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3/27/19: The Development of Sino-Japanese Relationship After the Xi-Abe Meeting in 2018

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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

12:00 PM – 1:30 PM

Elliott School of International Affairs

Room 505

1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 
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The Sigur Center and the Organization of Asian Studies cordially invite you to a panel discussion on the development of the Sino-Japanese relationship after the Xi-Abe meeting in 2018.

About the Event:

Despite the fact that China and Japan have not reached agreement on the Diaoyu/Senkaku island issue, their relationship is getting warm after the cold spell since 2015. In 2018, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo visited Chinese President Xi in Beijing and reached many economic agreements. The commercial agreements reached in the meeting reflect not only the strong economic bound between Chinese and Japanese economies but also the recovery of their political relationships. What will be the geopolitical influence on the development of the Sino-Japanese relationship? Will China and Japan explore a new path in gathering consensus and controlling conflicts among neighboring countries? Join us as we examine the Sino-Japanese relationship during the period of a rising China.

The Speakers:

 

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Shinji Yamaguchi – Senior Research Fellow at Tokyo’s Regional Studies Department of the National Institute for Defense Studies, Visiting Scholar at the George Washington University, Specialist in Chinese politics

Mike Mochizuki, pictured in professional attire

Mike M. Mochizuki – Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, Specialist in Japanese politics

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Alber Keidel – Adjunct Graduate Professor of Economics at George Washington University, Specialist in the Chinese economy

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4/10/19: The Bureaucratization of Islam in Christian Philippines: The Everyday Politics of ‘Halal’ at the National Commission on Muslim Filipino

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Wednesday April 10, 2019
12:30 PM – 1:45 PM

Chung-Wen Shih Conference Room Suite 503
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 flyer for bureaucratization of islam in christian phillipines event

With this case study in the bureaucratization of Islam in the form of the Philippine government’s National Commission on Muslim Filipinos (NCMF). Fauwaz Abdul Aziz seeks to understand the ‘everyday politics’ of NCMF bureaucrats in relation to the government and private sector’s push to promote, develop and institutionalize the country’s ‘halal’ food and non-food industry as they seek to tap into the growing domestic as well as global ‘Muslim market’. Grappling with contestations over the role of ‘ulama’ (religious scholars), the extent of personal and ‘tribal’ interests, and inequalities and marginalization, Abdul Aziz frames them within the context of the developmental, political economic and religious-cultural dynamics and contradictions of Catholic-majority Philippines. At the NCMF, ‘halal’ is the site of Muslim Filipinos’ multivalences over identity, authenticity, interests, and position in a nation-state that has yet to come to terms with the Muslim population in its midst, on the one hand, and their struggles to come to terms with the globalization and neo-liberalization of the halal industry, on the other.

 

About the Speaker:

headshot of fauwaz abdul aziz wearing glasses

Fauwaz Abdul Aziz is a PhD candidate jointly at the Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology and the Institute for Oriental Studies at Leipzig University, both in Germany. He is one of a five-member Emmy Noether Research Project which studies ‘The Bureaucratization of Islam and its Socio-Legal Dimensions in Southeast Asia’ and that is led by Dr. Dominik Müller and funded by the German Research Foundation. Since graduating with his bachelor’s degree in political science (minoring in Islamic Studies) from the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) in 2001, Fauwaz Abdul Aziz has taught secondary school history and geography, worked as a journalist for the independent Malaysiakini news organization, and served as researcher for a number of national and international development NGOs. He obtained an MA in Muslim World Issues from the Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization (ISTAC) in 2013.

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Janet Steele (Moderator) is an associate professor of journalism at the George Washington University and the director of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication. She received her Ph.D. in History from the Johns Hopkins University and focuses on how culture is communicated through the mass media. Dr. Steele is a frequent visitor to Southeast Asia where she lectures on topics ranging from the role of the press in a democratic society to specialized courses on narrative journalism.

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3/19/19: India and US: Shared Prosperity, Challenges, and Opportunities

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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

City View Room, 7th Floor
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 flyer for india and usa shared prosperity event

FICCI, in partnership with George Washington University’s Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) will host H.E. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Ambassador of India to the USA, in a Fireside Chat with Dr. Ajay Chibber, Chief Economic Advisor, FICCI & Visiting Scholar, IIEP, George Washington University.

The Ambassador will launch a FICCI Report on “Envisioning India: 2030”, an in-depth study of how India can build a competitive economy by 2030; followed by the Ambassador’s remarks on the report, as well as his views on the potential for growth in the U.S. – India bilateral relationship.

The fireside chat will be followed by a panel discussion of industry experts to discuss the competitive advantage of the U.S.-India relationship in the sectors of higher education, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure investments.

 

Panel Speakers:
Subir Gokarn, Executive Director for Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Sri Lanka, IMF; Former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India;

Sofia Mumtaz, Head of USA, Lupin Pharmaceuticals

Adrian Mutton, Founder & CEO of Sannam S4

 

Program:
H.E. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Ambassador of India to the USA, in conversation with Dr. Ajay Chhibber
10:30 AM – 11:10 AM

Discussion with the Panelists
11:10 AM – 11:45 AM

Audience Q & A
11:45 AM – 12:00 PM

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3/21/19: Crisis in Kashmir: Escalation, Opportunity or Business as Usual?

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Thursday, March 21, 2019
12:30 PM – 1:45 PM

Room 503, Chung-Wen Shih Conference Room
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 flyer for crisis in kashmir event

A month into the military confrontation between India and Pakistan in Kashmir set off by a suicide bombing killing 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force members by Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, the crisis seems to have receded—or has it?

What are the ongoing threats that might re-ignite the crisis? Are there opportunities to further diffuse the situation? What are the main forces at play in Kashmir, the region and internationally that will influence these outcomes?

The Rising Powers Initiative and the Sigur Center for Asian Studies invites you to a discussion on the crisis and its aftermath.

About the Speakers:

Deepa Ollapally, pictured in professional attire

Deepa Ollapally is directing a major research project on power and identity and the worldviews of rising and aspiring powers in Asia and Eurasia. Her research focuses on domestic foreign policy debates in India and its implications for regional security and global leadership of the U.S.

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Dr. Aqab Malik is a Fulbright visiting scholar at the Sigur Center at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. He has previously been a visiting scholar at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and is currently working on a book on the geostrategic consequences of the belt and road initiative on the global transfer of power.

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Navnita Behera is a reader in the department of political science at Delhi University, and the author of “State, Identity and Violence: Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh” (Manohar Publishers, 2000). She has been a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and has published extensively on South Asia.

Emmanuel Teitelbaum, pictured in professional attire

Emmanuel Teitelbaum is assistant professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. His research examines the political roots of class conflict and the foundations of class compromise. His articles have appeared in leading journals, including World Politics, Comparative Political Studies, Political Research Quarterly, PS: Political Science & Politics, the Journal of Development Studies and Critical Asian Studies. His forthcoming book, Managing Dissent: Government Responses to Industrial Conflict in Post-Reform South Asia, explores the dynamics of state-labor relations and industrial conflict following the implementation of neoliberal economic reforms.

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3/20/19: Japan-South Korea Relations in Crisis: Prospects for Reconciliation and Security Cooperation in East Asia

Wednesday, March 20, 2019
2:00 PM – 4:00 PM

Lindner Family Commons, 6th Floor
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 Japan-South Korea Relations in Crisis poster with Korea and Japan flag

Japan and South Korea are both democracies and allies of the United States, and they share many security and economic interests. Yet relations between these two countries have deteriorated to their worst point in recent memory. The South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling in November regarding forced labor claims has aggravated long-standing disputes about the colonial past and World War II, and the December radar lock-in incident has revealed an alarming level of mistrust between Japan and South Korea. This program will examine the causes and consequences of the current tensions between Tokyo and Seoul, assess the prospects for reconciliation, consider the future of bilateral security cooperation, and discuss the implications for U.S. interests and foreign policy.

About the Speakers:

Headshot of Celeste Arrington in professional attire

Celeste Arrington is Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at GW. She specializes in comparative politics, with a regional focus on the Koreas and Japan. Her research and teaching focus on law and social movements, the media, lawyers, policy processes, historical justice, North Korean human rights, and qualitative methods. She is also interested in the international relations and security of Northeast Asia and transnational activism. She is the author of Accidental Activists: Victims and Government Accountability in South Korea and Japan (2016) and has published in Comparative Political Studies, Law & Society Review, Journal of East Asian Studies, Pacific Affairs, Asian Survey, and the Washington Post, among others. She received a Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, an MPhil from the University of Cambridge, and an A.B. from Princeton University. She is currently writing a book that analyzes the role of lawyers and legal activism in Japanese and Korean policies related to persons with disabilities and tobacco control.

Headshot of Yuki Tatsumi in gray dress and green background

Yuki Tatsumi is Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center. Before joining Stimson, Tatsumi worked as a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and as the special assistant for political affairs at the Embassy of Japan in Washington. Tatsumi’s most recent publications include Balancing between Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament: Views from the Next Generation (ed.; Stimson Center, 2018) Lost in Translation? U.S. Defense Innovation and Northeast Asia (Stimson Center, 2017). She is also the editor of four earlier volumes of the Views from the Next Generation series: Peacebuilding and Japan (Stimson Center, 2017), Japan as a Peace Enabler (Stimson Center, 2016), Japan’s Global Diplomacy (Stimson Center, 2015), and Japan’s Foreign Policy Challenges in East Asia (Stimson Center, 2014).

Headshot of Professor Mike Mochizuki in professional attire

Mike M. Mochizuki holds the Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur at the Elliott School of International Affairs in George Washington University.  Professor Mochizuki was associate dean for academic programs at the Elliott School from 2010 to 2014 and director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies from 2001 to 2005.  He co-directs the “Rising Powers Initiative” and the “Memory and Reconciliation in the Asia-Pacific” research and policy project of the Sigur Center. Previously he was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He received his Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.  His recent books include Memory, Identity, and Commemorations of World War II: Anniversary Politics in Asia Pacific (co-editor and co-author, 2018); Energy Security in Asia and Eurasia (co-editor and co-author, 2017); Nuclear Debates in Asia: The Role of Geopolitics and Domestic Processes (co-editor and author, 2016); The Okinawa Question: Futenma, the US-Japan Alliance, and Regional Security (co-editor and author, 2013); and China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment (co-author, 2013).

Headshot of Ji Young Lee in professional attire

Ji-Young Lee is a political scientist who teaches at American University’s School of International Service. She is the author of China’s Hegemony: Four Hundred Years of East Asian Domination (Columbia University Press, 2016). Her current work concerns historical Korea-China relations with a focus on military interventions, as well as the impact of China’s rise on the U.S. alliance system in East Asia. She has published articles in Security StudiesInternational Relations of the Asia-Pacific, and Journal of East Asian Studies. Previously, she was a Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow in Politics and East Asian Studies at Oberlin College, a POSCO Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center, a non-resident James Kelly Korean Studies Fellow with the Pacific Forum CSIS, an East Asia Institute Fellow, and a Korea Foundation-Mansfield Foundation scholar of the U.S.-Korea Scholar-Policymaker Nexus program. She received her Ph.D. and M.A. from Georgetown University, an M.A. from Seoul National University, and a B.A. from Ewha Womans University in South Korea.

Headshot of Professor Jisoo Kim in professional attire

Jisoo M. Kim is Korea Foundation Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and East Asian Languages and Literatures and Director of the Institute for Korean Studies at GW. She received her Ph.D. in Korean History from Columbia University. She is a specialist in gender and legal history of early modern Korea. Her broader research interests include gender and sexuality, crime and justice, forensic medicine, literary representations of the law, history of emotions, vernacular, and gender writing. She is the author of The Emotions of Justice: Gender, Status, and Legal Performance in Chosŏn Korea (University of Washington Press, 2015), which was awarded the 2017 James Palais Prize of the Association for Asian Studies. She is also the co-editor of The Great East Asian War and the Birth of the Korean Nation by JaHyun Kim Haboush (Columbia University Press, 2016). She is currently working on a new book project titled Suspicious Deaths: Forensic Medicine, Dead Bodies, and Criminal Justice in Chosŏn Korea.

Transcription

Jisoo M. Kim:
All right, I think we’ll begin. Good afternoon. My name is Jisoo Kim. I’m the director of the GW Institute for Korean Studies and also Korea Foundation Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and East Asian Languages and Literatures. Well, thank you all for coming to our Japan-South Korea relations and crises roundtable discussion. This event is co-sponsored by the GW Institute for Korean Studies, the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Memory and Reconciliation program at GW.

Jisoo M. Kim:
I’d like to first thank Professor Mochizuki for raising the idea of having this important round table discussion. And so you know, Japan and South Korea share many security and economic interests and yet their relationship has been recently deteriorating and is not getting any better. So one of our missions, actually of the GW Institute for Korean Studies, is to diversify Korea related issues in Washington that’s being dominated by North Korea issues. So I think this is an important opportunity to get to listen to something other than North Korea.

Jisoo M. Kim:
Our panel today will focus on the causes and consequences of the current tensions between Tokyo and Seoul. And they’ll assess the prospects for reconciliation, consider the future of bilateral security cooperation, and discuss the implications for U.S. interests and foreign policy. Now, due to interest of time, because I want to give our audience more time for Q&A and a discussion, I’ll skip going through the details of our speaker’s bio. Please refer to the handout for their accomplishments and I’ll just introduce their title.

Jisoo M. Kim:
So starting with Professor Celeste Arrington, she is the Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at GW, and she will give an overview of the court rooms from the last Fall and focus on courts’ indirect effects on the historical justice movement and public memory.

Jisoo M. Kim:
And then moving on, Director Tatsumi who is the Core Director of the East Asia program and Director of the Japan program at the Stimson Center, will focus on the radar lock-on incident and implications for Japan-ROK security cooperation.

Jisoo M. Kim:
And then moving on, Professor Mike Mochizuki, who is a professor of Political Science and International Affairs here at GW, will discuss Japanese public attitudes and domestic politics of Japan’s relations with South Korea.

Jisoo M. Kim:
And then finally but not least, Professor Ji-Young Lee, who holds the C.W. Lim and Korea Foundation of Korean Studies at American University. She will contextualize attentions in broader regional terms. And this round table format will consist of two rounds of shorter remarks by each panelist. Each panelist will get about seven to eight minutes each round and we’ll have our speakers to discuss on the topic first, and then we’ll open up for a more general discussion afterwards.

Jisoo M. Kim:
So now without further ado, I’ll ask Professor Arrington to begin with her remarks.

Celeste Arrington:
Thank you very much and thank you all for coming this afternoon. So as Jisoo just mentioned, I’m going to focus on the recent court rulings as the first of two proximate causes of the current tensions in Japan-South Korea relations.

Celeste Arrington:
My research, which I also published two months ago in a journal article, has focused on the broader, or what you might call indirect or radiating, effects of this type of litigation. And so I’d like to briefly summarize the two rulings that you had in October and November of last year from the South Korean Supreme Court, and then contextualize those in the broader, more than 100 lawsuits that have dealt with alleged historical wrongdoing by the Japanese government or Japanese firms and the more than 25 rulings from higher courts.

Celeste Arrington:
Okay, so in October last year, the South Korean Supreme Court ordered that Nippon steel and Sumitomo Metal should compensate plaintiffs. This particular lawsuit started more than two decades ago in Japan. They did not receive favorable rulings in Japan and then shifted the lawsuits to South Korean courts. Only one of the plaintiffs was still living at the time of the ruling.

Celeste Arrington:
The second similar set of rulings that came out of the South Korean Supreme Court occurred in late November last year, and these were for two batches of plaintiffs. One was a set of plaintiffs who worked in Hiroshima when the U.S. dropped the atomic bomb there and the Supreme Court of South Korea had previously remanded that case to the lower courts in a landmark 2012 ruling.

Celeste Arrington:
However, the ruling last fall was the latest in a series of rulings. These plaintiffs had lost in the Japanese Supreme Court in 2007 and had shifted to filing lawsuits in the Korean courts in 2000, so they also had been fighting this case for more than two decades. The second batch of plaintiffs who received a ruling from the South Korean Supreme Court in November, were Korean women who had worked in a factory in Nagoya, in Japan, and they had first filed their lawsuit in 1998 in Japanese courts and had received a 99 Yen, or about a dollar, in pension repayments in 2009 and had shifted over time their case to Korean courts as well.

Celeste Arrington:
Needless to say, these are extraordinarily complicated and multifaceted legal disputes, as well as they’re trying to come to terms with a very complicated set of historical disputes. It is not my job nor my goal today to try to adjudicate those complicated historical or legal disputes. And so let me just briefly note also on terminology, I recognize that many Japanese sources are moving towards using the term wartime laborers rather than forced labor to refer to these claimants and these types of cases. Because forced labor is a more common term in English I’ll just use that today. It also reflects the plaintiff’s claims that they were underpaid or unpaid for their work in Japanese factories during the war.

Celeste Arrington:
So the October ruling, the first of these three rulings that came out in the fall, contains some new irritants, if you will, to Japan-Korea relations. Already in 2012, the Supreme Court in South Korea had broken important ground with a set of landmark rulings arguing that the 1965 basic treaty between Japan and South Korea did not erase individual’s rights to claim compensation. The Japanese government has disagreed with this position. The 2012 rulings from the Supreme Court also found that the Japanese Supreme Court rulings in 2007 and 2008 ran counter to the South Korean constitution and its principles.

Celeste Arrington:
So the 2012 rulings were significant, and since then more than five South Korean courts have agreed with those rulings. But the 2018 ruling added a new layer of legal reasoning to its ruling and that was that the entire Japanese colonial rule period was illegal. And there were fears that this would kind of open Pandora’s box. In essence, millions of Koreans who lived during the time of Japanese colonial rule from 1910 to 1945 might be able to bring claims against Japanese firms or the Japanese government, especially Japanese firms, in Korean courts.

Celeste Arrington:
Now this fear, that will the flood gates open to litigation for postwar compensation, has already sort of started to happen. Since the 2012 rulings that I mentioned, there are more than 16, by last count, lawsuits in depth in South Korean courts against more than 70 Japanese firms involving more than 1,300 plaintiffs.

Celeste Arrington:
In addition, the South Korean Truth Commission, regarding forced mobilization of workers, has documented that some 300 Japanese firms were involved in using such workers and more than 200,000 Koreans were forced laborers or mobilized workers. These lawsuits are also part of a broader movement for compensation from Japan and from Japanese firms. These include, probably the best known ones are the comfort women, but also Koreans who were abandoned in the Soviet Union after Japan’s defeat, often on Sakhalin Island, they include the Korean atomic bomb victims or survivors, and victims of harsh treatment of leprosy patients and other forms of forced or coerced labor.

Celeste Arrington:
As I mentioned before, there have been more than a hundred lawsuits by such claimants, including at least 25 rulings from top courts, and most of these lawsuits began in Japanese courts and then shifted to U.S. courts and Korean courts and most recently courts in the People’s Republic of China have accepted a lawsuit by Chinese forced laborers.

Celeste Arrington:
Now these legal processes have much broader political and policy implications behind just whether you get a favorable ruling or not. And my research has really focused on these broader political and sociopolitical implications. Since these rulings from last fall, however, we’ve seen an escalation in tensions, or a worsening of relations between Japan and South Korea. And these included Prime Minister Abe of Japan decrying the rulings and telling the firms not to obey the rulings. Meanwhile, South Korean courts had moved towards freezing and seizing the company’s assets if they don’t agree to pay compensation. And in return, the Japanese government has threatened to halt money transfers, deny visas, and impose tariffs on Korean firms.

Celeste Arrington:
On the Korean side, meanwhile, these cases are embroiled in a very politically significant judicial scandal which relates to the previous president who was impeached in 2017, Park Geun-hye. So the Chief Justice of the South Korean Supreme Court Yang Sung-tae, has been accused of delaying rulings in these forced labor lawsuits in exchange for budgets and other political favors for the court system from former president Park Geun-hye.

Celeste Arrington:
In addition, the former foreign minister used to work for the law firm that represented the Japanese firms on the task force to deal with claims related to forced labor and the former Japanese ambassador used to advise one of the firms that’s been ordered to pay compensation most recently. In addition, if you want to make it even more complicated, the current president of South Korea used to work for a firm that represented forced laborers.

Celeste Arrington:
Now, as I mentioned, I’m not going to try to adjudicate these complex and historical legal disputes, but when we come back around to me in a couple minutes, what I’d like to emphasize is that these lawsuits on the one hand show you that litigation is a hollow hope. It’s very difficult to achieve justice for the plaintiffs or to compensation as I mentioned, almost all of the plaintiffs in the one case have died. On the other hand, these lawsuits are part of a global shift towards more historical and transitional justice and with the rise of human rights which are fundamentally built on individual rights, you have seen a shift away from government to government settlements and towards more individual rights claiming. And so this is part of the broader transnational trend.

Celeste Arrington:
And finally I would like to, when we come back to me, discuss how these lawsuits give us lots of examples of how the litigation process itself can actually have a lot of positive effects even though it is one of the most contentious and adversarial parts of the interaction between Japanese and Korean. And with that I’m going to turn it over. So hopefully that was a teaser for my next segment. Thank you.

Yuki Tatsumi:
Thank you Celeste. Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for having me. This is a little bit of a sensitive topic [inaudible 00:13:58] kind of been away game here, but I’ll do my best. So I was asked to address the specifics of the Fire Control Radar Lock-on Incident. However, what I’m going to try to do is, I think I will follow Celeste in the sense that I will not try to adjudicate this case here, because the truth of the matter is that this is, interestingly enough and then I’ll come back to this point toward the end of this round of remarks, cases still remains as very much of a he said, she said.

Yuki Tatsumi:
So rough timeline is that in December 2018 Japanese minister of defense, issued an announcement that its Maritime Self-Defense Forces, a surveillance aircraft, was painted by the fighter control radar by the South Korean Navy destroyer. And the Japan minister of defense also claimed that the particular aircraft that was painted by this radar tried to communicate with the vessel using three different radio frequencies and got no return.

Yuki Tatsumi:
And on the other hand, ROK Navy’s response or ROK Ministry of National Defense response and counter response to that was this particular destroyer was in that water for humanitarian rescue mission and it was actually Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces P3C that really did the overflight at dangerously low altitude. And basically, they blamed each other for the risky behavior of each other’s Navy assets. That was followed by both sides releasing video footage that both ministry recorded and they tried to resolve this by meeting at the working level a couple of times, but then as of 21st of January this year, both sides have not met, at least in a publicly announced way, to discuss this matter further.

Yuki Tatsumi:
So Japan’s tabling its case and ROK tabling its case and the case kind of stayed that way. So if you go to both the Japanese Ministry of Defense website and then the Korean Ministry of National Defense website, you can read each side’s claim in terms of why their stance is justified. Rather than try to adjudicate this case, what I would like to highlight is how this tension escalated into a public, almost a PR, warfare between Japan and ROK on their defense establishment and their failure to resolve this quietly and their continuing failure to resolve this issue to this day.

Yuki Tatsumi:
And this is actually, I would argue, that it’s a symptom of the current dysfunctional state of the Japan-ROK relations and it actually shows how grave it is that the level of disconnect between the two countries has become. Because as we all know, political relationship between the two governments can be tenuous. Both the countries see some positive periods, but then both governments also have seen negative periods.

Yuki Tatsumi:
But throughout those political upwards and downwards of the relationship between the two countries, there are two underlying sectors of the society or the country that really supported this bilateral relationship at the foundational level. One is business community and the other one was defense. As a solicitor explained to us in detail, the court ruling on the forced labor issue and the following order for freezing assets and seizing assets of the Japanese corporation, really put the cold water onto one of those legs, which is business-to-business relationship. And now the failure of both sides to resolve this Fire Control Radar Lock-on Incident really puts the question, perhaps now that the other side of the leg, which is defense relations begin to be negatively affected by the current political tensions between the two governments.

Yuki Tatsumi:
And if you think about where the shared security interest between the two countries, it actually is quite worrisome that these foundational relationships seem to have been damaged. And I still don’t know to what degree it is irreparable. But I would just highlight that this particular incident does not demonstrate the cause of the disconnect, but rather really shows the symptom and the gravity and the degree of the dysfunctionality of the two governments at this point. So I’ll wrap it up on this round on that and then I’ll pass it on to Mike.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Thank you. Let me just first say that over the last 30 years, as a scholar and analyst of international politics in Northeast Asia and Japanese foreign policy, and watching the problems and the fluctuations in Japan-South Korea relations, has been one of the most painful professional aspects of my career. And so I’ve struggled over the last couple of decades to try to understand what’s at the root of this. And the conclusion that I’ve come to is that it really has to do with the domestic politics of both countries. And although both countries are democracies, they are very different kinds of democracies. But I would like to emphasize that one of the reasons why I feel such pain about this, is that I, don’t for a moment, think that the peoples of Japan and the peoples of South Korea are locked in a permanent state of historical animosity.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
And, in fact, public opinion polls suggest otherwise. So you would think because of the South Korean narrative that focuses on the victimization as a result of Japanese colonial policies, you would think that South Koreans would harbor across-the-board negative views towards Japan. But polling data suggests that over the last decade or so, there has been a gradual improvement in the perspective of South Koreans towards Japan. And so, one organization that you may know of, Genron NPO, has been taking surveys every year since 2012. Unfortunately, we don’t have data before then. But over the last five years, the percentage of South Koreans who have a bad impression of Japanese have declined from 76% to 50% and then there has been an increase from 12% to about 28% in the last year of those who hold positive feelings towards Japan. Now still, you know, there’s a lot more that South Korean views of Japan need to improve, but it shows that they’re not necessarily locked in this animosity.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
The other, and this is what I really want to focus on, is the fluctuations in the Japanese side. And what is remarkable about the last few months is, according to one media organization, 77% of the Japanese do not trust South Korea. But what’s painful about this is that ever since the 1998 Obuchi-Kim summit and the joint declaration, there has been a gradual improvement in the affinity of Japanese towards South Koreans.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
And then after Prime Minister Koizumi retired and the visits to Yasukuni Shrine stopped for awhile, then over 60% of the Japanese began to hold very favorable or somewhat favorable views towards South Korea. This is compared to the late 1970s and early 1980s when fewer Japanese had an affinity towards Korea than to China. Now what does this show? Well, it shows that it’s not just kind of the social and cultural exchanges and the importance of the so-called Korea Wave, and I think that that has really fostered a sense of affinity, but it’s also the hard work that political leaders of both countries did in order to try to deescalate and address some of the historical questions.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
And where there has been a precipitous drop in Japanese affinity towards South Korea took place in 2012 after the visit of President Lee to Dokdo/Takeshima, but also when he stated that the Japanese emperor needed to apologize to Koreans who worked for independence.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Now from the point of view of South Koreans, of course, this is maybe widely accepted, but I think from the Japanese point of view, there is a sense that despite the cultural and social affinity that they may feel towards Korea, it is the persistent criticism on historical issues that leads to the negative impression. But kind of as a teaser, I would say that there is also responsibility on the Japanese side. And I would say that it’s because the dominant narrative about Japan’s colonial past vis-à-vis Korea has been a conservative narrative, which diverges fundamentally from the narrative that has emerged in South Korea in the wake of democratization. And unless that narrative in Japan changes, I don’t think that this issue will be resolved.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Now just to suggest to that that narrative is not permanent, is that there are some in the Japanese political class that have a different viewpoint and it’s during those times that relations between the two countries improved. So this was when Prime Minister Hosokawa gave a detailed, spontaneous apology to the president of South Korea. That’s when Prime Minister Hatoyama said that the DPJ government is powerful enough, strong enough to face history squarely. It’s when Prime Minister Kaun at the time of a potentially contentious year, the hundredth anniversary of Japan’s annexation of Korea, that he issued a very unequivocal apology towards South Korea. So you do have this alternative narrative, but unfortunately for reasons of domestic politics, that narrative is sublimated and the dominant conservative narrative, which is diametrically opposed to the progressive narrative of South Korea, is dominant in Japan, and that, I think, is at the root of the problem.

Speaker 1:
Thank you so much to the organizers and everyone for being here. I can think up probably three main drivers for South Korea-Japan relations that may explain why the two countries are experiencing this high level of tension today more than ever.

Speaker 1:
One is South Korea and Japan’s strategic interest towards China do not converge. Probably may be fair to say that, comparatively speaking, Japan seems to have a clearer idea as to how to deal with China, whereas South Korea is much more hesitant in spelling out what its South China policy should be.

Speaker 1:
Two, in the past it has been North Korea’s propagation and the policy coordination that brought the two countries together in the midst of all these ups and downs in the last probably 20 years or so. But that link actually has gotten much weaker.

Speaker 1:
Three, history issues and domestic politics do not go away. But more than ever, I think that the collapse of earlier agreements on history issues actually has increased the level of mistrust on the part of Japan for South Korea and these failures actually make it more difficult politically to pursue anything new.

Speaker 1:
So today, where the two countries are now, in a sense, is a product of past efforts that ended in failure that fuels a lot of frustrations. From South Korea’s perspective, you have an administration whose priority is on inter-Korean reconciliation. If you think about this policy and its objectives, it actually has an implication for US-South Korea Alliance relationship, but also South Korea’s relations with Japan.

Speaker 1:
So let me actually go into each of these points briefly before talking about some of the consequences that I could on the people.

Speaker 1:
The first on the rise of China question. As long as the United States… If South Korea or the two countries wanting to develop stronger security partnership, this is the issue they could have actually developed further strengthening of their relationship. But it actually has not happened.

Speaker 1:
My understanding is that when Prime Minister Abe, he initially was very interested in working together with South Korea than the Pak Geun-hye administration. But it is no longer the case. If you think about the Obama administration’s Pivot to Asia policy, it in fact rested on this idea or the expectation of strengthening that security partnership in the far part type relationship between Tokyo and Seoul. But we all know that did not actually go very well. When I think about this South Korea-Japan relations and these expectations from the policymakers that expect Seoul and Tokyo should get along because they are democracies and they have a rise in China and threats from North Korea. But I think it is important that we do not assume that South Korea’s strategic hold towards a rising China is in fact naturally converged with those of Japan.

Speaker 1:
I actually happened to study the diplomatic history of the three countries: China, Korea, and Japan. I’m not necessarily making any direct implication or application, but they actually have been neighbors for probably 2000 years and China actually has always been, part of the 19th century, the sole great power. Not once Japan and Korea came together to form an alliance even when they both felt threatened by… I mean there are a lot of reasons, but I thought it was interesting that… I think there’s something about geography where Korea has to worry a lot more about China than Japan even in this age of advanced technologies. South Korea is actually more vulnerable to Japan if things seem to go wrong in terms of their economic relations with China… So in that sense…

Speaker 1:
Strategically, I think in the minds of any South Korean leader, they understand that if they’re thinking about the future of Korean Peninsula towards unification, they know that they have to be at least in good terms with Beijing in order to be able to proceed with unification. So what this means is that, compared to Japan…I am not advocating South Korean position. I was asked to be talking a little more about South Korea, thus I am talking about South Korea. I actually think it’s much more difficult for South Korea to join any correlation against Beijing, even if it’s led by the United States. I think the South Korea’s initial hesitation towards the US missile defense system, the deployment of THAAD in South Korea actually is a case in point. Second, on the North Korea question, we all know that this is not the first time that South Korea and Japan have been fighting and they’re not getting along.

Speaker 1:
I see some pattern in the bilateral relations. When there is a new leader elected in office, there’s going to be some kind of promise towards a future and good relations and there’s going to be some kind of deadline related to history issue. The publication of Japan’s defense white paper where the book describes Dokdo/Takeshima Island as Japanese territory then South Koreans get upset and things start to go downhill. There’s the deadline for [inaudible 00:6:30] and comfort women issue. There are many deadlines that they actually had been going downhill, but if there’s one issue that actually kept their relations at certain level is their common united approach towards North Korea, the strong deterrence.

Speaker 1:
These especially under the conservative government in South Korea, say for example, the Lee Myung-bak government, after the 2010 Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incident, Japan immediately stood to support South Korean position and that actually mattered. But Trump’s deterrence position in the context of US, Japan, South Korea deterrence; that is actually very different today, right? US presidents held two summit meetings with North Korean leader and South Korean’s president’s priority is inter-Korean relations. So you actually have a lot more moving parts, meaning that the link that used to bring together the two is actually gone. Third, the history issue. I can talk about this a little more at a later point, but it’s no secret that history issue is linked to domestic politics. But I think that the problem is that for the Moon Jae-in government in South Korea, there’s very little political incentive for the current administration to work towards improving relations with Japan for domestic political reasons. I was told that I am over time, so I will stop here. Thank you.

Speaker 2:
All right. Thank you. So a lot of food for thought. I’m going to delve back into the traditional realm and try to relate it back to Ji-Young’s last comment about Moon Jae-in administrations incentive structure. So as I mentioned, I recently published sort of a meta-study of the last two to three decades of litigation against Japanese firms or the Japanese government in Japanese, US, and South Korean courts and tried to take stock. Most these cases have resulted in rulings that were unfavorable to plaintiffs. But what have been the broader implications or consequences of this wave of litigation, which has diversified. It’s not just about damages and tort claims or state compensation claims, but also now includes defamation, lawsuits, and trying to recoup pension payments or unpaid wages. In the law and society and literature here in the U.S., there’s a broad set of studies that look at the indirect effects of the litigation process.

Speaker 2:
So de-center the courts, don’t just focus on what the courts say because courts are polyvocal. They send many different messages and how those messages are received and interpreted affects the ultimate impact that they have on politics and on society. Drawing on this literature, I’ve come up with a very long list of 20 different mechanisms that you see at work in these lawsuits. I will not talk to you about all of them, but let me highlight three. So the first is that the litigation process has led to cognitive shifts in Korean survivors of the colonial period. And that is that they’re increasingly aware of their rights and different ways that the options that they have for trying to reclaim their rights or try to seek justice. This has led to a growing sense of political efficacy among survivors of that time period.

Speaker 2:
It’s been supported by concentric circles of lawyers who have formed dense networks across the different types of alleged victims of Japanese alleged wrongdoing. Then around those lawyers are also a different support groups and these support groups are in Korea as well as in Japan. And here is where you see a different picture from the bottom up than what Mike was just describing about a dominant conservative historical narrative in Japan. This is also where you see lots of cross national court cooperation. So the bar associations of both countries have hosted commissions to try to deal with the history issue. There are scholarly commissions and they’re just ordinary scholars or ordinary concerned Japanese and Korean citizens who have formed lots of local networks to try to uncover documentation about what happened to try to support the plaintiffs. So this includes things like collecting money to book hotels or rent buses to drive the plaintiffs from the airport to the courtrooms or to show up in court and show the support for the plaintiffs and Japanese courts, for example.

Speaker 2:
These networks of people have contributed to the cognitive shift and helped build a dense network of movement infrastructure that has helped sustain this wave of lawsuits as diverse as they are.

Speaker 2:
The second mechanism that I want to highlight here is that this wave of litigation has transformed public perceptions of the past. This has occurred in a variety of different ways. So on the one hand, the litigation process, especially when the defendants deny liability, this is really good media story. It’s very dramatic. It’s very tense. It highlights the drama of the dispute and can lead to worsening mutual perceptions, as Mike was describing in the polling. At the same time, the media coverage has also highlighted the personal stories of the plaintiffs. For many of them, they’re speaking out for the first time. For some of them, they have visible scars that they could show in public seminars across Japan. That is humanizing the issue of this dark past. Media likes drama, but they also like human stories, good human interest stories. So this is another dimension that is increasing media coverage of these lawsuits.

Speaker 2:
In addition, the court process itself, there’s no discovery per se like in the US and Japanese or Korean courts, but the broader movements and in the court process, a number of documents or archives have been revealed that have contributed to information about what happened in the past.

Speaker 2:
This is a little bit of a stretch of a comparison, but you might take a look at the US tobacco lawsuits. So I happened to be also researching tobacco right now, so this is why I’m going to be talking about this. I mean, there were more than 700 lawsuits against tobacco companies here in the US and one favorable ruling. But nevertheless, these lawsuits dramatically shifted public perception of smoking and of the tobacco companies over time. There’s a rich literature on this shift. Here the information revealed in a court process, the settlements, the plaintiffs and their lawyers concerted strategic effort to generate publicity and to reveal the ills of smoking, for example, can be compared to the really deliberate movement effort to portray an alternative narrative about what happened in the past.

Speaker 2:
So as I mentioned courts are polyvocal and as these movements built and courts gave them standing or recognize the plaintiff standing to bring these cases to courts, they became sources for media coverage and have gradually helped shift public perceptions, not just in Japan and Korea, but if you’re looking at New York Times editorials, for example, you also see a shift in the perception of this past.

Speaker 2:
Then finally the… Well, let me just mention one more thing here before I go into the final thing. That is that these lawsuits have provided political cover for Korean National Assembly members to tackle issues that used to be too hot, too controversial to tackle. That includes setting up a truth commission about forced labor in 2004 and passing legislation to provide financial assistance to force laborers in 2007. Okay, so these issues have gotten on the political agenda in South Korea in a way that they might’ve been too sensitive previously, thanks to the court cases.

Speaker 2:
Then finally here are these highly adversarial court disputes have been sites of cross-national and interpersonal reconciliation at the grassroots level. Here, many of the attorneys from Japan, if you have a court case in Japan, you have to have Japanese attorneys, have also personally apologized for their country’s wrongdoing in the past.

Speaker 2:
So as you might guess, many of them are of a leftist leaning, not all of them by any stretch of the imagination. In addition, hundreds of Japanese supporters, if not thousands, have embodied an alternative narrative to the one that Mike was describing, this conservative dominant narrative.

Speaker 2:
In the polls that Mike cited, some 80% of South Koreans do not trust Prime Minister Abe. Okay, so this is a different narrative from that. The plaintiffs, when they interact with Japanese lawyers and with Japanese supporters, experience that there is a diversity of views in Japan on the question of what happened in the past. The friendships that they form as well as the shared new identity as part of a group working towards a shared goal, so social psychologists will tell you that these will help to sustain activism and in addition, this provides a forum, I guess, for interpersonal reconciliation that’s not occurring at the government-to-government level.

Yuki Tatsumi:
Great. Thank you. Picking up on where I left off and I think I would like to pick up on Ji-Young’s excellent point about the North Korea has been the kind of link between the Japan and ROK. But then not the two countries but including the US and when it comes to its defense relations. This oftentimes is not very obvious, but if something does go wrong on Korean peninsula, defense of South Korea is not sustainable without support coming through the US forces facilities in Japan and the Japan self-defense forces providing assistance to US forces to facilitate those movements. There was a fundamental understanding amongst the defense community, so of all three countries on that and I think that really helped to kind of hold up the relationship even at times where political tensions are quite high in the past.

Yuki Tatsumi:
But as Ji-Young mentioned, when the different dynamic starts rolling surrounding North Korea, denuclearization of North Korea, and the future of the Korean peninsula and especially when we have a US president who talks about if the host country doesn’t pay 100% cost plus 50, he would seriously consider bringing everybody home and including this forces in Korea. This kind of puts a very different calculation in the minds of the South Korean leaders. But then also I would argue it also put a slightly different calculation in Japanese leaders’ view. They’re much more conscious about their own national interests as opposed to their shared interests. That could lead to the change in the traditional pattern that we’ve seen about a stabilizing effect of the defense relations that has had in the past. Another point that I would like to pick up, because both Mike and Ji-Young highlighted and I do agree, is this really intricate link between the historical issues between two countries and the domestic politics of the two countries.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I’m sure Mike will probably elaborate into this or Ji-Young would. But I can point to two factors that kind of causing this divergence of narratives between the two countries when it comes to history.

Yuki Tatsumi:
One is the collapse of the left in Japan after the Cold War. Up until that point and I would say, Prime Minister Obuchi and the political leaders of that generation are still very much of the product of that era where they really were competing ideological narratives about Japan’s past, present, and future. But since the end of the Cold War that left collapsed in every sense of the word. So that gradually shifted the political, I guess, mass within Japanese politics gradually toward the right. I would still argue Prime Minister Abe and perhaps some of his supporters, may be a little bit more further right than the rest of his colleagues in his own party. But nonetheless, this gradual shift of this political mass consensus toward the conservative realm without any competing ideological narratives about Japan’s own past, present, and future, I think, is one factor that I could point to. But then another point of reference that I would always look at is democratization of South Korea.

Yuki Tatsumi:
So as I talked about this, a gradual shift from the government-to-government settlement to more of a personal levels resolution of this historical and other grievances. Japan’s traditional position, which still remains the same today, is that all the historical issues during the colonial era, during the wartime vis-à-vis Republic of Korea, has been addressed with that Basic Agreement. But the Basic Agreement was signed by a military dictatorship in South Korea. So when Seoul began to go through this amazing democratization, a lot of questions were start being asked about the political judgment and a policy decisions from that era. Then I think that definitely contributes to the emergence of a very vibrant, different narratives in South Korea, when on the other side of the sea of Japan, political consensus in Japan in a narrative consensus of Japan is past, present and future is gradually shifting toward right, without anything pulling back toward the left side of the ideology. So I would just stop at that.

Speaker 4:
Great. Well thanks Yuki for that. Because I essentially agree with your analysis, but I would probably offer a friendly amendment. It’s not just the collapse of the left in the wake of the Cold War. In fact, in a sense the reorganization or reconfiguration of Japanese party politics in my mind opened up a real promise of a breakthrough. So if one thinks about developments like the Murayama statement, the way Prime Minister Hatoyama, tried to promote an East Asian community. The way Prime Minister Khan addressed, frontally, the issue of Japan’s colonial past, the collapse of the old left and the rise of what I would see as a center-left of force opened up a possibility, an opportunity to break out of the problems of the old narrative. So, my friendly amendment would be, it’s not just the collapse of the old left, but the failure and the collapse of the center left and the disintegration and the failure of the DPJ government.

Speaker 4:
I mean the first two years of the DPJ government were very positive. But then in the [Noula 00:24:13] administration, and especially in the wake of president Lee’s visit to talk to Dokdo/Takeshima and to call for an imperial apology. I mean, that changed things. The other is, I would say, the weakening of the liberal wing of the liberal democratic party. So those things also contributed to that. Now, of course there are certain exceptions. For example, prime minister Nakasone after becoming prime minister, I think one of his first visits was, overseas visits, was Seoul and he fired his education minister and apologized for the inflammatory view of history that education minister… I’m trying to remember his name. [Fujio 00:25:06]-

Yuki Tatsumi:
[Fujio Kamari 00:00:25:07]?

Speaker 4:
Yeah.

Yuki Tatsumi:
[Fujio Ka 00:25:10] ?

Speaker 4:
Yeah. Well not [Fujio Ka 00:25:12], but… I’m showing my age… But and apologized. The reason for this is that he had a clear strategic sense and about the importance of Japan-South Korean relations.

Speaker 4:
It’s also in the context of a security environment that forced or compelled Nakasone’s son to move in that direction. Now unfortunately, I would say under the Abe administration, he does have a good strategic sense in terms of strengthening the US-Japan Alliance and putting forth the free and open Indo-Pacific vision onto stabilizing the relationship with China. Those are all great things that I applaud. But on Korea, I think he is non-strategic. Some people have talked about Japan has a policy of benign neglect. But I was reminded by a good Japanese friend today that it’s not a benign neglect. It’s hostile neglect. That’s, I think, one of the problems. But also fundamental is the divergence in the nature of democracies between South Korea and Japan.

Speaker 4:
I mean when we talk about the democratic peace theory, we seem to kind of dump all the democracies in kind of one basket. But there’s a lot of variation in terms of democratic development and democratic institutions. I would say, in addition to the big difference, which is in South Korea politics are very personalized, the parties are not well institutionalized. Then there has been changes between conservatives and progressives and it’s not the history issue, but it’s the sense of social injustice vis-à-vis the old authoritarian regime that gets linked up to the history issue that becomes such a problem issue in Japan-South Korean relations. Whereas, in the Japanese side, it’s basically, except for a few short episodes, the predominance of the liberal democratic party. But beyond that, I think it’s the history of democratic development. In South Korea, you could say that democracy was won by civil society and the anti-authoritarian movement.

Speaker 4:
So it was something that was seized and from there they wanted to right the wrongs domestically. Whereas in Japan, although there were of course many pro-democratic movements in its history, at the end of the day, it was democracy from above. So given that I think there is a fundamentally different political culture in the context of democracy. Whereas in Korea, the fundamental kind of value that’s drives democratic politics is the search quest for social justice. Whereas in the Japanese one, it’s the kind of the emphasis on procedural democracy and the maintenance of political order. I think that if there is a kind of a domestic structural reason beyond the history narratives of why these things are processed in such a way that is hard for the other country to understand what’s going on is because of that divergence.

Speaker 4:
Now finally, I don’t want to adjudicate this, but I think we have a responsibility also to think about how we can address this problem because if this continues for a long time then they could really have a permanent effect.

Speaker 4:
I remember reading in Asahi Shimbun in early December a report that a former Korean ambassador to Japan had a proposal which was to basically create a foundation that would consist of the South Korean government, the Japanese firms implicated in the abuse of conscripted labors, but also the Korean companies that benefited from the 1965 settlement. I thought this is a great idea. But then in January, I think a spokesperson for the Blue House said this is a ridiculous idea. Which these we do think that Ji-Young is right, that maybe the Blue House really does not want to deal with this issue. So I think one possibility of a way out might be to build on that, what I thought was a wise proposal, and maybe what’s lacking is the role of the Japanese government. I understand the Japanese government may not want to get involved in providing payments to conscripted laborers because of 1965, but the Abe statement of August 14, 2015 says, he doesn’t want future generations to keep apologizing. But then he says there’s an obligation, a responsibility to pass on to the future generation and understanding of history.

Speaker 4:
So one way that the Japanese government could participate in such a fund is to contribute to an institution that would encourage the education and research about the colonial past. I think that that’s one plausible way. I know right now given the tense relationship between Tokyo and Seoul, it may be hard, but that’s one possibility. Now finally, some might say, “Well, Japan has dealt with the issues of World War II. This is about Japan’s colonial past”. Other countries haven’t done very much about that. But I would say that we are now coming to a moment where other countries, European countries, whether it’s recently France and the president of France, kind of acknowledging the torture in Algeria or the debate about how the British deal with some of the atrocities committed in India. That the time is coming to address the colonial past, not just the atrocities during World War II.

Ji-Young Lee:
Thank you. Building on our co-panelist’s comments. I would like to talk a little bit about this question of why is it that South Korea is so, I don’t know if you – let’s put it in a diplomatic term – feel very strongly about these historical issues and about Japan. And before I actually get to do that, I wanted to point out, when I pressed them for a price, and Bob called for an apology from the emperor, even the South Korean media, I believe it was editorial from Chosun Ilbo, they usually follow the dominant conservative narrative and Chosun Ilbo even thought that the president, he went too far. Just to put it out there. When we think about the South Korean position on these various historical issues, we tend to think of this in terms of South Korean identity that led them to behave the way that they do.

Ji-Young Lee:
But then in terms of consequences of these disputes that we are witnessing today, I am concerned about actually what Mike was talking about — this narrative and also the public opinion. I’m worried that the hardening of image of the other in the minds of many public peoples of South Korea and Japan. So I have a paper that I co-authored with one of our PhD students basically trying to understand the link between these historical character issues and South Korean identity. Particularly with reference to Dokdo/Takeshima Island issue. So we looked at education. We looked at all the high school history textbooks, about seven or eight, that are being used in South Korea. And then we also looked at civil society NGO groups. And then we also looked at the media recording about the bilateral relations. And what we found out is that over the years, in recent years, typically we think of South Korean identity, being responsible for South Korean reaction to Japan, but what has happened in terms of the disputes.

Ji-Young Lee:
What we found out is that, in fact, these disputes and how these actors respond to these disputes are actually reproducing South Korean identity linking, say Dokdo/Takeshima Island issue to South Korean sense of patriotism. This may not actually be new, but when we looked at how it has become much more prevalent to see everyday symbols in South Korea. So you have a t-shirt that says “I love Dokto,” and then of course the song “Dokto is Our Land” is legendary. Any South Korean who grew up in South Korea will hear that. If you actually take a look at the lyrics, it’s like phew… those are not the things that’s going to go on an academic publication.

Ji-Young Lee:
So just briefly, when we look at high school history textbooks, in fact, Dokdo/Takeshima was the one that received most attention of all the historical and territorial issues. And then the message that comes from the narrative analysis is that they will talk about this fisherman in Chosun Dynasty that went to protest against the Japanese authorities about the Japanese ship…What was the exact story? …violating Korean sovereignty. And basically the message that the high school students are getting is that you have to protest when infringe upon sovereignty is going to take place. And then, some of the keywords and narratives that come out of this historical textbooks are actually quite similar to what we will hear in media. And second, when we analyze the media, the dominant framing that their reports on Japan is based on is that conflict framing. Basically when Japan does wonderful things, it doesn’t really get a lot of attention in news media, but when someone has to say some provocative things about historical issues. Someone was likening the comfort woman issues to college cafeteria. Things like that.

Ji-Young Lee:
Those negative stories that are very provocative receives most attention. And these are actually real documented in media studies as well. And then civil society, there are at least five major NGOs that are dedicated to promote South Korean position amongst the South Korean public, so the message is almost becoming like if you are a good South Korean, your loyalty to the state comes from your support for the South Korean position on this Dokdo/Takeshima Island. So these are actually, I think most of it actually comes from this social justice. Since that we’re not being fair, we’re done and we have to do something about it. But at the same time these are worrisome because this reproduces that identity or South Korean patriotism that sets up Japan as “the other”. So there has to be, again, narrative that counters these narratives.

Ji-Young Lee:
And it was interesting to note that when they think about South Korean position towards these territorial historical issues, we tend to think of South Korea as one actor. But we noted that it was in fact, the civil society and the bottom-up that criticized the South Korean government’s position for being weak, and the civil society, they were the one who were much more, in a sense, aggressive in promoting the South Korean position. And there’s a lot of popular culture around these things, and a very popular South Korean singer… I thought it was interesting… He would actually publish an advertisement in New York Times to promote South Korean position. So all these little cultural product and culture phenomena has been ingrained and kind of embraced in this Japan-South Korea relations. We somehow need to find a way to shift the narratives. So in my own way, whenever I try and write about Japan, its relations with South Korea and elsewhere, it’s one thing to intellectually criticize things that we believe do not create value, but it’s quite another that we actually have to be fair. You have to be balanced in terms of reporting and writing about the relations. I’ll stop here.

Jisoo M. Kim:
Thank you so much for sharing your insights. I really learned a lot about this issue – important Japan and South Korea relations in crisis. Is it? It doesn’t… We don’t have to think that it’s a crisis for long, but I think, for me, there are four major common things that I found, and based on our speaker’s remarks today, and one is domestic politics and second is well, different historical narratives, not just between Japan and South Korea, but within South Korea, between progressives and conservatives. And then third, North Korean factor, and then fourth I guess divergent democracies. I think these are all extremely, extremely important issues. For me as a historian, I think this having different historical narratives. I mean, any country there should be or we do have different historical narratives and these are all constructed, but I think this is one of the things that would be most challenging, things to sort of reconcile between the two countries. Okay. Without further ado, I think I’ll open the floor. Please identify yourself before you ask your questions or else [inaudible 00:09:14].

Munahito Nakatani:
Thank you for your talks. I am Munahito Nakatani from; I’m a grad student from Georgetown University. My question is mainly directed to Professor Mochizuki. At the end of your talk, you were mentioning about the proposal for a foundation, which reminded me of the 2015 agreement between the Park administration and the Abe administration about establishing the foundation on the comfort women issue. At that time I was also surprised that a conservative government would agree to that kind of accord. So how would you analyze that event and also the breakdown event recently. And also if any reconciliatory actions were to occur further on, I guess, a sense from a Japanese point of view is that, I guess, a sense of mistrust towards South Koreans would be that these agreements would not be sustainable. So how could both Japan and South Korea strive to make these kinds of reconciliatory efforts sustainable? Thank you.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
I remember, I believe it was in January 2016 that there was a conference at the Wilson Center, and we dissected that agreement. And I remembered then that I was very skeptical that this agreement would stick. And the argument that I made for this, there were many flaws with that agreement. I admire the effort of the diplomats on both sides who worked hard to iron this out despite the major divide because, I remember, 18 months before that there was very little will for that. And so I don’t want to diminish the work and the achievement, but I think it was fundamentally flawed.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
And one is that it was clear that for this agreement to stick, it had to get the support, the public support of the major civil society umbrella organization that was representing some of the comfort women survivors, not all, but some of the comfort women survivors. And when the issue of the statue of the young girl at the Japanese embassy and so became such a prominent part of that agreement, I thought that this would make it very hard for the Korean Council to accept. On top of that, the major problem and around the comfort women issue was Mr. Abe’s attitude towards the Kono statement and him being one of the leaders of a movement to try to overturn the Kono statement. And I thought that was a terrible move. And so for this agreement to actually do the work that it was supposed to do to promote reconciliation in South Korea, I’ve always thought it was Prime Minister Abe who needed to be in front of the public expressing his apology, but it was two foreign ministers who did this. There was no kind of follow-up in terms of a personal letter of apology from the prime minister. I think that limited things.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
And then the other is that, and this is where I have, major disagreements with some of my friends in Japan. When they asked, “Well, when is this over? How many times we have to apologize? What is the compensation?” and then, “When can we close the books?” And I never believed that the process of reconciliation can be approached in that fashion. It is an ongoing process to build a trust based on empathy. And a key part of this is remembrance and education. And that’s the part that is missing: the acknowledgement of remembrance and education. And I was elated that Prime Minister Abe included that in his very ambiguous statement on August 14th, 2015, but unfortunately, I see no effort by the Japanese government to go and promote that.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
I think it would have been great to have kept the Asian Women’s Fund going at full throttle so that scholars could study the issue, exchange views because this is a very complicated history. And so when I talk about this revised proposal to deal with this latest issue of conscripted labor, it’s not just about an apology or a compensation, but it’s really doing historical research, disentangling the complexity of this to the point that the people of South Korea and Japan could have a shared history and that the debates will not be between South Koreans and Japanese, but it will be debates that will cross cut countries. And this is the fundamental problem, which I think Japanese elites have not focused on.

Patrick Park:
Patrick Park with the Voice of America. I guess my question is directed to Professor Mochizuki again. How does the strained relationship between these two countries affect the U.S. interest and security in the region, especially in regards to the denuclearization of North Korea?

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Well, I think it affects U.S. strategic interest, and I hope others will chime in on this because I certainly don’t have the wisdom on this. I think if we are going to deal with denuclearization in North Korea, and I’m very critical of what has happened over the last a few weeks and the way the Trump administration dealt with the Hanoi Summit. But having said that, I think the best possibility to move North Korea in a direction that we want is for there to be very close cooperation between Japan, South Korea, and the United States. So I think that that’s fundamental. And then when one looks into the future, then I think it’s in America’s interest that the Japanese and the South Koreans develop a sense of mutual trust and close cooperation. Now, I think the Obama administration had a very skillful light touch in promoting this. I’m somewhat skeptical of whether the current U.S. Administration can address this in such a skillful fashion, but I think the need to do it this time is even greater than it was during the Obama administration.

Yuki Tatsumi:
And let me actually add onto that. Throughout this descent of the Japan-ROK relations for the last 12-18 months, what you notice is a notable absence of a U.S. in terms of the U.S. has never been active in terms of mediating the two, but U.S. has been the forcing function, the presence of the U.S. And U.S. keeps saying we need three of us to work together to promote denuclearization of North Korea oftentimes has worked as a forcing function for Japan and ROK to come together and have a practical dialogues about how to address this security challenge. And in all practicality if we are serious about denuclearizing North Korea, Japan would have to come into play financial systems wise, technical systems wise. Japan’s role will be important over the long term, but the notable absence of the U.S. not only that very bilateral alliance management approach that this administration has been taking is I would say indirectly affecting or impeding the… Dis-incentivizing Tokyo and Seoul to work together or try to reconcile some of those disagreements.

Speaker 8:
Thank you very much [inaudible 00:19:07] Let me ask a very simple, hypothetical or challenging and fact check question. Suppose a situation where some emergency happens in the Korean Peninsula. The United States wants Japanese [inaudible 00:19:22] to be involved, but the packing system, it should come with the [inaudible 00:19:30] which correlates a lot. Saying that this is an eager requirement and to the morale of the soldiers to import, but South Korea insists that [inaudible 00:19:43] not count. I’m pretty sure they don’t want the United States. [inaudible 00:19:50] Are you persuading Japan to drop the price? Second, are you persuading Korea to accept [inaudible 00:20:00] just to give up. You’re not importing Japan.

Jisoo M. Kim:
I guess anybody can answer

Celeste Arrington:
I hate those questions, but I’m going to try. [inaudible 00:20:16] My instinct would be for the U.S. in this case U.S. Indopacom were probably forwarding some of their leadership by then, probably to Japan. That even before public of those two countries are reading about JIM-SDF with the vessels requesting some sunrise flag going in and Republic of Korea government resisting. Before this becomes a public knowledge, I would hope that Indopacom was stronger on both sides to say just do it. This is what needs to be done because otherwise the defense of your country is at stake. So you choose.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
I’m going to go out on a limb, but I would try to convince the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force to not have the rising sun flag. I think that eno modi is a beautiful flag and that should be enough for the morale of the sailors on those ships. And I think it would be terrible if that is what stands in the way of Japan participating in some joint operation.

Jisoo M. Kim:
Celeste or Cho you want to add anything? Nope. Okay.

Celeste Arrington:
This is my deal.

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Yes.

Shihoko Goto:
I’m Shihoko Goto with the Wilson center. A question to Professor Lee. There is a lot of concern about free trade regimes in the region. Specifically there are the CPTPP is currently in play, and South Korea is seeking to actually become a member of that agreement. There is also a free trade agreement under RCEP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement which both Japan and South Korea are a member of, as well as China. Could aspirations for these two trade regimes/trade agreements actually be as strong a source of unity for South Korea and Japan to replace something like a division in approaching the North Korea situation, or is that too weak to be concerned?

Ji-Young Lee:
Thank you. Trade is not my areas of expertise, but I will try my best and please other co-panelists please feel free to jump in if that’s okay. I am thinking about past efforts where Japan and South Korea, for example, had currency swap and then some of the regional arrangement, Chang Mai Initiatives and whatnot. And then the fate of these cooperative economic arrangement actually they were, in my view, influenced negatively by the rising political tensions between the two countries.

Ji-Young Lee:
So I would hope that these will actually, you know, be a force that could sustain and actually will incentivize and activate some of the actors, business community for example, to be able to somehow push the government towards the direction of working together with Japan. But I also noted that Japan and South Korea had been talking about free trade agreements, and then they resume negotiations when they are actually doing the talks. But then the minute some historical issue comes up, then they just pull out all the way down to [inaudible 00:24:38] all that. So in my view, although it’s not what I would like to see, these trade deals and arrangements have been influenced by the political [inaudible 00:24:49]. That’s why I think politics actually has to get it right because trade at the end of the day as a political scientist also, it’s very much about politics isn’t it? Yes.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I agree.

Chris McCray:
Chris McCray from McCray foundation, so I’ve a question really a bit more about the future of everything in that as well as what the political concerns may be the next five years. Technology is changing hugely. Possibly the Arctic Circle would have a huge influence on climate one way or another. At the end of the day, two thirds of the population of the world live in Asia, and it seems to me in all of this, if Japan would come up with a strong positive vision to invite other countries in over the next year or so, it has these huge opportunities both with a new emperor celebrating the 195 nations with the Olympics coming but so many possibilities for positive way forward. Is there any possibility that these things could go right and how can we all be helping to make these things go right?

Mike M. Mochizuki:
Well, I’ll take an initial stab at that important but difficult question. First I would say that there is both an opportunity but also a need for Japan to do that. Then in addition to those very important issues about global warming and other environmental issues, there is the shadow of the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, and I think most countries on China’s periphery would not want to choose between United States and China. I think Japan, when forced to, I mean they will of course pick the U.S.-Japan Alliance over some form of Chinese primacy, but they too, the Japanese do not want a dangerous rivalry between the United States and China. So I think there’s a real need for Japan to work with neighboring countries…

Mike M. Mochizuki:
You know what one of us Japanese scholars called to create a regional infrastructure that is apart from the U.S.-China relationship to serve as a stabilizing foundation for the future of Asia. Now, Japan has done a lot of great work with the Asian countries and now with South Asia as part of the free and open Indo-Pacific. But that one piece, a critical piece in Northeast Asia, Korea is missing. And so I don’t know how long Prime Minister Abe will stay in office. If he does stay in office for a fourth term, I hope he can see the strategic value of that. And if he doesn’t stay in office, I hope that whoever the next prime minister is will really focus on that.

Benjamin Self:
Thank you so much. I’m Ben Self with the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation. And I’ve got a few friends here, and I want to congratulate you on a wonderful round table. I learned a lot. It’s a tremendously important topic. And so I’m really grateful to Mike and to all of you for convening this session.

Benjamin Self:
To me, the richness comes from looking at the different levels at which this is happening, the social levels, and the strategic levels. But I’m particularly impressed by Professor Lee’s comment about the divergence and perceptions of China as an important factor going forward. And when I look at who wins from Japan-South Korea tensions, it seems to me it’s Beijing. But it links back to a point that Yuki made about the security relationship between Japan and South Korea having been good until this recent point. And I wanted to ask you to step back and look at that as a little longer term, because I hear South Korean strategic, long-term planning orients on not North Korea threat, but on the potential Japan threat, and that they’re looking at capabilities in the maritime domain to resist, to develop their own anti-access area denial capabilities used to be the maritime self-defense force and so on. So I’m wondering if that’s driven by different attitudes about China, and if it’s something that’s more deeply rooted than this epa-phenomenal reaction to the Supreme Court disputes.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I’ll take an initial tack at that. You know, you do hear about who’s new; who South Korea looks at as the more longer term strategic threat. And that’s where the divergence issue comes. If you ask any Japanese defense planner, the longer term strategic threat is China. But, if it were indeed long… South Korean side, the long-term strategic threat is perceived as Japan. Then there is a fundamental disconnect there that will be pretty hard to reconcile unless, and this is where I would like to bring US back into the fold because for South Korea to go down that road and put that defense planning on the path, it… You almost want… you would almost have to assume that Korean confidence in the sustainability of US-ROK alliance is degrading. Either they’re not confident in our, as in US, capability to come to their defense, or they’re increasingly anxious about the staying power of the US, as playing a leading role in the regional security architecture, whatever that meant. Whatever the form for that may be.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I would probably ask that first. If that were really the case, and which I do not know, where is that coming from? Because the US is supposed to be an anchor in all this, in Northeast Asia, because US-ROK and US-Japan bilateral alliance that we have, is really the bedrocking, the stability, of this region. And that is, in recent years, US-ROK alliance, is really morphing into the conversation of how to make a more regional alliance. Right? So if for… And if that is really not where South Korea is looking, then what does that say about Seoul’s confidence in its bilateral alliance itself? I think that would probably be my question. Ji-Young might have a better insight onto that but-

Ji-Young Lee (Ji-Yo):
You know, in South Korea, Seoul National University has this center where they, every year, they actually do the public polling… since about 2000, so it’s really very detailed, wonderful data that you can refer to. And when I say South Koreans are hesitant to spell out what their China policy should be, that does not necessarily mean that South Koreans were okay with all that happened with China’s reactions to THAAD. I think it’s… So I have to actually look at exact date that the polling data was done. But for the first time in 2017, previously, the question about country favorability in the minds of South Koreans; China was always… we’re talking about one digit basically. It’s actually the United States gets always the highest favorable rating, especially after North Korea’s propagations. But 2017, for the first time, South Korean favorability towards Japan was slightly higher than China and previously it was always actually Japan was actually not getting the mark of credibility.

Ji-Young Lee (Ji-Yo):
I mean it’s actually really so personal. So I don’t know what to make out of it, but one factor, the variable, in terms of South Korean position towards this whole question is if China continues to become a looming threat that really pushes South Korean public and policy at least to think very carefully about what to do. It would still be between a very… two very different places of the choices that they would rather not have to make. But even… I’m thinking about the period that was really interesting in South Korea, in foreign policy the context of United States and China was during the Roh Moo-Hyun government, when the administration actually said, “we’re going to be the balancer in Northeast Asia,” then people are going “but, you know about the United States’ policy against Moo-Hyun,” so that was probably the time period when Beijing really liked South Korean foreign policy. Right? But then guess what after the Roh Moo-Hyun’s balancer argument, which was heavily criticized, there isn’t any debate in public realm about this.

Ji-Young Lee (Ji-Yo):
So basically my sentiments, and you can probably arguably make an argument that the progressives are slightly more open towards embracing China than the conservatives. But even then, when I talked to my friends, and who went to… who actually are from the progressives or are truly academics in the government who advise the government. Even them. It’s basically, to me, not knowing what to do as opposed to embracing the rise of China as a leading power that can replace the United States, if that makes sense.

Jisoo Kim:
If anybody else wants to add, then we can add…

PhD Candidate:
Oh, hi. Adice Kuminami, a PhD candidate here. I have two questions. One is the clash of narratives being the cause of this tension and another is the transnational justice environment in which history disputes are being discussed.

PhD Candidate:
So first one, I can if the preposition needs so that the clash of narratives is the cause of this tension. The logical conclusion would be to, we have to stop that clash of not actives, and I hear on the Japanese side that this is all tentative, right? The Mariah must’ve been and also a more believable voices. I’m not sure what the counter parties on the Korean side; is there such an alternative narrative that is compatible with the Japanese side? And if there is one, what does it look like?

PhD Candidate:
My second question is more the transnational Justice context. So I agree with the premise that we should approach this issue as a transnational movement toward the colonization and coming to terms with the colonial past, but some… I as a scholar who studies, I knew in Okinawa indigenous movement, and decolonization movement, to me, Japan’s true reconciliation with its historical past and colonial past has been involved in your [inaudible 00:08:46] question as well as the [inaudible 00:08:47] question.

PhD Candidate:
So what I would like to see if I could design a scheme approaching this would be to tie the Korean question and the Chinese question and all together. It’s a lot to take in but I just want to put it out there, because I’ve never heard any expert take on this. So, I wonder what you would say about that.

Jisoo Kim:
Well, great question. Maybe Celeste?

Celeste Arrington:
Thanks Dicey.

Celeste Arrington:
Is he your student?

Celeste Arrington:
So I see your point about linking the history questions together. You might also say that these are both symptoms of a reluctance to deal with history in a straight forward manner. And certainly Japan is not the only country that is coming to terms with that. And you see this as part of the transnational movement towards trying to achieve historical justice and transnational transitional justice that overcome past authoritarian wrongdoings. And so I don’t, I’m not sure that lumping them together in the foundation that Mike mentioned as a proposal would be necessarily feasible at this stage. But what you do see is a lot of learning across these movements and lawyers or activists who are involved in them span across the movements and share ideas.

Celeste Arrington:
And then this is actually now spreading, for example, the lawyers who are involved in forced labor claims in Korean courts, Korean lawyers are now going on to Vietnam to try and tackle Agent Orange liability questions as well. So this is spreading further afield. But I think in terms of grappling with the history, you do have this problem of clashing narratives in… or actually having an open forum in which to discuss these narratives. And I think here both countries’ media and both countries’ public spheres are not doing a particularly good job of allowing that type of open discussion. So on the Korean side, the rise of defamation lawsuits, as I mentioned, is troubling in my mind. And so raising the question of, say, how comfort women got to a situation in which they were essentially sexual slavery. If you debate how they got there, then there was, for example, one scholar accused of criminal defamation faced criminal defamation charges.

Celeste Arrington:
In addition, the focus on litigation tends to homogenize plaintiffs, and because you have to have legal claims that are clear, that sort of says only if you fit this certain range of conditions can you join the lawsuit, and that sort of erases the great diversity of situations that people actually experienced in the past. And so in some ways, this wave of litigation that I was talking about is not good for encouraging an open discussion and research about what happened in the past. And in terms of your question of whether there’s an alternative narrative or alternative narratives in the Korean context; if we go back to Mike’s comments about the 2015 comfort women agreement, it was, I agreed, sort of doomed from the start, but in addition, in the 2017 presidential election to replace impeached president Park Geun-Hye, all five candidates from across the progressive to conservative spectrum favored reviewing the comfort women deal; all five South Korean candidates, main South Korean candidates. And there are not that many things in the world that progressives and conservatives in South Korea can agree on. But that’s not a good sign that they all agreed on that.

Celeste Arrington:
I think they had sort of different prescriptions for it, but it was coming to terms with the presidency of Park Geun-Hye, including through this judicial scandal and the investigations that are ongoing, but also the comfort women deal has sort of compounded the problems of historic disputes over historical narratives in this case and closed off open discussion about alternative narratives of history in South Korea.

Celeste Arrington:
At the same time in Japan. And you also have moves towards changing the way that media outlets can talk about these issues in narrowing the allowed scope of discussion there in unhelpful ways as well.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I think Ji-Yo can definitely add more texture to this, but one, it’s not an alternative narrative in Korea that’s possible, but one story, one types of story that are not being told, and this is where I thought when Mike mentioned about this former ambassador proposal on the settlement of this forced labor that involves Korean government, Japanese company but South Korean company that benefited from that system is, it is exactly that, that segment, that viewpoint, the story from the Korean population who actually was benefiting or getting privileges from the colonial rule has not been told.

Yuki Tatsumi:
And that’s part of… partly because that gets all mixed up, I would suspect, in this sense of social injustice that followed and the coordination movement that followed. And basically if you’re pro-Japan, you’ve got to be from those who used to be in the ruling class. Let’s not forget that up to the Yi Dynasty, it was a heavily class centric oriented society. So there are segments of the society who benefited from the rulers, but then also there were vast majority who were victims. But then this privileged class story is really not being told, and I don’t think it’s powerful enough narrative to counter the ongoing narrative. But then that definitely does add the texture if that starts being told. But I’m not sure.

Ji-Young Lee (Ji-Yo):
Just to add to Yuki’s comment right now, I think the reason why it’s not told is because those people are in South Korea, especially thinking about their domestic politics and all of that. They’re stigmatized with pro-collaborators. So I think that makes it… also it is part of nationals’ agenda to exclude. Even if they were privileged, they were… it occurred under the colonial period, which was, to them, to South Koreans, the dominant narrative that it was during an oppressive period. So I think in my mind it would be very difficult either the progressive or conservative side, taking a… which side is taking control of administration. That narrative of these Koreans who privileged under the Japanese period would not come out on the surface because Koreans would just not accept that narrative. So again, it all has to do with domestic politics constructing different historical narratives, again, very complex issues.

Yuki Tatsumi:
I think one, if I may call it, positive stories that get attention in South Korean media outlets, is the humanity part that is associated with Japanese citizens. And you know, those who went out of their way to help out those who were in trouble. So, those things get attention. So that’s why I am in support sister city exchanges and just really increase the boundaries of people-to-people exchanges. And although South Koreans are believed to have very negative image of Japan, you ask individual Koreans, they actually like Japan. So it’s very complicated, kind of. I think although it’s difficult to differentiate, I think most of it is the actions that were done, the atrocities and the attitude that they perceive as not actually coming forward with the history.

Yuki Tatsumi:
So, and I think one thing that actually has, that I noticed as being very unhelpful, was this mixed messages. For example, I noted that, I don’t know if this is the right word, but there are always these mixed messages. For example, commemorating 60th anniversary of August 15th, the day the war ended, and our Prime Minister Koizumi at the time actually issued an apology and you know, it was really nice, but then, on the same day, his cabinet members actually visited Yasukuni Shrine.

Yuki Tatsumi:
Then, what the North… South Korean news media outlet pick up is of course that those two… that’s… So I really wonder, it’s not like Japan has not apologized before, but why is it that the South Koreans have difficulty believing Japan? And sometimes that’s where the difficult concept of: you have to be sincere. I’m like, how do you show them I’m sincere? I think that’s where a lot of frustrations come in and when you have those… And when people read newspapers and stuff, they all kind of bundle all these Japanese politicians together. So the more stories of senior political leaders in Japan and their people, who actually opened up and support each other, those stories… I think that would finally get picked up, but it has not been the case.

Celeste Arrington:
Let me just add one more thing here. And again, I’m not an NPO, and a survey that Mike mentioned also shows the South Koreans, some two-thirds of them, believe that their own country’s media coverage of Japan is biased. So there is a sense that if you asked ordinary people, they don’t feel as negative necessarily and realize that some of the messaging that they’re getting is not necessarily productive for the relationship.

Yuki Tatsumi:
Right. It’s super anecdotal, but like I have not seen any of my friends… I grew up until I went to grad school in Korea. So I’m sharing my limited universe of cases, but quite many, I have not seen a single South Korean who would not become friends with Japanese because they’re Japanese. You know what I’m saying? So we just need to bring the stories up to counter and then expand the boundaries of those identities to be like global citizens and communities.

Mike Mochizuki:
If I can just set it on the… I’m not a specialist of Korea, so I may be on thin ice here. But I, I do think there is a latent alternative narrative and it’s a narrative that really complicates the history of colonialism and then what happened during the war time period. And it’s not to deny any responsibility on the Japanese side, but also to accept responsibility on the Korean side. And this is not just about collaboration, but it’s also about divisions within Korean politics. It’s the nature of Korean culture. And so, for example, on the comfort woman issue, it’s hard to fully understand that without understanding the patriarchal nature of Korean society yet. And so I’ve encountered many historians in Korea who see this complicated history, but unfortunately the political climate in South Korea has not been conducive to allowing this more complicated view of things to emerge.

Mike Mochizuki:
And one case in point that, and this is what has happened to my good friend Park Yu-Ha. who wrote a book on the comfort women issue. And I will be the first to recognize some of the flaws in that book. But it was an attempt to give a fuller picture of that tragic period in history. And, you know, she was sued in a lawsuit and basically came down with a guilty plea. And so other scholars who might want to raise that narrative would be hesitant. And so I think that needs to change. The other is not the alternative narrative, but to reframe the current narrative. And now I had the opportunity to spend a full day with Meehyang Yoon, who leads the Korean Council that represents some of the comfort women survivors. And when I first met her, I was concerned because of… she had the reputation in Japan as being very anti-Japanese.

Mike Mochizuki:
But in the course of a very lengthy conversation, I became convinced that she was not anti-Japanese but she was pro-social justice and we talked about the initiative of the Korean Council for the Butterfly Fund. And so I invited her to speak here, right here, and she was very optimistic that Japan and South Korea could move in a positive direction. So it’s to reframe the other narrative not as an anti-Japanese narrative. And this is where I have very little patience with the Japanese media, when they refer to this as han ichi, anti-Japanese or anti-Japan and not emphasizing the importance of the social justice component of this narrative. So there is a latent alternative narrative out there, but it’s also a need to reframe the current dominant narrative.

Jisoo Kim:
Okay. Due to interest of time, I think I’ll take similar questions and then have that as a final history.

Huang – Grad Student GW:
Oh, thank you. My name is Huang, I’m a grad student in GW. I have one questions for Professor Tatsumi. You brought up the US several times as the gluing factor or a coperation process between the two countries. Do you think maybe in the future, long-term future, another gluing factor could be the ASEAN, considering both countries have been members in a lot of Asian-led institutions and both have been diverting trade relation to what Asian countries as a diversion from the dependence on Chinese economy. And my second question is for maybe Professor-

Jisoo Kim:
Sorry, one question because we are running out of time so maybe you can ask afterwards.

Huang – Grad Student GW:
Okay

Dave. Retired Foreign Service:
So, Dave, retired foreign service. Just to build on that last question, it’s really going back to whether we’re really in crisis in Japan-South Korea relations or whether we actually have an interlude of chaos. Chaos largely driven by the Trump administration emphasis on bilateralism in all its relations. Everything that’s being said about Europe in the last two years. We haven’t heard as much about East Asia in that context, but the thinking is all the same way of what is… Why are we still supporting the defense commitment to South Korea when they could well afford to defend themselves. They’re… They don’t seem to be thinking of North Korea as the threat so what are we depending on from? We’re defending Korea from Koreans? It’s maybe time to get out of that the…

Dave. Retired Foreign Service:
So it seems to me that once the Trump effort with North Korea seems to be going down towards collapse and failure, then we get back to resuming bilateral military exercises on the peninsula, which gets into trilateral coordination at some point and we get back towards a more normal situation, which may be a little bit tense, less crisis, but tense always. But we get out of the chaos we seem to be in.

Jisoo Kim:
Yeah, I think that was a comment rather than a question. Okay then, any more questions? Then maybe you can ask your second question.

Huang – Grad Student GW:
Well, thank you Professor Arrington and Professor Lee. Well, I heard this narrative a lot from the Japanese people that I’ve met, usually at the bar. They said that, “oh, why do the Korean need us to apologize for the comfort women issues? Why they themselves do not apologize for their own comfort women issues with, for example, the Vietnamese women?”. So do you think if that Vietnamese women issues can be solved or maybe recognize in a way by the Korean administrations, then that will clear that narrative off the table because that is not contributive narrative at all. Thank you.

Jisoo Kim:
All right, short response.

Celeste Arrington:
Sure. Briefly, thanks for the question Huang. I don’t think it’ll clear up the comfort women issue, but what we do see is an emphasis in the growing movement around supporting the surviving comfort women is an infrastructure of a movement that as the older survivors pass away, it needs, in some sense. this sounds negative, but a reason to continue existing. And so it’s continuing to raise awareness about other instances of military sexual slavery around the world. And that’s part of, it’s… the Korean Council’s mission now. At the same time you have these social justice lawyers that I mentioned trying to raise awareness, social justice issues in China and Vietnam and moving transnationally. So there’s a lot of networks that I think Dicey was also mentioning that are forming sort of growing out of the comfort women issue. But I don’t see the solution working backwards the other direction.

Yuki Tatsumi:
Oh, the questions. Thanks for the question. Question about ASEAN. They do have a, I mean both Japan and Korea have a shared interest vis-à-vis ASEAN. I mean the way they look at ASEAN is I would say similar in a sense that alternative market to reduce dependence on Chinese economy, and then also look at the regional framework into which they, their diplomatic effort can be anchored, but those are all great when things between Japan and Tokyo and Seoul are going well. But once it starts turning southward, like I agree with you David, I don’t think we’re in a crisis, I think we’re in a massive chaos relationship with AEAN will not be a forcing function for Japan and Korea to work together in a way that presence of the US has been. And in a sense that, in lack thereof, I guess in the current environment.

Ji-Young Lee (Ji-Yo):
I think that this take is different. They probably are very different. And if you think about how narratives get constructed and all these questions of framing involves selection on the part of the actors and as long as these narratives are connected to, a sense of national pride, it’s the same thing with some of the Japanese conservatives, the kind of narratives that they advocate. And probably the similar way in South Korea too. When you select, you select, there are brute facts out there, but for you to select and create a narrative that will make you feel good as a nation, that’s a problem that has been happening actually across the globe when it comes to how an official narrative gets created. So we experience a war and memory and all that. So hope that answers your question.

Jisoo Kim:
I think with that we would have to end our discussion because it’s already over four. But instead of crisis we may end by thinking it’s chaos, but I don’t know whether that’s a better thing, but we still have a lot to resolve. So with that, thank you so much for your great questions and please join me in thanking our speakers.

3/28/2019: What’s Up With Student Activism in India and the US Now?

Sigur Center logo with line art of Asian landmarks

Thursday, March 28, 2019
2:00 PM – 3:30 PM

Lindner Family Commons, 6th Floor
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 book cover of The university as a site of resistance

Light refreshments will be served. This event is on the record and open to the media.

About the Event:

Universities have long been the sites of resistance and freedom of expression. The student revolt in the 1960s across US university campuses had an indelible impact on European student movements and revitalized the debate on democracies around the globe, including the world’s largest democracy, India. For the past decade US and Indian university campuses have been embroiled in student protests against capitalist policies. In the age of hashtag activism, how have campus politics and forms of resistance changed? Can we draw some parallel between then and now? The panel debates the changing dynamics of student politics and its relationship to broader social movements in the US and India.

About the Speaker:

black and white photo of mark rudd speaking at an event

Mark Rudd was the Chairman of the Columbia Chapter of Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) in April, 1968, during the largest student strike against the war in Vietnam and racism up to that time. He then was elected the last National Secretary of SDS and helped found the revolutionary and anti-imperialist Weather Underground. He was a federal fugitive for seven and a half years. The author of Underground: My Life in SDS and Weathermen, Mark Rudd has been a lifetime organizer for peace and social justice. He’s now involved in transforming the Democratic Party into a party of the people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

headshot of gaurav pathania in professional attire

Gaurav J. Pathania teaches Social Movements in the Department of Sociology at the George Washington University. He is a Visiting Scholar at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst and a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the University of Southern California, USA. His research explores student movements, race, caste and regional identity issues in higher education. He authored a book: The University as a Site of Resistance: identity and Student Politics with Oxford University Press.

flyer with Chinese and Japanese flags and yuan and yen symbols; text: Improving China-Japan Relations

2/26/19: Improving China-Japan Relations: Implications for Economic and Strategic Multilateralism in Asia

logos of the sigur center and us japan research institute

Tuesday, February 26, 2019 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM
Room 505
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

 china and japan flags in the background with improving china-japan relations text

Light refreshments will be served. This event is on the record and open to the media.

About the Event:

In 2019, the Indo-Pacific region could have three mega free-trade agreements (FTAs): the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement). Although these FTAs will differ in quality, they all do not include the United States. China seeks to improve its ties with major countries in the region, such as Japan and India, to shape the regional rule-making process for trade, investment, and infrastructure. Although Japan continues to be cautious about China’s global and regional economic initiatives, concerns about the Trump Administration’s trade policies and possible tariffs on automobiles have motivated Japan to consider working with China to build a regional economic order that could mitigate the negative effects of U.S. protectionist policies. During his visit to Beijing in November 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared that the Sino-Japanese relationship was entering a new era of cooperation rather than competition. President Xi Jinping is scheduled to make his first visit to Japan as China’s leader when he attends the G20 Summit in Osaka in June 2019. This panel discussion will examine the economic and strategic implications of improving China-Japan relations for the United States and consider the advantages of multilateralism as opposed to bilateralism.

 

Panelists:
Takashi Terada, Professor of International Relations at Dōshisha University, Kyoto, Japan
Albert Keidel, Adjunct Graduate Professor of Economics, George Washington University
Kuniko Ashizawa, Japan Coordinator of Asian Studies Research Council at the School of International Service, American University

Moderator:
Mike Mochizuki, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University

 

About the Speakers:

portrait of Takashi Terada in professional attire

Takashi Terada is Professor of International Relations at Dōshisha University, Kyoto, Japan. He received his Ph.D from the Australian National University in 1999. Before taking up his current position in April 2012, he was an assistant professor at the National University of Singapore (1999-2006) and associate and full professor at Waseda University, Tokyo (2006-2011). He has also served as a visiting fellow at University of Warwick, U.K. (2011-12), a public policy scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington D.C. (2012), and an operating adviser for the US-Japan Institute (USJI) (2011-). His areas of specialty include international political economy in Asia and the Pacific, theoretical and empirical studies of Asian regionalism and regional integration, and Japanese politics and foreign policy. His book in Japanese entitled East Asian and Asia-Pacific Regional Integration: Institutional and Normative Competition was published by University of Tokyo Press (2013). He is the recipient of the 2005 J.G. Crawford Award.

headshot of albert keidel in professional attire

Albert Keidel is a development economist specializing in East Asia. His recently completed book manuscript applies lessons from China’s economic success to an understanding of successful economic development. He is a professorial lecturer at George Washington University’s Economics Department, where he teaches a graduate course on the Chinese economy. He previously was a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States and a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Dr. Keidel served as Acting Director and Deputy Director of the Office of East Asian Nations and as China’s Desk Officer in the U.S. Treasury Department.  Before joining Treasury in 2001, he covered China economic trends, system reforms, poverty, and country risk as a fixed-term Senior Economist in the World Bank office in Beijing (1997-2000).  He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard and was post-doctoral fellow in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Tokyo.

photo of kumiko ashizawa at a talk event

Kuniko Ashizawa teaches international relations and serves as Japan Coordinator of Asian Studies Research Council at the School of International Service, American University. From 2005 until 2012, she was a senior lecturer in international relations at Oxford Brookes University in the U.K. Her research interests include Japan’s foreign, security and development assistance policy, U.S.-Japan-China relations, regional institution-building in Asia, and the role of the concept of state identity in foreign policymaking, for which she has published a number of academic journal articles and book chapters, including in International Studies Review, Pacific Affairs, the Pacific Review, and Journal of Peacebuilding and Development. Her book, Japan, the U.S. and Regional Institution-Building in the New Asia: When Identity Matters (Palgrave McMillan, 2013), received the 2015 Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. Ashizawa was a visiting fellow at various research institutions, including the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the East-West Center in Washington, the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, SAIS, and the United Nations University (Institute of Advanced Studies) in Tokyo. She received her PhD in international relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.

Headshot of Professor Mike Mochizuki in professional attire

Mike M. Mochizuki holds the Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur at the Elliott School of International Affairs in George Washington University.  Professor Mochizuki was associate dean for academic programs at the Elliott School from 2010 to 2014 and director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies from 2001 to 2005.  He co-directs the “Rising Powers Initiative” and the “Memory and Reconciliation in the Asia-Pacific” research and policy project of the Sigur Center. Previously he was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was also Co-Director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Policy at RAND and has taught at the University of Southern California and Yale University.  He received his Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.  His recent books include Memory, Identity, and Commemorations of World War II: Anniversary Politics in Asia Pacific (co-editor and co-author, 2018);Energy Security in Asia and Eurasia (co-editor and co-author, 2017); Nuclear Debates in Asia: The Role of Geopolitics and Domestic Processes (co-editor and author, 2016); The Okinawa Question: Futenma, the US-Japan Alliance, and Regional Security (co-editor and author, 2013); China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment (co-author, 2013).

book cover with Chinese lion statue; text: Strategic Asia 2019 China's Expanding Strategic Ambitions

2/7/19: The Strategic Asia Program Presents: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions

Introductory Remarks and Panel 1

(Starts at 45 minutes)

Panel 2

(Starts at 12 Minutes)

Keynote and Closing Remarks

(Starts at 23.5 Minutes)

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Thursday, February 7, 2019 9:30 AM – 2:00 PM

Elliott School of International Affairs

City View Room, 7th Floor

1957 E Street, NW, Washington, District Of Columbia 20052

book cover of china's expanding strategic ambitions

 

NBR invites you to join us for a discussion and luncheon on China’s rise and the international order to mark the release of the eighteenth volume in the Strategic Asia series: Strategic Asia 2019: China’s Expanding Strategic Ambitions, edited by Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills.

This event will feature remarks by Strategic Asia research director, Ashley J. Tellis, as well as two panels of Strategic Asia authors discussing China’s regional geographic ambitions, and China’s influence on international rules and order. The panels will be followed by a luncheon and keynote remarks by Assistant Secretary of Defense, Randall Schriver.

PROGRAM:

9:30 AM – 10:00 AM Registration

Keynote Remarks:

Randall G. Schriver – Department of Defense | Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs

Featured Speakers:

Ashley J. Tellis – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Strategic Asia Research Director

Samantha Custer – AidData | College of William & Mary

Patricia Kim – United States Institute for Peace

Elizabeth Wishnick – Montclair State University

Joel Wuthnow – National Defense University

Map of Eastern Hemisphere with China highlighted in green and the Middle East and North Africa highlighted in orange

1/23/2019: Asia In The Middle East

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Wednesday, January 23, 2019 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM

Lindner Family Commons Room 602
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

 

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headshot of satoshi ikeuchi in professional attire

Satoshi Ikeuchi is a professor of Religion and Global Security at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) of the University of Tokyo. He was a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in 2009 and Visiting Fellow at the Clare Hall University of Cambridge in 2010. He specializes in Middle East Politics and Arab-Islamic Thought. His publications include Islamukoku-no Shogeki (The Shock of the Islamic State) published in 2015 which was a nation-wide best selling book in Japan and awarded several prizes. He also published literary and critical essays in various journals and compiled them into a book Shomotsu-no Ummei (The Fate of Books) which was award Mainichi Book Review Prize in 2006.

headshot of jon alterman in professional attire

Jon Alterman is a senior vice president, holds the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and is director of the Middle East Program at CSIS. Prior to joining CSIS in 2002, he served as a member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. He also previously served as an expert adviser to the Iraq Study Group (also known as the Baker-Hamilton Commission). In addition to his policy work, he often teaches Middle Eastern studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the George Washington University.

headshot of karen young with brown background

Karen Young is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on the political economy of the Middle East, the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (best known as the GCC), and the Arabian Peninsula. She concurrently teaches courses on the international relations and economy of the Middle East at George Washington University and at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Taiwanese and American flags line hanging over the DC Chinatown gate

12/12/18 Sigur Center Taiwan Conference Series | Taiwan-US Relations: Enhancing the Terms of Engagement in Media, Business and Trade

Wednesday, December 12, 2018 11:30 AM – 2:00 PM EST

Lindner Family Commons Suite 602
The Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW
Washington, DC 20052

 

line of American and Taiwanese flags with the Chinatown arch in the background

 
 
 
About the Event:
Amidst concerns about the use of Chinese sharp power in the region, digital media literacy and disinformation in elections, and economic uncertainty from the unfolding US-China trade war, opportunities may arise for the US and Taiwan to enhance terms of cooperative engagement on issues that worry both sides. Please join the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Organization of Asian Studies for a conference with experts to discuss Taiwan-US Relations: Enhancing the Terms of Engagement in Media, Business and Trade. Lunch will be provided.
Agenda:
11:00 AM – 11:30 AM: Registration

11:30 AM – 12:30 PM: 
Panel I: Media Literacy and Fake News: Countering China’s Sharp Power Impact
Topics of Discussion:
  • How Do I Know if That’s True? Dealing with Disinformation
    • Margaret Farley, Adjunct Professor, American University School of Communication
  • The Social Media Landscape in Taiwan
    • Jessica Drun, Fellow, Party Watch Initiative
Moderated by: Benjamin Hopkins, Director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies

12:30 PM – 1:00 PM: Lunch

1:00 PM – 2:00 PM: Panel II: Protecting Convergent Interests in Business and Trade
Topics of Discussion:
  • Strengthening the Taiwan-US Partnership
    • Riley Walters, Policy Analyst, The Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center
  • Taiwan-US Business Interactions and Digital Economic Issues: The Real Deal
    • Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President, US-Taiwan Business Council
Moderated by: Deepa Ollapally, Associate Director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies
 —
About the Speakers:
 
 
Headshot of Maggie Farley with greenery in the background

Maggie Farley is a former Los Angeles Times foreign correspondent who is now exploring the intersection of journalism and technology, and recently returned from a four-week speaking tour in Asia about news and disinformation as part of the State Department’s International Speaker Program.

Farley was a professional fellow at American University from 2015-2017 focusing on engagement design for journalism, and is now an adjunct professor at AU in the School of Communication. She is a co-creator of the fake news game, Factitious, which tests players’ skill in telling real news from misinformation. Farley spent 14 years as an award-winning foreign correspondent for the LA Times. She was based in Hong Kong and Shanghai, covering Southeast Asia and then China before returning to New York to head the U.N. Bureau just in time to cover 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq.  Farley hopped to new media from old media in 2009, as a partner in Lucky G Media, creating digital educational content. Lucky Grasshopper, an animated app for learning Chinese characters, hit the App Store’s top ten in educational apps in 2010. Farley has designed digital education projects for Pearson Foundation, bgC3, and is the chair of the advisory board for the News Literacy Project.  She has a B.A. from Brown University and an M.A. from Harvard University.

Headshot of Jessica Drun in professional attire with tan background

Jessica Drun is a fellow with the Party Watch Initiative. She was previously a project associate at the National Bureau of Asian Research, where she managed and assisted with the organization’s Taiwan programming, as well as its annual People’s Liberation Army conference. Her research interests include cross-Strait relations, Taiwan domestic politics, U.S.-China relations, and U.S.-Taiwan relations. Ms. Drun has also held positions at the National Defense University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Project 2049 Institute. Ms. Drun graduated with an MA in Asian Studies from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in 2015 and an AB in International Affairs from the University of Georgia in 2011. She spent a year abroad in Taiwan as a 2014-15 Boren Fellow. She is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and conversational in Min Nan Chinese.

headshot of Rupert Hammond-Chambers speaking at an event

Rupert Hammond-Chambers began working for the US-Taiwan Business Council in October 1994. In March of 1998, he was promoted to Vice President of the Council with additional responsibilities for office management, oversight of the staff, financial bookkeeping and a clear mandate to build out the Council’s member/client base. Mr. Hammond-Chambers was elected President of the Council in November 2000. As the trade relationship between the United States, Taiwan and China continues to evolve, he has worked to develop the Council’s role as a strategic partner to its members, with the continuing goal of positioning the Council as a leader in empowering American companies in Asia through value and excellence. Mr. Hammond-Chambers is also the Managing Director, Taiwan for Bower Group Asia – a strategic consultancy focused on designing winning strategies for companies. He is also responsible for Bower Group Asia’s defense and security practice. He sits on the Board of the Project2049 Institute, and on the Advisory Boards of Redwood Partners International, The Sabatier Group, and the Pacific Star Fund. He is a Trustee of Fettes College and is a member of the National Committee on United States-China Relations.

headshot of Riley Walters in professional attire

Riley Walters is policy analyst for Asia Economy and Technology in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center. He specializes in Northeast Asian macroeconomic issues as well as foreign investment, emerging technologies, and cybersecurity. Riley previously lived in Japan, one year in Kumamoto prefecture and one year in Tokyo while attending Sophia University. He holds his master’s and bachelor’s degrees in Economics from George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. He also holds a minor degree in Japanese Studies. Before joining The Heritage Foundation he worked at the Competitive Enterprise Institute as a research associate. Riley is a former Penn Kemble Fellow with the National Endowment for Democracy and George C. Marshall Fellow with The Heritage Foundation. Riley was born and raised in Alexandria, Virginia. He and his wife now live in Arlington, Virginia. He is fluent in Japanese.

Transcript

Alexandra Wong:
Good morning everyone. My name is Alexandra Wong. I’m the officer of Taiwan Affairs for the Organization of Asian Studies at the Elliott School. Thank you so much for all being here today. I’m just going to take a little time to introduce OAS, as we call it. OAS is a student led organization that tries to connect young professionals interested in Asia with professionals working in the field. We try to share cultural experiences, expand the academic experience, and try to connect DC Policy community with the classroom. In addition, I’d like to add that today we will be live streaming the event and I think there’s a few live streamers out there at this moment and I’m going to introduce the director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. His name is Professor Benjamin Hopkins and I would like everyone to welcome him. Thank you.

Benjamin Hopkins:
Thank you Lexi. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning for what is the final of our Taiwan Conferences slash Roundtables for 2018. We annually do four of these and I’m really happy to do today’s.

Benjamin Hopkins:
I’ll just get into today’s program which looks to be really fascinating and slightly different from some of our previous conferences. Today we’re here to talk about the Taiwan-US Relations: Enhancing the Terms of Engagement in Media, and Business, and Trade and I’ll be chairing this morning’s first panel which is about media’s literacy and fake news. We have two fantastic panelists with us today whose bios you can find in the program, which hopefully you all have a copy of.

Benjamin Hopkins:
Maggie Farley is a former LA Times correspondent, is currently an adjunct professor at AU. She was telling me, just before we sat down and started, about the game, which is referenced in her bio, Factitious, which she assures me is PG and is well used between nine and three which means it’s well used in schools it sounds like. I think we’ll have some interesting conversation about fake news and maybe how we can all check that out on, is it, factitiousgame.com.

Benjamin Hopkins:
Jessica Drun, who’s a fellow at the Policy Watch Institute and was previously an associate at The National Bureau of Asian Research. With that I’ll turn it over to our speakers who were going to each present for about 20 minutes or so after which we’ll open the floor for questions. To follow Jessica and then, Maggie.

Jessica Drun:
Thank you. I’d like to start by thanking Deepa and Richard for the opportunity to speak here today and to the Sigur Center for hosting. I’d like to note that these comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization that I’m affiliated with. I was asked to discuss Taiwan’s social media landscape and its vulnerabilities to outside actors, especially as it pertains to last month local elections. I want to start by setting the stage and quickly going over the current state of Cross-Strait relations. Since the current DPP president, Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016, China has terminated official contacts with Taipei and increased pressure on the Island, including by poaching its diplomatic allies, squeezing its international space and sending fighter jets near Taiwan. All this has happened in spite of continued reassurances from president Tsai, that she is committed to maintaining the status quo.

Jessica Drun:
This is not enough for Beijing, which has called for Tsai to affirm the 1992 consensus, a vague formulation centered around the notion of One-China, which was used by the previous KMT administration as a baseline for official contacts. At the same time, Beijing has pursued local avenues and in engaging with the Island. It has continued engagement with the KMT by rewarding KMT health districts with economic packages and exchanges with Chinese officials at the local level. Beijing’s aim has been to paint the DPP in a negative light, as unfit to govern while bolstering the KMT as a more capable alternative. Its apparent approach to social media interference falls in line with this objective, to undermine Tsai in the DPP.

Jessica Drun:
So just how widespread is social media usage in Taiwan? According to statistics in 2017, 80% of Taiwan’s internet users actively use social media. Facebook was the most popular platform with a 77% penetration rate. Mobile messaging app Line, similar to WhatsApp here in the States, came at 71%, Twitter at 21%. However, these platforms are used in different ways for political discussions. PTT, a bulletin board system, not dissimilar to Reddit is Taiwan’s most popular platform for discussing politics. As of March this year, PTT had 1.5 million registered users with 150,000 active users during peak hours. Facebook comes in second while Line is harder to measure given that discussions are private. Twitter is used more by politicians to engaged with audiences outside of Taiwan. Social media did not gain traction as a tool for political campaigns in Taiwan until the 2014 local elections. When Ko Wen-je the independent candidate for Taipei mayor, effectively used social media to rally support. The DPP social media strategy in 2016’s presidential legislative elections were also cited as a reason for the party’s victory against the KMT that year.

Jessica Drun:
These terms have been explored and assessed in China with state media citing the statistics I mentioned earlier, as well as the advantages social media has provided the DPP in the 2016 elections. Chinese universities, such as Xiamen University, have likewise conducted in depth studies of Taiwan social media usage. All in all, this reflects an acute understanding of the role social media plays in fostering political debate on the Island and in election strategy. There have been numerous instances with Chinese interference in Taiwan social media. Ahead of the 2016 election, Chinese internet users gained access to Facebook, which is normally blocked in China, and spammed Tsai Ing-wen’s official Facebook page with critical comments. Her page was again spammed in January 2016, as was the pages of popular Taiwanese media outlets that were reporting on the election.

Jessica Drun:
At this point in time, it was clear that the posts came from China. The comments on the Facebook pages all use simplified characters instead of traditional characters including line-by-line repetitions of Chinese government slogans and featured an unwarranted degree of animosity. Studies out of Taiwan, however, have seen efforts on the Chinese side to better blend in through a localization campaign. Social news include converting texts on account and messages from simplified Chinese to traditional and learning to imitate local ways to speech used in Taiwan. A Taiwanese scholar has also noticed a strategy focused on swing voters, targeting pro DPP pages to weaken perceptions of support and posting positive article about the KMT while adding Taiwanese friends on these platforms to come off as legitimate locals. A [foreign digital application] post was circulated that outline a quote battle plan in January 2016 that more or less substantiates these claims. The posts ask participants not to swear, to keep your emotions in check and to focus on promoting anti-independence materials.

Jessica Drun:
As these efforts become more sophisticated, their effects began to take hold. The most prominent and ultimately tragic example is from September of this year during Typhoon Jebi in Japan, which knocked out a bridge and stranded thousands of travelers at the Osaka International Airport. Rumors began to circulate and were amplified by traditional media in Taiwan, that the Chinese consulate who managed to deploy a bus to the airport to assistance its citizens, but were refusing to aid Taiwanese at the airport unless they affirmed allegiance to Taiwan. A public outcry and ensued, criticizing Tsai, the DPP representative to Japan Frank Hsieh, and Taiwan’s de facto consulate in Osaka. During the fallout, the head of the consulate committed suicide. Afterward, Taiwanese internet users found that the original post came from an IP address in Beijing and Japanese officials refuted the claim asserting that the Chinese consulate did not have access to the airport.

Jessica Drun:
Again, all these posts are aimed at Tsai and painting her administration as unfit to govern and convincing social media users and Taiwan’s electorate that this is the case. There have been numerous other examples including false claims on her government’s approach to the sensitive topic of pension forms, as well as an incident when there was flooding in Tainan. Post began to circulate claiming that’s high was unsympathetic and refuse to step into floodwaters to check on victims despite though later emerging, disproving this. In the aftermath of last month’s elections, it’s worth stressing that any interference from China will be hard to source given things like IP spoofing. It is also difficult to weigh the impact against other factors that could have determined election outcomes. In spite of this, and ultimately in the end, Beijing got what it wanted. The KMT swept the elections and the candidates, but one, have called for greater engagement with China.

Jessica Drun:
The statements out of the Taiwan Affairs Office, likewise, call for local level exchanges under the 1992 consensus noting, and I quote, “With a correct understanding on the nature of Cross-Strait relations and the nature of exchanges between cities across the Strait, more countries and cities in Taiwan are welcomed to participate in such exchanges in cooperation. Moving forward to the new year more KMT health cities and counties will engage with China at the local election… local level while relations at the top remain frozen.” What I think is important to note, however, is an unwillingness to draw parallels between the election outcome and potential Chinese meddling in Taiwan public discourse. Taiwan’s government and the cyber from FireEye have both cited strong evidence that China was playing a role. Yet as the election results are unfolding, and even in the aftermath, there was little reference in Taiwan’s mainstream media of any effect Chinese influence may have had on the outcome.

Jessica Drun:
Part of the reason interference campaigns are successful is because the societal and political divides are already there. The hyperpartisanship is already there. We see this not just in Taiwan, but here as well. Authoritarian governments are able to localize their efforts and exacerbate existing tensions at relatively low cost to themselves. Perhaps the first step to addressing this issue is a bipartisan consensus through a working group or something similar that aims to work toward a solution. Any outside support should be disavowed, not encouraged, as undermining democratic institutions. Thank you.

Margaret Farley:
So I first came to Taiwan in 1996 when Taiwan was preparing for it’s first democratic presidential elections and China was shooting missiles, in its direction. And I got to land on the aircraft carrier of The Independence, which was flying straight to try to keep these… So these days Taiwan is still having democratic elections and China’s still shooting things Taiwan’s direction. But now it’s not missiles, it’s misinformation and disinformation. And that’s my game. I’ll just interrupt myself. It’s… The interface is based on Tinder so it has, whether you, you swipe right if you think it’s real and left if you think it’s not real. So I was developing and my husband looking at my phone, he was like, “Why do you have Tinder on your phone?”

Margaret Farley:
Okay, so back to disinformation. So what we call fake news now has been around for a long time. It just used to be known as something else. It’s been used to start wars. You remember the M-A-I-N? To erase people from history, to add people from history. Anyone from Taiwan in the crowd recognize these people? Anyway, former directors of the AIT were photo-shopped out and a controversial author was photo-shopped in, inside joke. So we talk about misinformation and disinformation, and the difference is, is misinformation is sort of mistakenly spreading news that’s not true. Information, that’s not true. And disinformation is deliberately deceiving or distorting information.

Margaret Farley:
And so this is what we see in our presidential elections or in the French elections, in the German elections trying to manipulate voter behavior. So this is an example done by the Russians targeting people on Facebook who were likely to vote for Hillary. And it says, “Don’t bother to vote. Just text your vote in”. Which, you don’t know how many people believed it, but it was fake. And… Hoaxers, the people who create this information, this information are very clever. They’d be great marketers because they get everybody to do their work for them. They want you to share it, and they know how to target you to make you want to share it. In fact, before our presidential election, more people shared false news on Facebook than real news. And that’s when we realized we really had a problem… because they know how to target your biases.

Margaret Farley:
You know, it’s not really our fault that we believe this stuff, it’s the way our brains are wired and there’s all sorts of biases in what we’ll go through, but, so today I want to talk first about why is this information so effective and why has it been so effective in Taiwan in particular? Why is it such a problem there? And what can we do to detect and combat it and what is Taiwan doing?

Margaret Farley:
So our brains love fake news. Oh my God, it’s so exciting. Can you believe that? Oh, I’m right. I knew I was right all along, I’m going to tell everybody. This is the effect that they want to create and they know that people are attracted to those kinds of stories and those are the kinds of things that are going to get shared. There’s also confirmation bias, which is even in the face of evidence, we’d like to cling to our beliefs. In fact, when we’re presented with facts that show that we’re wrong, sometimes people will double down and say, Oh, I’ve been raised that way all my life. I’m not going to change my mind you’re just trying to manipulate me.

Margaret Farley:
Technology has its own bias. It amplifies and accelerates all of these trends. You know about bots? Not actual robots, but they are computer programs designed to spread information much, much faster than a human can. And that plays into the algorithms which looks to see what are popular in the search sites or on Twitter what’s trending and it elevates what’s popular and not necessarily what’s correct. We’ve seen bots in lots of elections and in our elections, in the French elections and the German elections, helped Duterte become president in Philippines. And just this week they found that Russian bots are fanning the flames in France with the yellow vest movements.

Margaret Farley:
There’s also familiarity factor. The more we hear it, the more we are likely to believe it. And that is a product of the bots as well. And then misinformation, disinformation, it plays on our social bias because we like to be in a community, we like to create groups. But when we create a group, it also excludes people. It can create a wall to keep other people out. So, the disinformation likes to play on these tensions, whether it’s political or racial or religious, ethnic, or in Taiwan, the Cross-Straits tension. So I tell people this is a red flag. Anytime you get a piece of information that inflames that feeling of us versus them, whether it’s my football team is the best or my country is the best, be aware because what we believe will be less about the facts or the evidence than about our loyalty to a group. You know, the fact that I think that anybody should be able to carry an automatic riffle may say less about the facts that lots of school children are unnecessarily being killed than it marks me as a member of a tribe. Not my personal belief.

Margaret Farley:
The other thing that they know is that we trust news from friends more than from other sources. So guess what? They want to be your friend and they’ll pretend to be your friend. So you have to ask yourself, who are they and why are they telling you this? So this is an example from before the presidential election when a Russian group went to Facebook and said, “We want to target likely voters, supporters of Trump”. And this came across the Facebook feed and they said, “Press like to help Jesus beat the devil”. And so if you’re a conservative Christian, part of this group that they’re targeting, what are you going to do? Like! And then once you press like they know that you believe that they want you to believe, they send you a friend request and then suddenly this information is coming into your newsfeed as if it’s from your friend. It doesn’t say sponsored, it’s not labeled as a political ad, it’s just your friend sharing their interesting information.

Margaret Farley:
They even use this to help start organizing demonstrations. This is when “Down with Hillary! Come demonstrate in New York city. I’m going, are you?” So this information, you know, it seems innocuous, it’s just your, your newsfeed, whatever. But it actually has very profound effects on the society that’s based on a free market of information. It causes confusion and it doesn’t even have to be correct or incorrect as long as it muddies the truth. It’s very damaging because we make our decisions based on what we assume to be reliable information. It distorts the public debate, which is essential to a democracy and it leads people to make uninformed choices about their life, about their health, about their leaders.

Margaret Farley:
So Taiwan, you can see all of these elements playing out in the disinformation that affects Taiwan. But Taiwan has a few special ingredients that make it a different case from the United States. Well, like the United States, it has among… It’s one of the world’s highest users of social media. The internet penetration is almost total. Even the old people, especially the old people, elderly people are online and using social media. They mostly use LINE, which is like WhatsApp or kind of like Twitter. There’s a key existential issue, this tensious Cross-Straits tension. Should Taiwan be independent? Should it be autonomous? Should it be separate from China or should everybody be part of one big motherland?

Margaret Farley:
There is a lot of media. There are a lot of media in Taiwan, especially digital now… And they’re often influenced very much by the social media, just like you can see here too, but in Taiwan they call it journalism. Journalists are actually rewarded for the number of clicks they get and the number of stories they post, which doesn’t foster in-depth reporting, independent reporting or a thorough fact check. The other is China’s massive scale. Maybe you’ve heard of the 50 Cent Army, which is an arm of the military, the cyber troops who are supposedly paid 50 cents for every post they make and they’re rewarded if it makes it into the Taiwanese official media or off the social media into the regular media and they… Taiwanese officials say that they fend off 2,500 cyber probes attacks and bits of disinformation a day that they know about.

Margaret Farley:
There’s also the need for better media literacy. It’s starting to be taught in schools, and there are other tools that I’m going to show you, but in general, just like in the United States, a media literacy is a relatively new phenomenon. Some people in Taiwan have told me also that their educational system doesn’t foster critical thinking and that there are educational forms targeting that as well.

Margaret Farley:
So this is just an example of how fake news has real consequences and it’s amplified on the Kansai incident that we just heard about from Jessica. So the story was that the only Chinese were being rescued from the flooded airport, and if you were Taiwanese, you had to pledge loyalty to say that you’re a Chinese citizen to get on the bus. So this started in Chinese social media and went to Chinese media. It, this is Chinese, it went to Taiwanese social media and then into the regular media, and it caused so many people to attack the Taiwanese official in Japan, that he ended up committing suicide, saying that he just couldn’t bear the agony, even though the story was wrong, the government tried to refute it, but the social media tidal wave of anger and attacks drove him to his death.

Margaret Farley:
So there’s something, a small, tiny, independent fact-checking organization that just started this year, the Taiwan Fact Check Center. And so they tried to trace this back. How did this whole story start? Where did it start? How did it get so much momentum? And it was traced back to a Chinese social media user. And then it got momentum on the mainland and then came through as I showed you, but they actually reported it out and they call the Kansai airport officials and they asked who sent the buses to rescue the passengers, where did they get to? And the answer was very clear and that wasn’t the way the story that had been reported in the media at all. But the Taiwanese official was not at fault. But then the Kansai airport officials asked, “Why are you the only one who’s called?” And they said that to that point, no one had really called and asked those questions. Here’s some examples of fake news that I’ve translated that have influenced the election. This was for the presidential election a couple of years ago. There was a report on social media that Taiwan was going to lease this little island in the Spratlys, which is as you know, contested territory to the United States to use as a naval base. So of course if you get a huge uproar between not only Taiwan and China, but the United States having to get involved as well and, and refute that.

Margaret Farley:
I think you talked about this as well. So during the floods in Tainan, there was this picture of Tsai Ing-wen who, when they said, “Oh, she didn’t even get in the water. She didn’t even meet the people. And look, she’s laughing at this man”. This was the social media post, she’s laughing at this guy like drudging through the water. But in fact, this is the real picture. And she was waving to this guy. So it’s just little things like this. There’s just a constant stream of messages that are seeking to undermine one candidate or another to inflame tensions.

Margaret Farley:
And you can’t prove that they all come from the mainland. There are plenty of political opponents just like here, it’s very hyper-partisan. But you can get the idea of the climate. Tsai Ing-wen and her, her Facebook page actually said, “Someone wants to suppress how long democracies. Someone wants Taiwanese to be afraid”. Then it was like, “We have to show with our boats that these efforts will be useless”. It’s pretty clear who that someone she’s referring to, to which, is it [inaudible 00:15:50] replied, Tsai Ing-wen is fake news”. But if everyone is saying that the news is fake, what is real? “If the truth isn’t true,” as Rudy Giuliani said, ” then what is the truth?”. It’s very confusing. It’s very subversive to democracy, to a real conversation, to even just making decisions in your daily life.

Margaret Farley:
So it leads to open questions, which we can talk about for the next half hour. What is the responsibility of the platforms to filter the news? Should there be more government regulation? And what about freedom of speech? How do you balance the need to protect people from this information and the need to protect people’s freedom of expression? Every government in the world right now is grappling with this and they’re all coming up with different answers. So does anybody know who this is? Yes. So this is Audrey Tang. She is a transgender, anarchist hacktivist who’s now the Digital Minister without portfolio in the DPP and she’s always the smartest person in the room. She’s amazing.

Margaret Farley:
She’s self-educated, dropped out of school, learned everything on the internet when Silicon Valley made a lot of money and now is in the government committed to radical transparency. Every decision is a consensus decision. She doesn’t do anything top down. I was hoping she’d be here today. Sometimes she beams in by hologram, which is really cool and that she shrink it down to kid size when she’s speaking at schools. Maybe here she’d be like really big.

Margaret Farley:
And she also espouses something which I think is a really unique strategy called troll hugging, which is she can see, she has a notification bot when people are talking about her on social media. And if they’re saying things that she wants to confront, she’ll pop up in the chat in a little video message and say, “Is there something that you’d like to discuss?” And it’s completely disarming and very effective because she can engage with people and actually say, why are you saying this? What are your beliefs? Why? And she says, “Sometimes people just want attention. They just need a hug” and so she calls it troll hugging. Anyway. She says, “When SARS came to Taiwan, you couldn’t negotiate with the virus. You can’t stop it at the border. All you can do is educate people on not to get the virus and to inoculate them”. And so her attitude is that’s what Taiwan needs to do, educate people. And that’s been shown to be very effective because there are technological tools, which I’ll show you, but it’s always a cat and mouse game. So the best thing is to sharpen people’s tools of critical thinking and we all get fooled. But at least you can get people to ask questions.

Margaret Farley:
So this is what is happening now in Taiwan to deal with this information. Actually tomorrow, there are amendments being considered. There are proposals to expand existing laws, but there has been a clamor by some politicians to make digital disinformation a criminal offense. And it’s sparked a big debate in Taiwan, but people were afraid that it would lead to a crackdown on freedom of speech. So it’s a slippery slope. And so the government has decided to expand existing laws for fraud, like will preventing social chaos, but not start anything new, not introduce any new legislation. Media literacy we talked about, they’re already started in the schools.

Margaret Farley:
A rapid response by government as an absence of good information is speculation. So the government is trying really hard to get responses to questions out, same day. And the last, Audrey Tang’s big thing, critical thinking and empathy to teach people to question their information, to evaluate it critically and also to expose themselves to different viewpoints so they can understand where people are coming from and what’s a reasonable claim. Not to mention the troll hugging. That’d be great if you could all do that. So there are these different fact checking centers that are popping up in Taiwan. One just started this year. It’s the government Real-Time News Clarification agency. It’s a really good effort. They are committed to answering questions on the same day so journalists can have it by deadline, but it’s really hard to find. You have to go to the executive one page and sort of go through, it’s only in Chinese and it’d be better if it were point to point, if they could find a rumor on Facebook and respond to that rumor right there where they found it on Facebook or online or on television. That would be more effective. There’s the Taiwan FactCheck Center. They are very diligent. It’s university based, but actually run out of a small apartment by a handful of people.

Margaret Farley:
And then this is called gov-dot-zero or g0v who’s created this bot and it’s a good bot as opposed to the evil bots. out there. And it was started by one of the developers who was tired of responding to his grandmother who was always posting, spreading conspiracy theories and rumors online, the LINE app, to all of her friends and all of our relatives several times a day. And because of the hierarchy of respect in Taiwan, he couldn’t keep saying, “Grandma, that’s ridiculous. It’s not true. Don’t spread it”. And so he and his friends developed a bot and said, “Just friend a bot and send the piece of information to the bot. And the bot will say, ‘this is true, this is not true”. And again, instant response and pretty much essentially the thought before you send it to your friends. And so if you friend the bot, it’s called Cofacts, they’re hoping to stop the spread right at the beginning.

Margaret Farley:
Here’s another tool that developed called News Helper and it’s a browser extension. It’s the same g0v. And you can download that and put it on your browser and he’ll pop up when you encounter a story, and give you a little warning… That it’s been disputed over, that it’s been proved to be a rumor. These are great ideas. They rely on volunteers right now and so, it’s hard to keep up with the flow. So, you know great in concept, could be better in execution. This is what it looks like online. You can actually go to the site and see what the latest rumors are. That’s the Taiwan Fact Center this is the executive ones, Real-Time Clarification page.

Margaret Farley:
But even Premier Lai saying that the government is not doing a good enough job… And he blames fake news for skewing the elections. Jessica also touched on this, they’re trying to teach people how to recognize the telltales that may lend disinformation. Things like looking out for the simplified characters that aren’t used Taiwan, making it clear that it came from someplace else. But the disinformation is becoming more and more sophisticated. It looks more like native content and now we’re dealing with things like deep fake. Does anybody seen the video of Obama whose mouth has been manipulated to say words that he would never say Jordan Peele in this great public service announcement. I sometimes have it, but it won’t play. You should look it up on YouTube. Just Google Obama deep fake and Jordan Peele is talking and saying, and the words are coming out of Obama’s mouth. It looks pretty convincing. And he says things that Obama would never say like, “Stay woke bitches”.

Margaret Farley:
That’s really effective. It shows what’s coming. It’s out there. It’s not widely used. It’s not completely sophisticated yet. But in five years I think we’re all going to be asking whether we can believe our eyes. So the big push right now is to teach people to ask questions. Who’s telling me this? What’s the purpose? Where does it come from? Do other sites have the story? Even little kids can ask, who says? How do you know that? It’s worth teaching people to ask. And we were also talking about how to be critical without becoming cynical and not believing anything. That if you stop and consider before you share where it’s coming from, why they might want you to believe that, who benefits from the spread of this information. It can go a long way to send me the flow of disinformation. So this is what I tell the students, like these are all great tools for you, but the best tool is your brain and your finger. So before you press the button to share, maybe just hand in your pockets, sit on your finger and think before you share.

Benjamin Hopkins:
All right. Thank you Maggie and Jessica. We’ve got plenty of time for questions and I’m sure we have a room full of questions to come. I’m going to use the prerogative of the chair and actually ask one to get the ball rolling. You both talked a little bit about the penetration of social media in Taiwanese society. I wonder, do you know anything about the demographics? So Maggie, for instance, you were talking about a grandmother that keeps spreading these fake news, are we seeing, for instance, younger people are less likely to be on Twitter and Facebook or that there are certain platforms that certain demographic groups are prone to?

Margaret Farley:
I think in terms of PDT, most of the users are college or university level graduate students and people that started using the platform when it first started, so young adults. Except for that one. I think there’s less older people on it.

Jessica Drun:
Facebook has remarkably high penetration in Taiwan. Almost everybody’s on Facebook of all demographics, like in the United States, it’s, it’s skewed towards older people now as younger people drift towards newer and more visual things. But in Taiwan, in a lot of countries, Facebook is the internet. LINE also, I think it’s 80% penetration on Facebook. And about 60% of people get news from Facebook and 30% of people don’t believe all the news that they get on Facebook. And LINE has penetration that’s almost as high as Facebook. If you’re using Facebook, you’re also probably using LINE. And the thing that surprised me is how many older people are on LINE. It’s very easy to share, to make groups. And there are also closed groups like WhatsApp, if you know WhatsApp.

Jessica Drun:
And so it’s a little bit harder to penetrate and see where people are getting their information, where the information is coming from. The information is often divorced from context. So you don’t know the source, but packed in a way that is really exciting and easy to share.

Benjamin Hopkins:
So I open to the floor for questions. Yes. Right.

Question 1:
Leo Bosner retired government worker, federal employee. Thank you. Leo Bosner, retired federal employee. With regard to the Taiwan government trying to get out there quickly and refute some of these things. To what extent do the Taiwan government agencies and ministries have strong public information offices and have people in there who have, let’s say, journalism degrees or journalism backgrounds? Or are they simply civil servants trying to struggle with this thing?

Jessica Drun:
I think the government is very serious and trying to grapple with this. And the realtime clarification thing is, is admirable and, and I think that it has a lot of support behind it. They do have younger civil servants who are very adept at social media guiding it and getting things out. The problem is you have the official response, but can an average person find it and does the average person believe it? A lot of people just discount it saying, Oh, well that’s just the government propaganda, or that’s, that’s the government’s position.

Jessica Drun:
So that’s part of the problem. The other problem is that it’s just not widespread enough. It’s not easily find-able. I mean they’re always just playing catch up and by the time it comes to their attention, the rumor might’ve already have been, you know, a week old and spread to all of the social media outlets.

Question 2:
So hi, I think we just, in listening to your presentation. I was wondered if it’s like based basically like going back to the basics when it comes to understanding and handling media, you know, news, social media. I mean like I remember, you know since you were a kid were told if you studying reading, you read that all the editorial information because the way you learn about the author, the source, the leaning of the source to kind of be able to discern about the information. And I wonder how much of that do we do now because we get so much information at such a fast pace for so many sources.

Question 2:
So I mean what would be your take on that in terms of minimal standards of dealing with that, you know?

Jessica Drun:
Yeah, absolutely. What you’re saying is that this is really a matter of critical thinking. And in history classes, students are taught to read different viewpoints of history and to examine who wrote the history. Is it the history of the victors? Whose voices are we hearing? Whose voices are we not hearing? And those sorts of questions are questions we can bring to any bit of information. Whose voices are we hearing? Whose voices are we not hearing? Why are they telling this story? Why do they want us to believe it?

Jessica Drun:
I think that schools here can do a better job of teaching that critical thinking just across the board. But media literacy in particular, because media has extra challenges because you don’t know the source or it can be a grain of truth that’s manipulated or exaggerated. And so our traditional critical thinking skills sometimes are not enough when we’re dealing with these new forms of information that are coming so quickly and from all over the place.

Question 3:
Okay. My name is Dr. [Inaudible 00:06:19]. So you talked a lot about disinformation coming from China in real world it is a two way street. It’s going the other way as well. Now the bigger issue here is that the Chinese have the great firewall and getting information in as we, it’s very well widely known getting information in to the population general average population. It’s not as easy as it is for China to push information into Taiwan. So what are the obstacles faced by state bodies using this information and what types of dissipation occurs? I mean you must have evidence of that as well. Over to you.

Jessica Drun:
What I would really like to, I agree with you that the disinformation is a two way street but China has more government controls and we can talk all day about that as well. And I would like to know at the cybersecurity level what the Taiwanese government is able to do. I mean it’s something that they don’t talk about publicly, but I thought just that statistic that they’re fending off 2,500 attacks a day that they know about is significant. The disinformation can be anything from a cyber attack on a government computer network to this, more the softer cultural based muddying of the information waters. But now they’re calling it sharp power instead of soft power, right? Instead of cultural influence. I mean because it’s so micro-targeted.

Jessica Drun:
Tell me if I’m answering your question. I’m sorry.

Question 3:
All right. I wrote about this strategic communication a while back. We wrote an article about how you target specific groups of people, their demographics and you tailor your message, which is the same message. You’re telling according to the particular group that you needed to do that to. And my suspicion is that they utilize easy access into different types of social media in China. Not the general ones that they use maybe in Taiwan, but to get the information across. It’s just what the controls are in China, for example. [inaudible 00:08:58] I think a lot of people interested in that here anyways.

Jessica Drun:
How to circumvent the controls in China?

Question 3:
Right, it’s not that difficult, whenever I’m there I use a VPN. I can do anything I want.

Jessica Drun:
Right. Right.

Question 3:
They get shut down very quickly.

Jessica Drun:
That’s true. And as a foreign correspondent, I was based in China for several years. It was earlier in the technology was cruder, but VPNs were the easy way to get around. And you’re right, it was a constant cat and mouse game. You just, you’d identify a VPN, use it until it gets shut down. You identify another one. People use codes people use… I used to get invitations to coffee over electronic greeting cards that you have to type in a code to enter, from dissidents who didn’t want the information to be monitored.

Jessica Drun:
Anytime I tried to do use anything encrypted on my computer, our network would suddenly stop working. So there are all sorts of ways. I have a friend who has millions of followers on WeChat and found that the government was able to isolate groups of his followers. And so the message, something he would tweet or put on WeChat would go out to certain groups and not get delivered to other groups. So the controls are very sophisticated but so were the users and so it’s just a constant game of cat and mouse.

Gerrit van der Wees:
I am Gerrit van der Wees former editor of Taiwan communique. Thanks very much for the excellent presentations, both of you. Both of you touched on the issue of how to distinguish this information from real facts and that’s getting to be increasingly difficult. One example, case in point is the election of the mayor in Kaohsiung. Some people say that he was elected because the Chinese media hyped up his candidacy. Therefore he got more and more of a following. Others say, well, he’s a real populus. And he said, I’ll make Kaohsiung great again. And people believed him. So how do you move forward in that kind of situation?

Jessica Drun:
Maybe [inaudible 00:11:24] take this one.

Margaret Farley:
It’s hard to measure exactly the amount of influence this information had on a candidate election. Right. There’s just so many other factors in play, you know, given those a local election personality played a big role. Also just natural dynamics in a democratic system like Kaohsiung was held by the DPP for a significantly long time. So I think it’s hard to extract exactly how much of an impact these factors played in. But in the end it did result in his election and China got what it wanted. So it is important for the government and other democracies to look at how to minimize impact and how to counteract this information.

Jessica Drun:
Yeah, I think that’s a great answer. It’s clear that there were bread and butter issues and, and I think that it’s convenient sometimes for politicians to have fake news to point to. Hillary blames the Russians. And in Kaohsiung, they can say it’s because of the mainland. I mean even the Premier is saying our government isn’t good enough at stopping fake news. And that’s why it was part of a memo about why they lost the election. And so I’m pointing the finger there. But what’s clear is that the makers of disinformation are able to identify whether they’re internal actors or external actors, are able to identify tensions within the country and then use their tools to inflame those tensions and widen this.

Question 5:
Ah, thank you for the very interesting presentations. My name’s [inaudible 00:13:20], Fulbright visiting scholar, Sigur center and also originally, a journalism professor in Japan. How do you say, well, what’s your assessment though of the short term goals, Chinese cyber disinformation operation? Create hunger, create confusion of what’s next. So what’s your strategy from your assessment?

Margaret Farley:
Oh, I think in the particular case of the local elections, it was to help KMT candidates so that they have more opportunities to do, across level cost exchanges with China, and then give them the opportunity to demonstrate their ability to govern and help the KMT with the 2020 elections at the national level.

Jessica Drun:
Yeah, it’s been said that this was, the local elections were a trial run for the presidential elections, but the longterm goal is to, to undermine Taiwan’s aspirations to be autonomous, to have a well-working democracy, and to be sort of a demonstration or an example for the mainland. And the ultimate goal is reunification.

Question 6:
Hi, my name’s [inaudible 00:14:43] . I’m a senior studying Asian studies and Chinese here at GW. My question is, so there’s a large basket of issues such as the recognition or the pressures that China is putting on other countries to withdraw the recognition of Taiwan. They’re considered broadly as a course of action against Tsai Ing-wen. I guess my question, it might be a bit speculative. Do you see this sort of disinformation campaign as something that’s specific as a course of action against Tsai Ing-wen or a new normal that would continue under a KMT government at the national level of post 2020?

Jessica Drun:
I think that, I’m just saying Wen was elected on a platform of Taiwan autonomy. Even pro independence that she became a particular target and a KMT official who wanted to keep things status quo or even become closer to China would not become that sort of target. But if you’re looking at the longterm goals of ultimate reunification, then you could argue that any Taiwanese leader who doesn’t actively aim for that is also a target.

Margaret Farley:
I would say that social media wasn’t really on China’s radar until the 2014, 2016 elections. So we don’t have prior examples of them potentially using disinformation against KMT candidates. I think what will be interesting to see is if there’s factions in the KMT, if there’s any disinformation out, pitching, say the local factions, nurses, the more pro China factions. We saw this more in state media and not in fake news, but that China was supporting KMT members like [inaudible 00:16:39] who over people of the local faction, like the current chair of [inaudible 00:16:44].

Question 7:
Oh Henry Hector retired government. We have a Voice of America, I presumed as a radio Taiwan and I wonder about the quality of their broadcast as far as this information or some problem areas it may have detected.

Jessica Drun:
Does anybody here listen to The Voice of America?

Voice of America speaker:
We are not radio Taiwan. Voice of America is US government right.

Question 7:
There is a radio Taiwan, though?

Voice of America speaker:
Yeah, so yeah, he’s talking about radio Taiwan.

Jessica Drun:
Yeah, no, she’s, she’s just distinguishing between radio Taiwan and Voice of America, which is under the BBG. But you’re asking whether Voice of America is viewed as disinformation in Taiwan or whether how it counters disinformation?

Question 7:
I wondered what your feelings are on radio Taiwan as far as the information that they’re supplying.

Jessica Drun:
I can’t speak to that because I don’t live in Taiwan and I don’t hear it

Margaret Farley:
I can’t speak to it.

Jessica Drun:
Good. Can anybody in the room? Yeah.

DPP speaker:
Unlike [inaudible 00:18:02] I work for the DPP here in Washington. You can go onto the website RTI, and check it out. I think they probably presume, and I, when I read it, it’s like AP or something. It’s pretty straight forward. I don’t think it’s propaganda in the same sense of disinformation is my, my opinion. But you could go check it out.

Benjamin Hopkins:
All right. I’m cognizant that we have a short break for lunch where we’ll be reconvened for our second panel at one o’clock so I’ll go ahead and wrap this up. I would just reflect as a historian in the 19th century. The irony of the CCP putting the arms of the people’s Republic of China in support of the KMT in local elections must have Mao turning in his grave.

Deepa Ollapally:
All right, well everybody welcome back. I’m Deepa Ollapally, the associate director of the Sigur Center. And I think, gotten off to a rousing start with the first panel. And hopefully you’re fueled up even more after the lunch. And I know some of you have not finished, but please go ahead and carry on while we start the panel here. This morning, we heard about a emerging topic, the new social media and some of the things that we really don’t understand. So, I learned a lot. I’m speaking for myself on that. Now I’m very happy to turn to our second panel, which is looking at the economic and business and trade relations between Taiwan and the United States. It’s really how to strengthen that relationship. It’s slightly older topic, but an enduring one and a very important one. Particularly with the Trump administration where the onus I think often falls on some of the other countries to prove why they’re such economically attractive to The United States.

Deepa Ollapally:
So, and Taiwan is one of these countries that like everyone else has to do with that. We’ve got two terrific panelists to lead us through this discussions. And I’ll just introduce both of them and then turn it over to them. We’ll start with Riley Walters, who comes to us from the Heritage Foundation and he’s a policy analyst there. He focuses on Northeast Asia and political economy and as we were talking that, most analysts in Washington focus on the security of military aspects of the region. So, it’s wonderful to have someone here who actually knows a deeper element of economics, which I think we don’t do enough of. He has been writing quite a bit. Recently on this specific topic. Which is why I really wanted to have him here. Before joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a Penn Kemble Fellow with the National Endowment for Democracy. He’s also held the George C. Marshall fellowship with the Heritage Foundation.

Deepa Ollapally:
And he’ll start us off. And joining him is Rupert Hammond-Chambers. Who probably doesn’t need too much introduction to this group. We’re welcoming him back for an event here. He is the President of the Taiwan-US Business Council. And he has been in that position as president since 2000. I guess there’s no term limit as long as he’s doing such an outstanding job, right?

Speaker 2:
It’s a good job.

Deepa Ollapally:
He’s also the Managing Director on Taiwan for the Bower Group Asia. And he has been focused on really designing ways in which companies can strategize to do more business in Taiwan-US interactions. And so with that, I will turn it over to Riley to start us off and then we’ll turn to Rupert after that. Thank you.

Riley Waters:
Thank you. Thank you for the introduction. There we go. Yeah. Thank you for the introduction. All right, so when we look at the US-Asia economic relationship these days, this week, last week, there are a lot of moving pieces. And so things tend to be sort of lost in the noise. Obviously when we’re talking about US-Asia economic relations, the biggest piece of this, is the ongoing US-China trade dispute. It seems like almost every month there’s some new speculation over what the Trump administration’s strategy is for sort of reconfiguring the US-China relationship. Whether there’s some new sort of grand strategy that is an amalgamation of trade and security. People are unsure of the restrictions that might be placed on bilateral trade and investment. To what degree and for how long. And we see a lot of this uncertainty in the markets and currency volatility over the past several months.

Riley Waters:
Right now, the US and China have entered the early stages of this 90 day period for negotiations toward ending the trade dispute. And by the end of which will have some sort of deal. A deal to remove some of the bilateral tariffs on both sides. And to sort of come to an agreement to amend what the Trump administration has seen as years of unfair trade and just unfair practices mostly on the China side obviously. It’s unrealistic to expect though that with now less than 80 days, that anything of significance, something that will completely revolutionize the Chinese economy away from this state driven economy, is possible. But, as USTR [inaudible 00:05:36] has alluded to on Sunday, one thing that they will accept to a certain degree is even just a promise to reform. So, there is steps in the right direction in the US-China relationship. But it’s unrealistic for the US to continue to pursue unilateral trade action against China and expect as robust reform of China, as it could achieve without our international partners.

Riley Waters:
Obviously, the US shouldn’t be solely focused on reforming China and China’s economy and the role its government has in its economy. The Indo-Pacific strategy of the Trump administration is more than just… It’s not necessarily a China containment initiative. Trade and economics is a huge part of this free Indo-Pacific strategy. And this is where partners like Taiwan are in the relationship. With Taiwan playing an important role. Like most countries in the region though, Taiwan has become more economically dependent on China, trade with China investment in China. Arguably more than some in fact. Almost 25% of China’s total trade is with China. And it doesn’t help that Taiwan, again like most other developed countries, is starved for growth. Looking for something more than just 2%+ GDP growth next year. The relationship that Taiwan has with China obviously isn’t the same that the US has with China, that the US has with other countries like Japan or China has with Japan.

Riley Waters:
Slowly but surely, Beijing has… I’m sure they’ve talked about this in previous panels and as most of you know, Beijing has aspirations of bringing sort of Taiwan back under its arm. And slowly but surely Beijing is trying to make it harder for Taiwanese to actually engage in economic activity with third parties. While at the same time, attempting to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese businesses and individuals. So, over the last couple of years we’ve seen the effects of China’s economic leverage, both of private companies and countries alike. I don’t think anything stands out more though than the effect that it has had on intergovernmental relations. Taiwan has been left out of some significant trade deals, at least, to a large degree in the Asia Pacific and all signs tend to point to China on this. The TPP or new TPP, Comprehensive Progressive Agreement [with the 00:08:24] Trans-Pacific Partnership [inaudible 00:08:25], will go into effect by the end of this month.

Riley Waters:
Taiwan, while it wants to be a part of it, is not a part of it. The RCEP or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which our set partners want to agree to by the end of next year. Again, Taiwan wants to be a part of, but it’s not necessarily. For TPP, it’s countries don’t want to promote Taiwan’s ascension and anger Beijing. Meanwhile, Beijing though it’s a significant member of our set, isn’t necessarily backing Taiwan’s ascension into [inaudible 00:08:59] and into the RCEP. Bilaterally, Taiwan and China do have a trade agreement. However, rightly questioning Beijing’s true intent when this deal was signed, almost eight years ago, concerns about the sustainability, transparency and of course a breakdown in contact between the two sides, meant that this deal never went into full effect.

Riley Waters:
Instead, Beijing has shifted over the past several years. Not just with Taiwan obviously, with other countries. We can go into that maybe more in the QA. But, Beijing itself and provincial governments too are now pursuing new initiatives to sort of incentivize Taiwanese people and investment in businesses in Mainland China to sort of spread this bilateral leverage growth and leverage.

Riley Waters:
Not too long ago, the Taiwan Affairs office of China State council, initiated a program commonly referred to as the 31 Initiatives. On the surface, these measures range from encouraging economic cooperation, social cohesion, measures to increase investment and give benefits to families who wish to work in China. For example, Taiwan funded enterprises are granted land use in the same way as Mainland enterprises. Taiwanese citizens are also eligible for various cultural awards. And many of the local provinces have also, initiated similar initiatives, measures similar to what the state has directed. Fujian province, Jiangxi, Shandong, they all have similar measures to incentivize Taiwanese investment in those specific areas. Some of them are a little bit more expensive. The Taiwan Affairs office is 31 measures, Fujian is 60 measures. But they’re all similar to a degree. Given Taiwan’s place as a leading manufacturer such as in the production of semiconductors, many of the measures… Specifically at the beginning itself of these measures, the main focus has been Made in China 2025.

Riley Waters:
Despite, the news that you might’ve read this morning or tweets that you might believe in whether China will continue to pursue its Made in China 2025 initiative, I still believe that Beijing wants to become the world’s leader in developing advanced manufacturing technologies. And again, it’s why Beijing’s… These 31 measures continue to have Made in China 2025 as a top… The top of the lesson in that regard comes to sort of incentivizing Taiwanese investment. Maybe we’ll see next year if China reforms its Made in China 2025, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll necessarily have ripple effects down to these other measures which already do take China 2025 into the mix. So, that’s sort of the Taiwan-China economic relationship.

Riley Waters:
But what about the US Taiwan relationship? If you’re not familiar, Heritage has been very supportive of the US-Taiwan relationship. And hopefully, I can continue this today as we have for the past 30 years. In 2017, Taiwan was our largest trading partner. 87 billion worth of cross border trade in services and goods, over a billion in cross border investment. In 2016, US companies made over 4.5 billion in IP Revenue Licensing in Taiwan. According to some numbers, Taiwan investment makes up more than 322,000 American jobs. And that’s just, if we’re looking at exports. This doesn’t include the jobs that are supported through imports.

Riley Waters:
And when we look at economic relationships, one thing that the Heritage Foundation has always been advocating for, is economic freedom. Countries that tend to have greater economic freedom, tend to have greater economic prosperity. Taiwan is actually more economically free than the United States by our measures. If we rank the countries, zero being not free, I think North Korea is the lowest at five. And we rank 100 as the most free. No country is most free at 100%. I think the highest is Hong Kong. Taiwan ranks 13th with a 76.6. The United States rate ranks 18th with a 75.7. The aggregate numbers, the 75 and the 76, while those are short, it’s still enough that several countries can squeeze in between. We can go into this a little bit more in QA as well, but I encourage you to go on our website. We cover Index of Economic Freedom. So I wanted to plug that there.

Riley Waters:
When it comes to deals that the United States and Taiwan has, we do have a trade deal of sorts. It’s our trade and investment framework agreement that we had with Taiwan that we’ve had for over 15 years now. But we haven’t had a meeting of this in the past two years. Not since October 2016. And we’re probably not going to happen before the end of this year. This is worrisome, especially for people who look at the broader US-Taiwan relationship going forward. Certainly, there are a lot of outstanding issues that folks from the USTR like to bring up regarding beef and pork imports.

Riley Waters:
This has been a common thing though for many number of years. So one thing that we would like to pursue or at least what the Heritage Foundation has been talking about doing is, advocating for something a little bit more with the US-Taiwan relationship. What we would like to see, is a high level economic dialogue with Taiwan. This is similar to what the US and Japan have had. Talking about, sectoral reform, trade investment is an aspect of that. Certainly talking about the beef and pork import restrictions, but also the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. These are things that could be focused on the onset. But really it should be more about cooperation going forward. Areas for cooperation, areas for development, digital economy in Southeast Asia is a part of Taiwan’s Southbound policy, new Southbound policy. And of course within the Indo-Pacific strategy framework.

Riley Waters:
These are areas for benefit. What it would look like is co-led by USTR in commerce. The added benefit of this of course is the high level that it would bring to the US-Taiwan relationship at a secretarial level. Which would be historical to say the least. Obviously, there are some hurdles with this. I say obviously but, folks within the USTR do you have this sort of institutional barrier to, as I mentioned to continue with the TIFA talks or the Trade Investment Framework Agreements [inaudible 00:16:45], TIFA. As well as expanding anything beyond that. You also have a US Trade Representative, who again, at least for the next 80 days and definitely more, is going to be busy negotiating new trade deals with a Congress, a specifically a house that is no longer necessarily aligned with the party of the president. So Robert Lighthizer is going to have a very busy next year. And adding more to this makes it difficult. But that doesn’t make it any less important than the least. Secretary of Commerce can have a role in this bilateral or co-lead agreement.

Riley Waters:
So, going forward, I think it’s important that both the United States and Taiwan continue to pursue economic freedom as this, we like to grade it. These are rule of law, government size, monetary freedom, fiscal freedom, trade freedoms, things like that. It doesn’t always necessarily have to be on a bilateral basis. We both move in agreements. Though we would like to see free trade agreements with Taiwan. This is something that’s 30 years overdue. But unilateral action too can sort of help diverge some of the threats that we see growing from China, china’s economic leverage. Even though I think there will be some trade offs in the near future between the leverage it has and the weakening of its economy, but also that other economies, other governments will want to play a role in sort of integrating both US and Taiwan sort of economic development in the region. And with that, I want to stop.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I would like to, excuse me, echo Riley’s shameless plug for the index for economic freedom. It’s an extraordinary publication is really unique and if you haven’t seen it, I would really recommend… You’re here so you’d have an active interest in the subject matter. You should check it out. It’s a really unique piece of work and it’s extremely useful. I use my copies all the time. It’s great in the moment as well as having back copies used as a resource. Anyway, I would concur with that but thank you Deepa, Richard, The Sigur Center, for your willingness to host today’s event. I wonder what Gaston Sigur would make of all of what’s going on with China at the moment. He would certainly be well equipped in my view to offer counsel to any president sitting in the white house at this juncture given his expertise and the strength of the team that he worked with.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Jim Lilley and David Lotz and Wolfowitz and Armitage others who made up the core of George Schultz Asia team. I believe that Gaston Sigur would certainly be a leader in promoting the interests of the United States in this present situation, if he were alive today. I would like to just indulge for a second here. Over the past weekend we lost a really great thinker and leader in U.S. Taiwan or in Taiwan’s economic past, John Pingal or PK John, was a instrumental in the 1980s and nineties in Taiwan’s economic miracles, 6% plus growth year on year. PK to those of us who had the privilege of knowing him was an economic central planner. Not in the Trotsky sense of it, but he played an extraordinary role in leadership along with people like [inaudible 00:02:01] and and of course Vincent Chow over that period in charting Taiwan’s economic miracle over 20 years and his passing was a great loss. He did a tremendous job for his country and he was very good friend of the United States. So rest in peace PK.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
You know, we’ve touched on… I’m going to try and fold into some of the activities of the U.S. business community, participate in and respect to some of the things that Riley has mentioned and deep pointed to as well. Trade. U.S. Taiwan trade policies is honestly like being Bill Murray in Groundhog day. It just seems like we’ve been stuck in the same day for years. We have been stuck in the same day for years. It is incredibly frustrating that we have failed today to elevate the relationship out of parochial differences and looked at it more through the prism of the strategic interests of both countries, which by the way are embedded in the Taiwan Relations Act. Our USTR’s focus on agricultural issues even if we accept them, the face of it, that they stand on solid ground, it’s the position of the U.S. Taiwan business council that they are now pursuing a failed strategy that we’d been at this for a decade and that their approach has manifestly failed.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
So how do you satisfy the requirement to change the agricultural policies of Taiwan that allow for U.S. produce based on science to flow into the Taiwan market? Solve that issue and as a consequence then broaden out the potential for a far broader and robust conversation. For our membership, we want to see that happen in the worst way. Well, our membership is a broad cross section of the U.S. economy and U.S. economic engagement. Our membership is heavily vested in the supply chain so a lot of tech, both principals systems integrators as well as supply chain companies. And those companies want to see Taiwan grow, they want to see the supply chain operate smoothly and they also want to ensure that they can operate within the Taiwan market, which as a market unto itself is also significant. Right? Taiwan is one of the world’s largest economies, it’s a top 20 economy. It’s a top 10 trading partner with the United States and that belies its significance in the supply chain.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Access to the Taiwan market is essential and these parochial matters are getting in the way of opening up sectors like financial services where I believe U.S. companies could thrive. You know the key players on either side on the Taiwan side, the trade and economic leadership team, with trade as the sort of leader here. It’s president Tsai herself. She is of course a trade negotiator first and foremost. Minister foot with our portfolio, John Dung, some of you know him, I’m looking around the room, know John personally. Vice Minister for economic affairs, Wang Mei-hua and then underneath a Mei-hua is of course the DG for the Bureau of foreign trade, Jenny Young. Those full people make up the core of Taiwan’s economic team and frankly they are well class trade negotiators.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I’m not just saying that because I’m found of them personally. They are expert at what they do. But it’s a bit like having the… To use a sport’s metaphor, it’s a bit like the Boston Lennar Olympics and having the U.S. well cup team there with Michael Jordan and Charles Bhakti and all those guys and not letting them play. Right? What’s the point in having them if you don’t let them play? Taiwan could be a significant player in global bilateral, multilateral trade engagement if it were given an opportunity to do. It could be a leader if countries were prepared to see the opportunity inherent in engaging Taiwan and trade liberalization and of course separate of the challenge that Taiwan faces in engaging, look what Taiwan’s doing anyway. They are a leader. Think what they could do if they were given an opportunity to lead in some of these economic opportunities.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
On the U.S. side, excuse me, the U.S. side, the trade relationship has almost zero senior leadership instead of this driven primarily by working level officials at USDA state and AIT, good people all, ogre people. However, in the absence of senior political capital to invest in the relationship, they don’t have the opportunity to argue on the strategic level. Well to make a case for more and frankly it’s not their job to argue the strategic importance of the economic engagement. That is the job of people further up the decision making chain. So we’re stuck here until in my view, we get leadership.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I do believe it’s possible with Mr. Trump and his colleagues, we really have a unique opportunity. Mr. Bolton, Mr. Pompeo to name but two outside of the traditional defense and potentially still well when he finally gets in at an EAP. These personalities could play an important role in moving us beyond this position that we have and they will have robust support from the organization that I represent and I don’t want to put words in Bill Foreman and Am Champ Taipei’s. Bill and his colleagues who do excellent work, they too have been outspoken in their interest in seeing a free slash fair trade agreement.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
On the private sector side, the tech supply chain is driving the relationship. Our main technology companies continue to rely heavily on Taiwan with Taiwan companies doing much of the system’s integration in China. You all know that. I’m looking around. You guys are aware of what’s happening within the supply chain and the critical role that companies like Hanai play in integrating Apple project products in China. Integrating right? There Hanai doesn’t make all those products, right? They integrate all the different pieces that go into our phones and iPads and all the goodies that we buy at Christmas and Hanukkah, those sorts of times. But nevertheless, Taiwan is a key player in that. That of course is the shift in the supply chain as we see it right now, is accelerating. It started prior to Mr. Trump, frankly with the rising costs on the Eastern side of China and along the Eastern Sea borders.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Cost started to rise. Companies started to move, started to move inland more in China, and you also started to see a stronger break towards Southeast Asia. Vietnam is an excellent example here, but the geo strategic tensions that have arisen since president Trump responded in my view, I absolutely reject the notion that this is Trump’s trade war. That’s nonsense in my view. It’s not Trump’s trade war. We have been attacked in my view. The predatory practices of the PRC required our response and if Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump had won, well Mrs. Clinton won, I still believe at some level we would be dealing at this moment with that predatory behavior. So we have a government at the moment here in the United States that is attempting to address that.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I worry about Riley’s comment to a wee bit, that he thinks that things will be sorted out in 90 days. I hope not because I don’t believe that will mean…. If we accept what China puts forward in 90 days, I think we’re going to end up with a very poor deal because I do agree with Riley when he says that the structural issues that we’re dealing with in China aren’t going to be fixed in 90 days. This is far more systemic than that and frankly I’m highly suspicious of banner Chinese headlines about how much of this they’re going to buy and what they’re going to do over here. And two or three years later we find its pennies in the dollar.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
So I think this is… I think we’re in it for the long haul here and I actually believe that that Mr. Trump’s colleagues recognize that. That this is a heavy left and we’re going to be at it for a while because the most important thing for the national security interests of the United States that is inclusive of its economy and the companies within that economy, many of whom are members of the U.S. Taiwan business council, is it their intellectual property, their trade secrets, their ability to operate in the supply chain and have the critical technologies protected is essential. And so it represents an existential threat to their very existence.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
So I think we sort of worked through a bit. So we are seeing some shift in the supply chain. I’m not going to do your homework for you if you are, so please don’t ask me what the data is on, to give you all the specifics. You can see it right here in MOEA’s release data report and the ministry of economic affairs release data every month. But what we’ve seen basically is a shift in about 30 cents of every dollar away from China into Southeast Asia over the last two years for tracked investment. Taiwan tracked investment and in essence the analysis study that we have in house is it, what’s happening is you’ve got about 35 to 40 cents in the dollar still going into China. And what we attribute that to is constructed concrete facilities that are over that require new equipment, maybe a new building or two, but that it’s already established boots on the ground.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
The next 30 to 35 that was used to be flowing into China is now shifting away. That money might normally be expected to go further West or to some new facility. Now it’s going out of China. Now these Taiwan supply chain companies that are looking at Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, that’s where these guys are going. That part of the money is now shifting. So overall, you’ve got a shift where the majority of the money was flowing into China, let’s say 65 to 70 cents in the dollar. Now it’s 65 to 70 cents to the dollar flowing to somewhere else, right? And 35 to 40 cents of the dollar or 30 bath, let’s say a third of a dollar still flowing into China, so a significant change.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Again, I want to be clear, attributing it to two things. One, the rising cost for manufacturing in China is a function the fact that… Do you know what I mean?It’s getting more expensive to make things there, and two the geo strategic risk and the direction that the overall relationship between the U.S. and China and indeed the rest of the world and China is heading and the and the interest on the part of supply chain companies to shift and to balance that risk out a wee bit more than it has been.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Can I speak for a couple more minutes? Is that all right?

Speaker 2:
Yeah, go ahead.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
The IC industry of course dominates Taiwan’s geopolitical and economic leadership. Taiwan semiconductor is a monster and it will continue to be. It is run as well as any company in the world. I’ll never tire of saying that. Maurice Jong did an essential service to the fortunes and future of Taiwan. Political fortunes and future by building that company because it makes it an essential partner to the United States, given our reliance on IC production out of Taiwan for our own critical industries here in the United States.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
TSMC is right at the heart of that. A very good book that was actually written by a guy who worked for the semiconductor equipment manufacturing association called Silicon Shield. It came out about 25 years ago. I actually just reordered a copy since my walk about, but it stands the test of time and what it really gets to at its heart, is America’s reliance in Taiwan. Taiwan is a semiconductor manufacturer of critical chips for American products. Makes it an essential strategic partner. It’s not fully understood regrettably. We’re starting to try and wrap our arms around it. It would be a tragedy if we had a blockade or some sort of a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait and the supply chain got cut and we really came to understand how quickly our supply chain, our manufacturing lines would come to a Holt if Taiwan was cut off from the supply chain.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Look at how quickly ZTE came crashing down when it couldn’t get hold of its chips. It was days, days. That’s how well these inventories are managed. And ZTE’s obviously a Chinese example, but these things work both ways as I’m sure you’re all aware. Apple, Intel, Microsoft, Google, Cuoco, Micron, Corning, all these U.S. Tech companies as a matter of public record are hugely vested in Taiwan from a research and development and an entrepreneurial standpoint. Apple oversees a product, branded product you can buy, and then…But you’ve also got critical suppliers like Corning, they make the glass, Corning makes this glass, it’s called gorilla glass, right? Absolute leader, right? A lot of money to be made. They’re all there, they’re doing their work in cooperation with Taiwan.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
So let’s pivot a wee bit and just touch on what Deepa had asked. Taiwan’s digital future, what is Taiwan trying to do on the digital side?

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Taiwan’s digital nation and innovation economic development program. Say that five times fast. Running from 2017 to 2025 is well underway. To site, DPP government initiative it’s rather… it’s a bit more usefully known as Digi plus. So use that, I do. It’s designed to capitalize Taiwan’s evolution into a network nation with all of the commercial and personal transformation that, that implies. The goal for digi plus is to bring Taiwan economic activity in the digital economy to 200 billion plus by 2025 while increasing the broadband penetration to over 80% for digital lifestyle services and increasing speeds beyond two gigabytes. So over 90% of the country. So it’s ambitious. It certainly is ambitious. How’s it going to get there? Well, it’s going to require a dual headed approach. Obviously legislation from the Levi UN, and we saw some proactive movement and positive proactive movement in this past year from the LY with the financial technology development and innovation experimentation act again, say that five times fast. And the act for the recruitment and employment of young foreign professionals.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
One, FinTech. Taiwan could do an excellent job in FinTech and two, it’s critical but highly politicize this [inaudible 00:17:10] of managed immigration, right? To positively impact the pool of employees that Taiwan has time. Taiwan has… frankly, it’s an existential threat, Its demographic situation. The growth in people is just not significant enough. Immigration could be an important part of that if it’s appropriately managed and of course immigration has an important impact. It’s quantifiable on entrepreneurial-ism. The construction of new businesses. Again, if you get those policies right, you can create to Google, you can create other, obviously Google’s a massive example, but I think you get point that I’m making. In immigration… Again, managed immigration is an important positive role player in a country’s present and future economic environment.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
AIT, the American Institute of Taiwan and the National Development Council have been doing an excellent job too in cooperating on the digital economy. The U.S. global cities team challenge has also had an impact on Taiwan’s digital landscape by pushing to create a single platform for entrepreneurs, for technology firms and local governments to develop smart city solutions for tougher municipal problems. Taipei and Tai Jiang have already signed up. I don’t doubt that [inaudible 00:18:33] and the others will follow in time. It’s not, it doesn’t cost anything as far as I know, but I think importantly it creates a unified platform for these cities and municipal areas to assist entrepreneurs in constructing solutions for domestic local peoples.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
And then finally, the Asian Silicon Valley initiative, which many of you might know is part of Tsai Ing-wen’s five plus two and that’s really focused on innovation R and D, creating a robust startup ecosystem with entrepreneurs with access to funds, qualified employees and modern facilities. We haven’t heard as much about that of late, but nevertheless, it remains an important government policy.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
One concern I have and then I’m going to stop. The one concern I have relates to Taiwan’s connectivity with the rest of the world. Taiwan only has, as far as I’m aware of one undersea cable that connects it. One, it does some of its broadband through satellite, but that is an issue because the Chinese could do this very easily in a confrontation situation and Taiwan would be cut off from its principal broadband connection. From my understanding, CHT Jawan Telecom, whose responsibility it would be to lay another of these cables believes that it’s too expensive to lay more, but to me, this is a national security, and it should be elevated out of the parochial interests of the company into a broader debate on how to ensure that Taiwan in any situation, in all situations can retain connectivity and bandwidth it needs for peaceful evolution and God forbid anything that comes in underneath that. Thank you all very much.

Deepa Ollapally:
Both of you have laid out very clearly some of the attractiveness of Taiwan for the United States. Why the U.S. Should be deepen engagement economically with Taiwan. But if I were to, if you were to distill your several pieces of argumentation, what would be the best way for Taiwan to make case that United States at this point it should pay particular attention to Taiwan? Why it’s so attractive because this different distribution, I think it’s all about what is X country going to do for me? For the United States?

Riley Walters:
Yeah. I think, you know, it plays back into this Indo-Pacific strategy that the Trump administration is pursuing, right? It’s again, as I said earlier, it’s not just about competing with China. It’s about also assuring your alliances, making new trade partners in the Indo-Pacific region. And I think as Rupert very eloquently laid out, Taiwan is a big part of a U.S. Economic interests. If I could just, sort of in addition followup to something he said, I knew he was going to bring up capital flow, so I did bring some of those [crosstalk 00:01:18] bilateral investment across the streets had been decreasing. It’s probably fallen by about 50% at least Taiwan, again, investment in China over the last 10 years. But even if we look at just last year, so MOEA has the numbers for January through December this year. And if you compare it to the just 2017, so the whole year last year, FDI in Latin America is down almost 50%. FDI in Australia is down 90%. FDI in the United States doubled. So they’ve already invested over a 1.51 point 6 billion in the U.S. Compared to just last year alone. So, you know, I think some, it was Rupert who was alluding to, you know, there are companies and they’re already strategically realigning their supply chains because of some of the risks that China presents.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
[inaudible 00:02:10] If I were in charge, I would, these are going to be somewhat over political things, but I would say you buy as much U.S. Energy as I possibly could. Taiwan is building new LNG terminals. I would expedite that process Taiwan about how does energy problems anyway that we need to know a whole other panel and another hour to deal with that, but so I would certainly be buying as much U.S. Energy is as time would possibly could. And then the other thing I would point to is it an issue that we followed closely and it’s related to the IC industry, the United States trusted Foundry program. For those of you who don’t know what that is, trusted Foundry program is the program the United States uses for the procurement of classified chips for classified programs. We have some foundries here in the United States. They’re mostly low tech, low end.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Honeywell owns most of them, but there is a significant need for high-end investment at at least the 300 millimeter, 12 inch level here in the U.S. To partner with the Department of Defense and other agencies in the production of classified chips. Taiwan would be a perfect strategic partner here in the U.S. to handle that. Taiwan has a Foundry in the Pacific Northwest, but I, my counsel would be something more ambitious, maybe the purchase of the global foundries Foundry that’s for sale in the Albany area of New York, and or a completely new build by a Taiwan business. So a couple of thoughts.

Deepa Ollapally:
Okay. Memo to the U.S. Let me open it up for Q&A and if you don’t mind before you ask the question, just identify yourself.

Speaker 4:
Okay. I’m going to go here.

Speaker 5:
Thank you very much. My name is [inaudible] was trying to reveal news agency of Hong Kong. My question is for Mr. Rupert. What means being off the impact off the U.S. and China trade talks. All the U.S. Sales to Taiwan. I still remember it in October. You said it is possible there will be another round of on sale to Taiwan by the end of this year. But right now, we have 90 days negotiation between U.S. And China. What do any of these kinds of opportunities? The opportunity.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Thank you. You [inaudible 00:04:30] what I hope will be the only on sale question. But I don’t think there’s any thing to see. I don’t think there’s any impact at all. It is my view that we are now back to regular order for on sales. If the sale is a sale and if there isn’t, there isn’t, it’s not going to be impacted by U.S.-China economic tensions. Thankfully, it shouldn’t be either.

Speaker 7:
Leo [inaudible 00:04:58] a retired federal employee. Question for Mr. Walters on the U.S. political support for Taiwan. It seems to be a start to the Republican parties with the stronger supporter of Taiwan at least for the last maybe 20, 30 years or so. With the Democrats now controlling the house, what do you see as yet from the Democrat side? Will there be any changes do you think with the stuff going on in China they’ll be equally supportive in a bipartisan way, or what?

Riley Walters:
Yeah, that’s, you know, it’s difficult, especially since you know, the new Congress hasn’t even started yet. So you know, there’s, you know feeling or feeling around in the dark a little bit on you know, the future. I think as you alluded to, I think Congress is still very supportive of the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. I mean last Congress, they were very vocal about their civil war, both sides. And I think that can continue onto next year, the U.S.-China relationship, this might be a little bit more difficult. You know, certainly Democrats have their own critiques of the U.S.-China relationship and I think is where Democrats and Republicans are either going to butt heads or weren’t together some issues. They might, you know, some issues they might agree upon, some issues they might disagree upon, so.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
This side?

Speaker 5:
Go for it [inaudible]. So I want to kick it up a step and ask question more related to the geopolitical aspects. The U S Taiwan relationship is generally seen within the prism of what they would in China. Helps mend the relationships in today’s Sino-U.S. relations. Now I believe you probably would like a separation of that. What is the possibility of a separate relationship with Taiwan as a nation and recognize about the will. I mean realistically speaking, given the trajectory of China in the forthcoming future as well, is it actually possible or is the U.S.-Taiwan relationship also always going to be subset to the sign-up of PLC U.S. relationship? Both coming future…longterm?

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Yes. [inaudible] say yes. I’m going to say yes is my answer. There it’s golly, what a huge question. I subscribed to the notion that Taiwan is, the Republic of China is always already as a functioning state, right, is already a functioning state and as a practical matter, we already treat it as a country. Of course, there is nomenclature and an illegal apparatus that we wrap around that that makes different. Treating Taiwan as a subset of China is a choice and you can actually start to see within the U.S. Government some shifts in that because it has served the U.S. Poorly in doing so because quite reasonably, those people who are responsible for China to eat China as the preeminent issue in any question they take. And if they’re responsible for Taiwan, they will always defer to China. One of the things I hope we will see more of, and it’s happened in one department, I know it’s happening in another, we’ll see Taiwan be broken out of that dynamic within the U.S. government so that when Taiwan is considered as an issue or an issue impacting U.S.-Taiwan relations, it’s considered the person making that consideration at the assistant secretary level, is not responsible for China.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
That person is, excuse me, the deputy assistant secretary level is not responsible for China. They’re responsible for Taiwan and Southeast Asia- or Taiwan, Japan and Korea as opposed to Taiwan and China. It’s a small onset . Do I foresee a few, did you say a future?

Speaker 8:
When immediate media, intermediate, long term, given the way the China’s is moving forward and rising and given their increasing power.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Well yeah, but that doesn’t-

Speaker 8:
The relationship with U.S., is it going to change? And if it goes to work, the challenges is.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I think, well I feel as if what you’re inferring is that the only people that only, the only entity getting stronger is China, right? The U.S. Is getting stronger, Taiwan is getting stronger. It doesn’t, it’s not just China getting stronger and get stronger and stronger and stronger and all of that and the rest of us falling further and further behind. So I think, I think the ability of the United States to continue to project its interests as they relate to Taiwan is that and will remain. And I also think the reason for continuing to back Taiwan in the relationship actually is shifting away from a legacy parochial issue. As this gentleman pointed out in respect to the relationship with the Republican party, more towards what are the realities within the region at the moment?

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
What would it mean to have Taiwan as part of the people’s Republic of China? From a strategic standpoint, from a military standpoint, what message would we be sending to the rest of the region if we said we’re going to let Taiwan go, the rest of you, don’t worry. That’s not your fate. I think that would be a strategic disaster for the United States and its interests in the region. So it’s a hard question to ask. Yeah. We can maybe have a whiskey or a bearer ready. Really talk into it cause I, I don’t know. Anyway, please. Ready? Go ahead.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Question.

Speaker 9:
Hang on. Just, mic’s coming.

Deepa Ollapally:
Challenging with United, Jamie’s group, Taiwan. So some U.S. Officials and lawmakers claim that Huawei is a threat, to U.S. National security and as many Taiwanese people and companies use Huawei products, would Taiwan be a concern for the U S and if that’s the case, should Taiwan government banned the use of Huawei products? Thank you.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Okay [inaudible 00:10:43] who takes the easy question.

Riley Walters:
What did we just trade off? Actually, I believe the government of Taiwan just recently banned the procurement of Huawei and ZTE as well. I think in its government procurements. I mean, yeah, the United States has long seen Huawei and ZTE as a national security threats. I mean, the complaints alleging to Miss Mung’s the CFO of Huawei’s arrest over the couple of weekends ago. I mean, those were issues from, you know, at least a decade ago continuing, I think it was like 2009 to 2013. And the implications that they had, obviously those were for different national security reasons, but national security reasons nonetheless. You know, while you putting the Iranian sanction issues aside, there are still both espionage and cybersecurity concerns out there that, you know, not just the United States government of course has issues with, but other governments as well. And so as we’ve seen over the past couple months, and I think as we’re going to see moving forward, you know there’s going to be more of this hesitance and certainly restrictions on who can buy at least from the government point of view, who can buy these types of technologies.

Deepa Ollapally:
Any other thoughts or [inaudible 00:11:59]?

Russell:
All right, so what’s the shell with the global Taiwan Institute rubric? You left off with a very interesting idea, especially on the submarine cables and I wanted to give you an opportunity to sort of fill it off on that a little bit more. I think you, you pointed out that, you know, there was one case, a submarine cable that was sort of.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
That’s my understanding Russell, yeah.

Russell:
I believe there’s 11 cables that are actually connecting to Taiwan submarine cables connecting to four cables connecting to four cable manning stations in Taiwan. But you may be referencing the specific type of submarine cable. But you know, I certainly think that there isn’t ample room for cooperation between the United States and Taiwan and maintaining these critical, critical, I think critical infrastructure. Actually, if we get global internet because it just how much financial flows as well as information that traverses through these submarine cables and given Taiwan’s a strategic position in the mid-point of the first island chain and in the mid-Western Pacific, I think people don’t actually sort of appreciate that sort of geographic and position in Taiwan.

Russell:
And so I wonder, and most of this is all privately managed. So there’s certainly a part where Taiwan can play a very important one. I think it should be doing more [inaudible 00:13:10]. Maybe you can address the part where you see it. There are other opportunities where the United States and Taiwan can, or closer together with regards to the maintenance of these cables because they often do get disrupted. Where there’s, you know, a lot of fishing trawlers at inadvertently, but it can also be sabotaged too, as well. And that would not only be disruptive for Taiwan, but it’d be disruptive for regional conductivity, as well, so.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I think Russell, in this question that you’re raising and we’ll get down into, you know, what cables do was, but there the one bits of this I’d like to point out and this relates to the trusted Foundry program issue as well is I would like to see, and perhaps it’s taking place, I’m fully willing to have some U.S. Government officials say, well [inaudible 00:14:00] and say no, we’re already talking about it. I don’t think so, though. That issues like this, all the trusted Foundry program could be elevated maybe into Riley’s, you know, high level economic engagement talks, whether there is a more significant push into looking at issues that transcend just parochial economic matters, but have strategic interests for both countries as well, where they sort of dovetail nicely with one another. This is obviously one of them, right?

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
Connectivity to the outside world. What kind of plan is the Chinese have? Is it going to, from a commercial standpoint, is it enough? What needs to be done? Is it enough just to leave CHD to be in charge of it or is this something that the president’s office should be dealing with itself? And then CHD should be directing or and or some other company to, to, to address these issues? I would welcome seeing an issue like that all the trusted Foundry program elevated into, into the higher level so that United States can potentially partner with Taiwan in these areas.

Deepa Ollapally:
Okay. Thank you.

Deepa Ollapally:
We’re awful. We’ve got like one minute, but you did have your hand up very soundly. I’m sorry about that. Please keep it short.

Speaker 10:
Okay. [inaudible 00:15:17] with Voiceover America, China branch. Just want one question about Canada. We’re seeing reports showing interest in who have investment protection. [inaudible 00:15:27] with Taiwan, can you just talk about it? Is this something new, or this is just been under the radar for a while?

Riley Walters:
I heard about it, but I’m not too familiar with it. Sorry.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers:
I honestly, do you know, I only what I read and probably you wrote [inaudible 00:15:48] , so I listen. I know what you’re talking about. I saw it. I saw it in my Taiwan papers as well, but I hadn’t heard anything about that before this week. And candidly, I’m thrilled. Hopefully the Chinese won’t get to the Canadians in time so that something can be consummated and that the Canadians can have the courage of their convictions to follow through on it. I would hope for that, but beyond that, I’m afraid I have no insight.

Deepa Ollapally:
Well it’s always good to end on an unanswered question because it keeps it open for further discussion. But I think we’ve had two excellent speakers, great tag team, so please join me in thanking them for that.