important I think in terms of the relationship with China, is that Chinese and Korean communism grew up roughly at the same time and got intertwined. Chinese Communist party was from the very beginning uncertain whether Korean communism should be regarded as separate from China. I think that’s something that also lasted for a relatively long period of time. And as we know today, and several of the people here on the audience have worked on this, we have a lot of Soviet documents that show this very, very clearly. How difficult it was for the Chinese communists to figure out that Korean communism was a separate tradition from the old. Some of that I think is still with us today. What bound them together? What bound Chinese and Korean communism together was the fight against a common enemy. Meaning first and foremost Japan, but also the traditions that they saw within their own countries as holding their communities back. And one thing that I always feel sorry that Rhee would put emphasis on is the degree to which the Koreans who lived and worked in China on the 1920s and 1930s for that matter, both in communist and nationalist areas, how they came to define much of the ideas about what a modern Korea would be.

Professor Arne Westad:
We have some literature on that, but not very much. So the idea here, both on the traditionalist and the communist side is the need to find a specific Korean modality, free from Japanese occupation and in some form of communication with Korea’s past. When learning from the mistakes of the Joseon as they saw it, but also having some kind of relationship with other forms of nationalism in East Asia. And maybe first and foremost through China. That’s a pretty tall order.

Professor Arne Westad:
I mean, it’s not easy to do, particularly at the point where you have already lost your national independence, right? And most of this happens in exile away from your own country. This helps me to understand the intensity that the ideological framework for competition within Korea was fueled by after the Japanese collapse in 1945. I think the idea, which is very much held in Korea, both North and South, that the division of Korea in the late 1940s came out of the Cold War. It came out of the Sino-Soviet US set of rivalry. I think that’s only partially true. I think it also came out of the ideological division among Koreans themselves. I mean, how really difficult that is to recognize today. I sometimes go as far when I really want to provoke my Korean friends by saying that, I don’t think it’s entirely farfetched that after 1945 for the first three years or so, there were real opportunities for a united Korea if there had been any willingness among the traditionalists and communists on the peninsula to pursue that kind of path. Later on it became more difficult, when the Cold War hardened as an international system, it became much more difficult to do. But I do think that parts of the responsibility for that not happening after the collapse of the Japanese empire, actually has to do with ideological developments within Korea itself. Not all of it, but some of it does. And this of course then leads to the tragedy, the ultimate tragedy of the Korean, which I won’t have time to go into in detail here today. But of course it’s the defining part of what happened. It’s not just in Korea but in all of Eastern nations of the day.

Professor Arne Westad:
The Chinese involvement in the Korean war is also an enormous significance for understanding China, Korean relationship today. The idea that any Chinese hold that China was sacrificed its own in order to protect Korea against Western imperialism is something that is very, very deeply held in China. Even among the more contemporary generation of policymakers. And that’s sort of why the end of the Maoist era in China – I mean it lived on, I think – up to the group of leaders that are around there now through to the Deng Xiaoping reforms.

Professor Arne Westad:
This sense, that there is some kind of responsibility, particularl responsibility because of it’s sacrifice during the Korean war, that China has all of Korea, not just the North but for that matter the South as well. And of course you can hear the echoes here of that earlier time period that I spent so much time here on explaining. So where does that leave us in terms of China and the two Koreas today?

Professor Arne Westad:
So as we’ve seen recently, not only is this a complicated relationship, but it’s also a very uncertain relationship. I’m just back from Beijing where I spent a lot of time discussing Korea with Chinese friends and colleagues and others. The current Chinese leadership is absolutely convinced that they have to be connected to whatever solution comes out of the conflict on the Korean peninsula. And for that matter of US policy, both with regard to North and South Korea.

Professor Arne Westad:
The Chinese are aware of the weaknesses of the North Korean state. Maybe more aware of it sometimes than what people are in other countries. I generally, when I teach this, go as far as saying that I’ve never met any informed Chinese. I mean, people who actually work on this problem, who believe that the North Korean state is going to survive. They think it’s going to go in one form or another. They don’t like that idea. They want to postpone it for as long as possible. What China wants more than anything else in state terms on the Korean principle is stability. But that’s not the same thing as believing that North Korea, even with its current reforms is an entity that would survive on its own. If they listen more to the Chinese, of course that’s another matter. If they went through the same transformation in social and economic terms that China has gone through, they could survive, they could even flourish.

Professor Arne Westad:
But as I said, I’ve yet to meet any Chinese who believe that the North Korean leadership is actually willing to do that, in a form that the Chinese would recognize anyway. Because some of this is also based on more recent history, the North Koreans coming in the mid 1990s where according to Chinese estimates at least half a million people starved to death, which is not a good advertisement for any regime in terms of what you are capable of doing, when you need to reform yourself, and when you need to transform your policies.

Professor Arne Westad:
So, what is the most likely outcome in terms of the situation that we have today. I mean, China has invested a lot in trying to put pressure on the North Korean regime to come to some kind of negotiated reduction of tension. Including crucially negotiating about the North Korean nuclear arsenal. What was really striking this time when I was in Beijing was that absolutely everyone I spoke to underlined the need for eventual full denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. I didn’t find a single person who said what you sometimes can here in this term, that the relationships North Korea now should be about arms limitation rather that denuclearization. But you can see how that goes together with all the Chinese policies, right? I mean, particularly if things on the Korean peninsula are going to get unstable for internal reasons, the last thing that Chinese want to see is that happening under a circumstance in which a nuclear weapons could possibly be on the loose, right? That’s a worst case scenario from a Chinese perspective. Big question is of course, how much influence China actually has in North Korea? And my view of that is that it is limited and in decline. So, that’s the other thing that is often misunderstood. In Washington, is that China could fix this. China can’t, but it could play a positive role and it should play a more positive role than what it has played so far particularly in working together with United States, maybe most crucially of all working together with South Korea, which is the last best hope that the Chinese have more long-term for stability on the Korean peninsula. This is what makes the current Chinese position so immensely contradictory. And I think it’s only possible to understand in light of the post that I’ve been reviewing today. It’s clear to any Chinese who wants to see that China’s interests, more long term, lie with South Korea with which it has a very powerful relationship in economic terms, but also increasingly in cultural terms.

Professor Arne Westad:
So I mean, in all parts of Beijing or Shanghai or Tianjin or Hangzhou where I was recently, where you could always think that you’ve been transplanted to Korea: K-cosmetics, K-pop, K-surgery, lots of it around. Popularity of South Korean television, lots of soft power, all the kind that you wouldn’t find elsewhere. So some people, again, very often in the United States would write this off in time and say, “This doesn’t matter, it’s the power relations that matter.”

Professor Arne Westad:
I think that would be wrong. Young Chinese today have a very powerful impression of South Korea as a country that has got a lot of things, right, including sort of [inaudible 00:24:21] as they would say. Things that have not been solved in China or things that they do not particularly like about China, and the government needs to take that into consideration. And additional costs to the tremendous significance of economic and technological cooperation that happens between the two countries.

Professor Arne Westad:
So to me the solution is not so much an attempt to return to the past in terms of negotiations, but to try to think, can you? To try to think about how we can get hopefully through the next stage a meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Trump that doesn’t blow up on all of us. Two people actually sitting around the table talking about the only thing that at the moment really matters, which is a denuclearization and the peace treaty, and I think they have to come together. On this I actually do agree with some of the points that the Chinese make. You can’t look at one without looking at the other. What the Chinese would want to get out of this is some kind of guarantees that they’ve looked at what happened in Germany in 1990, 1991 and they do not want to repeat of that under any circumstances. So, for China to accept a form, an integrated, if not united Korea, that still has a close security alignment with United States is out. I mean, China is not going to accept that. So if one on the US side thinks that the German solution is possible, a united Germany within NATO is possible in the Korean peninsula, forget it. The idea that China could be confronted with a fait accompli in Korea, forget it. China would take action to prevent that. That’s how significant Korea is with China. So the stakes are incredibly high with regard to this, right, even when you get to the negotiating stage. So this is what I’m hoping for the region, I mean we now have a unique opportunity to get people to sit down and to talk about these things. And also just because before we’ve been unsuccessful, does that mean that we shouldn’t try again? Absolutely not. This is the best opportunity probably in our lifetime so far that we’ve seen for dealing with some of these issues.

Professor Arne Westad:
We don’t know whether it will be successful, but I do think that the overview of China-Korean relations that are given tonight give us some hope that in terms of the values and ideas and concepts, images that go into it, that that past can actually play a positive role with regard to a solution of some of our current problems. So maybe this is just the historian in me being too optimistic. Normally historians are not optimistically, we’re quite a pessimistic race. But on this I do see some of the echoes of the past actually playing to our advantage. So thank you very much. [Audience clapping]

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Well, thank you Arne for, I think what we all can agree, was the very thought-provoking and in-depth consideration of the long history of the Korean-Chinese relations and how that continues to affect today. I won’t abuse my position of the chair greatly, I have one comment and then one question, then we’ll open to the floor. My comment is that at the end as you were portraying the cultural capital that Korea now exerts in China, that the K-pop in Shanghai and such.

Professor Arne Westad:
The K everything.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Yeah, the K everything in Shanghai. I was looking over my notes and how when you were talking about the Joseon civilization project that it very much echoed the constancy or continuity through that. My question actually goes back to something you mentioned with regard to the Joseon in the earlier period. And I’d be interested in both hearing its current manifestation if there is one. But you characterize the relationship between Qing China and Joseon Korea as an uncommon form of sovereignty, in which China performs a [inaudible 00:28:52] and as you portrayed it, Korea accepts that limited external sovereignty in order to solidify its internal sovereignty. And I thought it was interesting that you almost contradicted but offered a paradox and then comparing that to a contemporary situation, namely the United States and post-war Europe.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Given my own specialty of South Asian history, I also heard residences of the princely states within British India and the idea of paramountcy. And it also brought to mind some of my own current work in which British legal scholars in the 19th century, very contrary to the way political science thinks of it today, did not see sovereignty as indivisible, but rather saw it as infinitely divisible.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
What is indivisible according to these scholars was independence. So, I wonder if you could maybe, if it applies at all, that uncommon form of sovereignty that you talked about in the Imperial context of the early modern period. Does that resonate today and does that give a template or idea of where this might be moving forward?

Professor Arne Westad:
That’s very good. So, if we start with the latter, will Korea, like all other countries in Eastern Asia, see a China that is more predominant economically, strategically, politically, and eventually militarily, than what we have seen over the past 150 years? That’s certainly true. I think one has to be very careful with believing that China – you hear this very often – I think part of the reason why my last China book, Restless Empire sold so well, particularly in this part of the United States, inside the beltway, is that some people believe that the region now is returning to High Qing, returning to what East Asia looked like around 1750.

Professor Arne Westad:
I don’t see that. Nationalism in China has been on the rise. China is, in my view today, an empire in form that has begun to think of itself as a nation state, which is problematic. But nationalism has also been on the rise everywhere else. So the idea that China today could deal with Korea, not to mention a country like Vietnam on its southern border, in terms of anything that could meaningfully be construed as as sovereignty or even tribute, I think is very, very far-fetched. Countries have tried to do that sort of thing to Vietnam in the past and it’s never ended well.

Professor Arne Westad:
So in that sense, that solution is out, right, for today. But if we go back and if we think about how the 19th century is infinitely interesting with regard to this in Asia as a whole. From the Ottoman lands and all the way to Japan, right? Because you have so many different kinds of sovereignty and sovereignty of connection. So various forms that are at play, some of which come from within Asia and some of which come from elsewhere, not just from Europe by the way, but also from other parts of the Middle East. And they become very, very quickly – and India is the best example of this, of course – they become hybrid, right? This is how international law is created in many ways. Out of that colonial moment, but not just in a form that can be dictated by European empires and that’s what the princely states meet, right, in the Indian context. And this is what the difference between sovereignty, the divisibility of sovereignty, and the special position to use the legal term, of independence, actually have to tell us that very often this is about capability. It’s about capability. First of all, it was in terms of imagining different kinds of world order, sorting how things are supposed to work, but also practical capability. In terms of what you are, or capacity, you know, what you are able to do, where you would prioritize your efforts.

Professor Arne Westad:
And on that I see a direct connection both to Ming and maybe especially as you indicated too, early Qing China with regard to Korea. So one of the reasons why the idea of a Chinese colonization of Korea was never on the table with exception of very, very brief periods, was that China’s imperial attention was needed elsewhere. Why on Earth create difficulties in a relationship that is reasonably well-established? Here you can see, 19th century British presence in India coming out very, very clearly, when there were so many borders to be defended, when there were so many people that you had to subordinate because if you didn’t subordinate them, they would do very bad things to you, at least where you imagined a threat. That was not the case between China and Korea. And I think that’s significant even for today, the special sense of ordering.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Wonderful. From the floor. Questions? Comments? Yes, sir.

Q&A #1:
So I have a question here. As a nominated speaker, I just really appreciated your sophisticated presentation and trying to come up with a highly simplistic thought process to understand your point. It seemed to me that you are trying to argue in this presentation that traditional Korea was living under the shadow of the Chinese empire. And i order to deal with this and in order come to terms with this, really very high luxury from China. So the Korean educated elite, they developed a very distinctive identity. That is harder to describe identity, right? So ideology is more important than political views. So that’s my understanding of your presentation, right? I guess my question for you is in the 20th century, so how two Koreas, right, there are two Koreas. How do they deal with this very distinctive legacy, right? So [inaudible 00:05:50] told Xi [Jinping] that ideology is the most important thing for society, but how about South Korea? So do we still consider South Korean people continuing this traditional way of viewing themselves in this [inaudible 00:06:05] world? We find that studying of righteousness, or this is something that are different, today’s South Korea? So that’s my question.

Professor Arne Westad:
Again, it’s a very, very good question and it’s an important one primarily because of misunderstandings in this country and elsewhere about how some of these discourses work and do not work in Korea, or in China for that matter. So ideology, I think is quite useful to think about in this context, but only if you define it as a kind of operative system in a way. If you think of ideology the way we sometimes think about this in the past, many of you are too young to pick this up, Marxism, Leninism, right, or ideologies that come out of particular forms of religion – think Europe back in the 17th century, great religious wars. Then I think one is missing the point. This is informal rather than formal. It’s about manners of thinking, of understanding the world, that come out of the past and that people think would be helpful in order to understand today’s world. United States is very much like this as well. There’s a deep sense of what United States is about, which in my view constitutes, at least in foreign policy terms, an ideology, right? It’s a way of trying to understand how the world works, which is sometimes successful and sometimes less successful, but that’s sort of the main point. The main point is that it’s there and that it comes out of one’s experiences and one’s thinking about [inaudible 00:07:48] situation and in the past. That I think is true also in the Republic of Korea. Sometimes when you’re in downtown Seoul these days, you will sort of forget that because it seems to be a very international place and things of course have happened very much over the past, yes, now two generations. One and a half generation that’s transformed the country because of its tremendous economic growth and the social changes that have gone with them. But if you look at it in terms of people’s preferences, both in social terms and in political terms, I think you still find very deep echoes of that past in South Korea. I’ve been fortunate enough to teach at a couple of the best universities in Seoul and it’s very interesting to see how young people in Korea today understand that legacy of the past. They certainly narrow it down. That’s true for people everywhere, but in terms of the relationships that come out of that particular kind of Confucian background that I’ve talked about, I still see quite a lot of that that is there today. I probably, and this is the crux of my answer, I think to your really good question. I see more of that in Korea than what I see in China. China is more cut off from its past than what Korea is. I think that has a lot to do with recent Chinese history. I think it has to do with language, language changes. It’s harder for young Chinese now to go back and read a text from the past. You could argue of course that that’s true for young Koreans as well, but many of these would be available in Hangul translation, right, from classical Chinese. So, that sense of Korean identity, that it is somehow in a communication with the Korean past. That’s something which I think people who have not spent considerable amounts of time there do not rate highly enough. And I think when we think about the potential for solutions, political solutions on the Korean peninsula, it’s well worth bearing that in mind.

Jisoo Kim, Director of GWIKS, Q&A #2:
Thank you so much for your fascinating talk. I really enjoyed it. I have a conceptual question. So when you use the term righteous nation and you’re explaining about your usage of the term. So, I guess my question is sort of related to his question. So are you trying to refer, to my understanding is, you were trying to refer “righteous nation” to a certain period, but then are you trying to sort of use that concept onto modern Korea as well? In other words, are you using in your research right now, are you using “righteous nation” to refer to Korea, either early modern or modern Korea, trying to see some continuities there. So I guess in your answer, it seems like you are, in that case – what I want to know more is your usage of righteous. You did explain, but I think it’s not enough. As a scholar of Joseon history, I kind of want to ask more and ask for you to elaborate on your usage of righteous. The concept of righteous army that first emerged in the Imjin War. And, actually I edited the book, my late advisor’s book. JaHyun Kim Haboush’s book.

Professor Arne Westad:
Oh yeah. Great.

Jisoo Kim, Director of GWIKS, Q&A #2:
The Great East Asian War and the Birth of the Korean Nation.

Professor Arne Westad:
It’s a great book.

Jisoo Kim, Director of GWIKS, Q&A #2:
And there she discusses about how the concept of nation emerged and challenges the Western notion of nation there. But, so, are you trying to extend that notion in using the term “nation,” or so what is, well, because I think just explaining that it was, I mean, Joseon Korea was an ideologically-driven state. Righteous was obviously a very important principle and concept of Confucianism. But I think there should be more explanation, because here if you were to use “righteous nation,” I think I would like to hear more of your usage on the term.

Professor Arne Westad:
Sure. And why that is particularly important among all the Neo-Confucian concepts that could have been picked. Yeah. So, if I’d had time today, I would have gone back and discussed some of the literature, including the one that you contributed to, on the late 16th century, which is in a way a seminal moment for defining the practical content of Neo-Confucian culture in Korea. This is true for any ideology. Ideologies only prove themselves when they come up against a kind of situation that they have to provide meaning to. Not necessarily a solution to, but that ideology has to be able to explain what’s going on. And part of the reason for the longevity of Neo-Confucianism in Korea is that that’s exactly what it did is to sort of explain why Korea was attacked from the outside, why it ended up in this situation. It was because it was there, the Korean state was there, the Joseon state was there, to protect these Confucian values, of which righteousness is one, against attacks from the outside and tried to undo this established world, right? So in that sense, it was perfect, right, because it explained that totally. So the reason why I use this for this lecture, which after all is intended mainly to bring us up to today’s situation in Korea, is that I think that of all the Neo-Confucian concepts, righteousness is the one that has preserved Korea in terms of identity up to today, but also the one that has made the inner Korean strife that has gone on over the past three generations, so difficult to resolve. Because of the belief in one’s own righteousness and the righteousness of one’s aims, which I think was as deeply held by those who created modern day South Korea as those who created modern day North Korea. It’s just that it’s different, right? It’s different in terms of the form of state and social organization that was created, but it’s very deeply held and that’s the part that I think is really important for today. So those who think that you can negotiate with North Korea in a way, believing that North Korea would in the end negotiate itself away in a kind of, sort of, East German kind of solution, I think are entirely wrong because even in, now, in the third generation of revolutionary leaders in North Korea, the idea that they are the last best hope for the Korean nation, in total, is very strongly held and it can only be understood out of these concepts that their actions are righteous. They come out of a period of weakness, subordination, terror for the Chinese nation during the Japanese occupation, which they understand and many people in the South understand, not just as an attempt to colonize in Korea, but exterminating the Korean nation. That’s the reason I think why these concepts have to be taken seriously today because they are distinguishing features of the two states that were created in Korea in the latter part of the 20th century.

Tian Han, PhD, #3:
Okay. I got to speak. So I’m Tian Han, I’m a second year PhD student in the history department here. So my question is specifically about what do you think of the importance of communist ideology and also the communist way of governing the state in Chinese-Korean relations because I think in the history of China’s foreign relations, some scholars like Professors Niu Jin and Chen Jian actually emphasize on the importance of this communist ideology in China’s foreign policy. I’ll ask, how would you think of this communist ideology in China-Korea relations and also, I’m thinking that if you think in terms of these communist ideology lens, it’s probably come to a more pessimistic picture about nowadays situation in Korea because we see two communist countries, whereas South Korea, America, Japan are all democratic, so it’s a big division here. So I would like to hear your opinion on this issue. Thank you.

Professor Arne Westad:
That’s a good question. I think, the work of people like [Professor] Niu Jin, who by the way is not with us at Harvard for the semester and my friend and colleague Chen Jian is important for understanding this, but in a way I think that it’s more historical than contemporary. So, this is what I tried to underline in my remarks earlier on is that, one has to understand that both of these phenomena in a way come out of a common route, right? They have a lot to do with each other. There’s this discussion among Chinese communists in the 20s and 30s is whether Korean communism should really be a branch of Chinese communism, right, because they are so closely connected. What happened later with Korean communism, I think, establishes it also in the Chinese image as being something that is related to but also very different from communism in China. It is a very difficult question. It’s hard to say when that actually happens. The way I see it, is this was a gradual process from the establishment of the North Korean state and up to now. The idea on the Chinese side, it’s always been there, that communists in Korea ought to learn more from China, but also the realization of the unwillingness of Korean communists to do just that is not something that has come about over the last five years. It’s something that has been there since the 1950s. So whenever China has tried to significantly alter the course of Korean communism, they have failed in doing so. Even on the occasions back in the 50s, as many of you would be aware, when they were able to act in conjunction with the Soviets, even then, Korean communism, Korean communist organizations were strong enough within their own territory to completely blunt these attempts. And I think that realization is there in Beijing now. What I see in China is a particular relationship that’s not so much created by the relationship between two communist states. The distinctions are too significant for that, but more one that is historical and to some degree sentimental that goes back to the Korean War that we fought and lost a lot of our own young men for this country and implicitly fought for this regime, right, for the North. So we therefore have a stake in all of this. We cannot be shut out from it, right, which I think is not always a helpful position to take, but it certainly is one that is understandable.

Professor Arne Westad:
North Korean communism on the other hand, has taken a direction that many Chinese find increasingly hard to recognize. There are elements in Korean communism as practiced in the North Korean state which are very far from any kind of Chinese model of communism. The emphasis for instance on ethnicity, even race that you find in some of the North Korean discourse. And that you do find sometimes directed implicitly against China is of course very hard for the Chinese to swallow. One of the things that people in this city ought to look at more closely is the degree to which the North Korean regime over the past few years have been able to turn on China when China acted in ways that North Korea did not like, both domestically and in more public terms. So I was, not on this occasion, on the last occasion I was in Beijing, I was by some Chinese officials who work on North Korea. They presented me with a long list of complaints against North Koreans. They did this not because I asked for it, but I think because they believed that it was necessary to point it out. One of them goes as follows: This is from 2016. A North Korean circular. This is a domestic circular on China where it refers to China as, “This country styling itself a big power is dancing to the tune of the United States when defending its mean behavior with such excuses that it was meant not to have a negative impact on the living of the people of the DPRK, but to check its nuclear program. If the country keeps a prior economic sanctions to the DPRK.” They say the country. They never say China. “If the country keeps applying economic sanctions through the DPRK while dancing to the tune of someone often misjudging the will of the DPRK, it may be applauded by the enemies of the DPRK, but it should get itself ready to face the catastrophic consequences in its relations with us.” Now, this is the kind of talk that sets off the alarm bells in Beijing, right? And not in terms of lack of influence, but in terms of what could really go badly wrong in that relationship, particularly when we’re thinking about the country on its border that has its own nuclear program.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
I think we have time for one more question.

Young-Key Renaud, Professor Emeritus, GWIKS:
Hi, I’m Young-Key Renaud. Actually, when you think of the word Koreans use when they think of China, with its “sadae,” meaning like “serving the great.” I think this is very much related to the condition notion that many perfecting Koreans always go for the best, not necessarily the biggest country. So it relates very well to the current situation. They go to America to study certain things. Maybe to France to study something else. So they, they, and then all the impartation of different thought systems, they have done it themselves. They were not proselytized. So when you think of this, even through this system, it is really not losing something to maintain their independence. I think it is really some of them, they really admired in the Chinese civilization. They were persuaded by the value of different systems and also ideas. So, they are not afraid of criticizing big powers today. More confident in dealing with [inaudible 00:25:04]. So, we don’t have to say they were really forced to do this, or they had to do it. I think a lot of it was voluntary. The whole city system should be actually considered in a bad light and very word, “the righteous,” I agree with Jisoo. I think we might try to look for another word because in some sense every civilization, everybody thinks they’re righteous. Don’t you think?

Professor Arne Westad:
Well, to some degree I think that’s true. I think there are differences of degree though, that are important here. The concept of righteousness is never played – if you compare China and Korea – has never played in the whole of the Neo-Confucian era in China, as much of a role that it clearly did in Korea, right? So it was a favored term. It was not non-existent in China and elsewhere, but it seemed to have attracted for a very long period of time, a particular attention in Korea. Now, linking that to the first point that you made, which I entirely agree with, I wonder, and this is purely speculation, but I sometimes wonder whether that has to do with being the smaller country within the region and needing to find some way of defining itself against somewhat intrusive, certainly bigger, and sometimes rather violent neighbors. There has to be a particular quality to being Korean.

Young-Key Renaud, Professor Emeritus, GWIKS:
I think Koreans are in fact very proud to be part of that greatness. So it’s not just a matter of survival. They actually were proud to be able to kind of do the things Chinese would do. Because they were culturally, philosophically, and scientifically persuaded in modernity. They wanted to be part and not miss the boat and same thing goes on today.

Professor Arne Westad:
Sure. But don’t you also think that there was a need within all of that, that I fully agree with, to distinguish what was Korean?

Young-Key Renaud, Professor Emeritus, GWIKS:
Yes, of course. It’s like the invention of the Korean alphabet. They studied all the theories, but they said it was proper for them, it was something else. And they were not afraid of inventing one after using it for thousands of years.

Professor Arne Westad:
Right, right.

Young-Key Renaud, Professor Emeritus, GWIKS:
Like Chinese characters.

Professor Arne Westad:
Sure.

Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center:
Well, I think that fully takes us to time. Arne, you transported me back to my first year as an undergrad in the Hong Kong theater and being properly put in my intellectual place, shall we say. Thank you very much for an expansive and engaging talk, which is befitting for our commemorative lecture and thank you as well to the audience for coming in and joining this evening with us.

Professor Arne Westad:
Thank you very much. That was great, thank you.